Breaking down the Iowa election results
November 14 edition of "Capitol Week" is online
KHOI Radio gave Dennis Hart and me a full hour this week, instead of the usual 30 minutes to break down Iowa’s federal, statewide, and state legislative elections.
You can find the audio files for any episode of “Capitol Week” on this page. Here’s the November 14 edition:
Thanks to the extra time, Dennis and I were able to cover a lot of ground in the latest show:
The U.S. Senate race: recap of results and the key factors in Chuck Grassley’s 12-point win against Mike Franken;
Warning signs for Democrats in the first Congressional district race, where Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks won all but one county en route to beating Christina Bohannan;
The continuing drift away from Democrats in Iowa’s “micropolitan” areas, the cities with populations between 10,000 and 40,000 (I’ve been writing about this trend since November 2018, most recently last Wednesday);
The second Congressional district race, where Liz Mathis won only two counties, and Representative Ashley Hinson carried the rest, including onetime Democratic stronghold Dubuque County;
The third Congressional district race, and where Representative Cindy Axne underperformed in losing to Zach Nunn by about 2,000 votes (0.6 percent);
The fourth Congressional district race, where Representative Randy Feenstra outperformed even the strong Republican advantage of the area;
How the lopsided governor’s race (a 19-point win for Governor Kim Reynolds) appears to have hurt down-ballot Democratic candidates, as many in the party had feared would happen since January;
Key factors in Attorney General Tom Miller’s loss to Brenna Bird;
The state treasurer’s race, where long-serving Democratic incumbent Mike Fitzgerald fell short after spending little money (with some attention to the deficit in mid-sized counties where Democrats used to rack up leads);
State Auditor Rob Sand’s close shave against under-funded challenger Todd Halbur (although Halbur has asked for a recount, that’s extremely unlikely to change the outcome);
The 2 to 1 vote for a state constitutional amendment to enshrine gun rights as “fundamental,” and the litigation that will likely ensue to challenge existing firearms regulations;
The judicial retention election results;
The future Iowa Senate landscape, plus some thoughts on how State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott managed to beat Senate President Jake Chapman (the only battleground state Senate race that went to a Democrat);
Iowa Senate Republicans choosing Amy Sinclair to be the next Senate president;
The future Iowa House landscape (a few races are headed to recounts, so final numbers are not yet available), with some thoughts on David Young’s victory in the most expensive state House race of this cycle;
My take on the overall turnout, which was higher than 2010 and 2014 but substantially down from 2018;
The shrinking number of Iowa counties where Democratic candidates are competitive;
What the legislative campaign results may mean for abortion restrictions in Iowa;
The fallout for Iowa as the Democratic National Committee prepares to finalize the 2024 presidential nominating calendar;
Libertarians qualifying for major-party status after Rick Stewart cleared the 2 percent threshold in the governor’s race, and what that could mean for Iowa’s 2024 elections;
Governor Reynolds’ chances to get her school voucher bill through the Iowa House, now that Republicans will have a larger majority;
Advances for women’s representation in the Iowa legislature (I covered this in more detail at Bleeding Heartland);
The greater diversity coming to the statehouse in 2023 (this Bleeding Heartland post highlights the newly-elected legislators who are people of color, identify as part of the LGBTQ community, or adhere to a non-Christian faith tradition);
The challenging path forward for Iowa Democrats after experiencing a red wave, even as the party’s candidates did well in many other states;
Whether Reynolds may be on the next Republican presidential nominee’s short list for VP.
Final note: KHOI is in the middle of its fall fundraising drive. Community radio means no commercials (and no advertising revenue). If you have any cash to spare, please consider becoming a KHOI member to support the station’s diverse talk and music programming, including several locally-produced shows.
I’m proud to be part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative, which continues to grow. Check out some of the other authors, listed here in alphabetical order: