Ashley Hinson clings to Donald Trump with an eye toward 2028

A risky strategy for 2026

President Donald Trump with Ashley Hinson in a photo first posted on Hinson’s campaign Facebook page in May 2020

This original reporting and analysis first appeared at Bleeding Heartland and is shared here as part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. For regular emails linking to all recent Bleeding Heartland articles and commentary, subscribe to the free Evening Heartland newsletter.

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in the White House have brought the U.S. an economy weakened by tariffs, a depreciating dollar, and the worst stock market performance during a new presidency since 1974. Trump now has historically low approval ratings, even on his handling of the economy—which had long been his strongest public opinion metric. Economists and market analysts increasingly see a recession likely to come this year, and consumer confidence just dropped to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But to hear U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson tell the story, the country has experienced “100 days of WINNING under President Trump!” The Republican from Iowa’s second Congressional district told reporters on May 2 that the president is “ushering in the new era, the golden age for our economy.”

Whether she’s speaking to a national television audience, her social media followers, the press, or a hostile town hall crowd, Hinson is working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to Trump.

Her tight embrace of a polarizing president could hurt her with swing voters in 2026 but may be essential for her 2028 ambitions.

“MY MISSION IN WASHINGTON”

When Hinson announced on April 29 that she won’t run for governor in 2026, she said in a written statement,

After much prayer and conversation with family and friends, I have decided to stay focused on my mission in Washington, working with President Trump to Make America Great Again. We have a unique, once-in-a-generation opportunity to make real, lasting change in our country right now, and I’m committed to the fight to make Washington run more like Iowa.

She certainly has been focused on the mission.

She’s praised Trump frequently on her official and campaign-related social media. The only video clip she shared from her April 24 town hall meeting in Mason City was a portion of her opening remarks: “The president is fighting for you, and I do think that God saved the president in Butler, Pennsylvania for a reason. He saved the president, and I believe the president is working with us to help save the country.” That’s a callback to Trump’s bold claim during his inaugural address: “I was saved by God to make America great again.”

She’s gone on Fox News and Newsmax to tout the president’s accomplishments and pledge her commitment to help pass his “one, big beautiful bill” with tax and spending cuts.

She’s vouched for Elon Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency, including DOGE’s access to confidential taxpayer information. As a member of the House Appropriations Committee, Hinson is fine with DOGE slashing spending and programs previously authorized by Congress.

Hinson has also defended Trump’s deportation policies, including the lack of due process for those the administration labels criminals or terrorists. She told the audience in Mason City, “Look, we’ve got so many that if we had every single one of these people have an individual hearing it would take 100 years.”

I could give many more examples, but you get the picture. Instead of demonstrating she will put her district first, even if that means standing up to her own party’s leaders, Hinson is leaving no daylight between herself and Trump on any issue.

In the short term, that could be a risky play.

TRUMP COULD BE A DRAG ON HOUSE REPUBLICANS IN 2026

We don’t have any recent public polling on how Iowans view Trump. But numerous nationwide polls indicate he has lost a lot of support since his inauguration. More than one pollster has found Trump’s approval rating lower than what previous presidents had at this point in their tenure. G. Elliott Morris created this graph for his Strength in Numbers newsletter.

According to a nationwide PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released last week, 45 percent of respondents gave Trump an “F” for his first 100 days in office—more than those who would give him an “A” (23 percent) or a “B” (17 percent) combined. The same survey found, “About half of U.S. adults say Trump’s second term has had a mostly negative effect on their lives, and a majority believe he is rushing to make changes without considering the effects of his actions.”

In contrast, Hinson celebrated Trump’s first 100 days with a statement about his “unprecedented successes.” Multiple social media posts echoed that spin.

Hinson’s take on DOGE may not age well if the cuts interfere with government services or benefits Iowans need. Kevin Techau, the Democratic challenger in IA-02, is already connecting the dots between Hinson and the “unelected, unaccountable billionaire,” saying Hinson “marches in lockstep with Elon Musk and his reckless, ruthless war on the middle class.”

