A special session preview and Iowa caucus news

July 10 "Capitol Week" is online

Jul 11, 2023

I’m keeping this short tonight, because I need to get ready for what is shaping up to be a long day/night at the Iowa capitol Tuesday.

Normally, Dennis Hart and I record “Capitol Week” live on KHOI Radio Mondays at 7 pm, and the station rebroadcasts the show at 6 am Tuesday and noon on Wednesday.

This week, Dennis and I will be on the air live again Wednesday at noon to talk about what happened during the Iowa legislature’s special session to pass a new abortion ban. I’ll share the audio and recap of that program later in the week. Remember, you can listen to KHOI live anytime through the website, or listen to any episode of “Capitol Week” on this page.

I will be publishing several articles at Bleeding Heartland focusing on different angles of the special session and the abortion ban. Subscribe to my other free email newsletter if you want to receive links to all of those posts.

On to our July 10 show:

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Topics we covered:

Obviously, we started by previewing the special session, where Republicans will pass a near-total abortion ban that closely tracks the 2018 law (which never was allowed to take effect). You can read the 2018 bill here and the new proposal here. The main difference is that the new bill would take effect immediately after Governor Kim Reynolds signs it;
The governor portrayed the abortion ban as a popular measure, saying in her proclamation last week, "Iowans have elected representatives willing to stand up for the rights of the unborn and, in doing so, they have voted strongly in support of pro-life principles […].” But every recent statewide poll has shown that most Iowans believe abortion should be mostly legal, not mostly banned;
A few things I’ll be watching for: how many amendments are allowed during Iowa House and Senate debate, how many GOP lawmakers will skip the session, and how many Republicans will vote no (of the six House Republicans who opposed the 2018 bill, only State Representative Jane Bloomingdale still serves in the legislature);
I anticipate that most Democratic lawmakers will attend the special session and I expect many to speak during the committee discussions and floor debate; Planned Parenthood’s advocacy arm is mobilizing supporters to rally at the capitol on Tuesday and speak during the Iowa House public hearing;
Leaders of Planned Parenthood North Central States (the affiliate that includes Iowa) and the Emma Goldman Clinic in Iowa City told reporters Monday that they intend to comply with the law but will do their best to help patients obtain abortion care, even if that’s not possible in Iowa. Also, Planned Parenthood’s medical director, Dr. Sarah Traxler, said they will continue to serve Iowa patients who present before embryonic cardiac tones can be detected;
How will GOP lawmakers pass a bill in one day? We talked about the schedule and ways to speed up the legislative process;
What will happen after Reynolds signs a new ban? I highlighted an apparent contradiction in the bill, which provides for the Iowa Board of Medicine to adopt rules to administer the section on medical exemptions, but also says the bill will take effect immediately on enactment. That could cause chaos, because doctors will have no way of knowing what kind of medical emergencies would justify an abortion;
Planned Parenthood leaders made clear they intend to challenge this law, and I assume the Emma Goldman Clinic (which was a party to the lawsuit challenging the 2018 abortion ban) will also be a plaintiff. I expect the lawsuit to be filed very soon after Reynolds signs the bill, which could happen as early as Wednesday, but may happen later this week;
Even after a lawsuit is filed, it will take some time for a judge to schedule a hearing on whether to grant a preliminary injunction. In most states, judges have blocked abortion bans while litigation was pending, and I think that would be likely here, but there’s no guarantee an Iowa judge won’t allow the new law to be enforced;
We briefly covered what will be the main issue in the coming lawsuit over the new abortion ban: the standard of legal review for abortion regulations (“undue burden” or “rational basis”). I wrote about this in more depth in my Bleeding Heartland post about the Iowa Supreme Court’s recent split decision;
How common are special legislative sessions in Iowa? We talked about a few examples from the last two decades;
Some people have asked me whether there is any chance of defeating the abortion ban on Tuesday. I don’t think so, but I will be keeping my eye out for unusual parliamentary maneuvers during the House or Senate debates;
Halfway through the show, we finally got to Iowa caucus news: the Republican Party of Iowa picked January 15 for the 2024 Iowa caucuses. Like John Deeth said, “Don't write this in permanent marker yet”;
Quick reminder: the Iowa Democratic Party will hold precinct caucuses on the same night as the GOP, but will not record presidential preferences there. While the big news from the Republican caucuses will be the presidential straw poll, the Democratic caucuses will be for party business only. Democrats will mail in preference cards for the presidential race, and results will be announced weeks later;
Former President Donald Trump came back to Iowa last week for a rally in Council Bluffs;
We spent a little time on my scoop from Saturday, which has gotten a fair amount of national media attention. A brand-new group sent a mailing to lots of Iowa Republican households, purporting to “thank” Trump for supporting LGBTQ rights and transgender people. I call it a dirty trick because it’s clearly designed to diminish Trump’s appeal among potential GOP caucus-goers. We still don’t know who financed this mailing, but I updated my article a few times on Monday with some clues;
Also on Monday, Trump unloaded on Kim Reynolds in a Truth Social post. He’s bent out of shape that she is remaining “neutral” in the caucuses. Truth be told, as the New York Times reported over the weekend, the governor seems to be more favorably disposed toward Florida Governor Ron DeSantis than the former president;
Former Vice President Mike Pence was back in Iowa last week, and as usual, he had trouble getting away from the topic of Trump. We talked about his dilemma. I expect Pence to play up his support for Iowa’s new abortion ban as a way to appeal to social conservatives;
Florida’s First Lady Casey DeSantis was in Johnston last week to launch “Mamas for DeSantis” at an event featuring Reynolds;
A Washington Post article listed Reynolds as a possible GOP candidate for vice president in 2024. I don’t think she’s seriously interested. Dennis sees Kari Lake as the most likely Trump running mate; my wild guess is Senator Tim Scott;
The FAMiLY Leader’s summit is coming up on July 14. We’ll talk about this more on next Monday’s show;
We squeezed in a few minutes about the latest statistics on applicants for Iowa’s school voucher programs. When the approval numbers are final in late July, we will talk more about how this program will vastly exceed the projected costs. Tom Barton covered this story for the Cedar Rapids Gazette and Randy Richardson crunched the numbers for Bleeding Heartland.