As for “America First trade deals,” Trump hasn’t signed (much less implemented) any new trade agreements. On the contrary, he’s changed course many times on his planned tariffs, creating confusion and uncertainty for business owners as well as foreign leaders.

Hinson has warned that an average family in her district would pay $1,300 more in taxes if Congress doesn’t extend tax cuts that Trump signed into law in 2017. But the Yale Budget Lab has estimated that Trump’s tariffs could cost the average U.S. household $4,900 this year.

Making matters worse, thousands of Hinson’s constituents could lose their health insurance in 2026, either due to Medicaid cuts or Affordable Care Act plans that become prohibitively expensive after Congressional Republicans let subsidies lapse.

Democratic ad makers will be grateful that Hinson released a video of herself touting Trump’s supposed accomplishments over the first 100 days. If tariffs crash the economy and Iowa’s agriculture sector in particular, don’t be surprised to see parts of this clip end up in 30-second commercials. (“President Trump has put us back on that path to prosperity […] He is unleashing American energy. He's putting that first to help get costs down for all of us [...] fighting for fair trade deals and new export markets, ensuring that our interests finally come first.”)

You may wonder about the point of all this performative MAGA worship. Unlike Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s first district, Hinson isn’t facing a primary challenger from the right.

Moreover, she outperformed Trump across the 22 counties in her district last year, beating her Democratic challenger by nearly 16 points in a district Trump carried by 10. Although Trump’s coattails pulled Hinson over the line in her first Congressional race in 2020, it might be wise for House Republicans to put a little distance between themselves and an unpopular president in the 2026 midterms. IA-02 is a GOP-leaning district, but it’s not nearly as red as the fourth district, covering northwest Iowa. If next year’s election shapes up to be a Democratic wave comparable to 2006, Hinson could lose.

She’s playing a longer game.

TRUMP WILL LIKELY BE A KINGMAKER IN 2028

Conventional wisdom holds that endorsements don’t matter in campaigns, and lame-duck presidents have declining influence as they approach the end of their second term.

But if we’ve learned one thing in the Trump era, it’s that old rules don’t apply to this president.

Hinson’s statement ruling out the governor’s race alluded to an “outpouring of support and encouragement from people all across Iowa asking me to run for Governor.” But let’s get real: she would have no chance of winning a statewide primary without Trump’s public support. And she could not hope to land that endorsement while competing against a Republican with better MAGA credentials, such as Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird or former acting U.S. Attorney General Matt Whitaker.

Anyway, it’s an open secret that when Hinson runs for higher office, it will be for U.S. Senate in 2028. (She already signaled she doesn’t plan to spend her whole career in the U.S. House when she declined to seek a GOP leadership position after last year’s election.)

In a sense, Hinson is making up for lost time. Whereas her friend and longtime ally Elise Stefanik (a House Republican from New York) went all in on Trump’s 2020 election lies and got behind his 2024 campaign early, Hinson voted to certify the 2020 electoral vote count and was late to jump on board with Trump’s third bid for the White House. She announced her support for the former president one week after the Iowa caucuses.

Jonathan Martin reported for Politico in January 2024,

When Rep. Ashley Hinson told Trump’s lieutenants she’d remain neutral she was told that she could expect no more, and perhaps less, than neutrality from Trump when the day came she wanted to succeed the 90-year-old dean of the delegation, Sen. Charles Grassley, according to people familiar with the conversation.

There were valid reasons for Hinson not to endorse before the caucuses. Some influential Republicans and big donors were in other camps. Notably, Governor Kim Reynolds—who would have the power to appoint a new U.S. senator if Grassley became unable to serve out his term—was actively supporting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

But we all know Trump holds grudges. So Hinson has a lot of work to do to convince him not to weigh in against her in a 2028 statewide primary. The “Complete and Total Endorsement!” he gave her in 2022 may be out of reach.

The upshot is that Hinson may feel more pressure to please the “audience of one” in the White House than to cater to swing voters or independents. All the more reason for Democrats to make a serious play for the northeast Iowa Congressional district next year.