Conservative group attempted image makeover for Brenna Bird

Iowa's AG has surprisingly bad poll numbers

Screenshot from the Fund for Economic Independence ad used in October

This original reporting and analysis first appeared at Bleeding Heartland and is shared here as part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. For regular emails linking to all recent Bleeding Heartland articles and commentary, subscribe to the free Evening Heartland newsletter.

A little-known conservative group based in Virginia spent heavily in October to run a 30-second positive ad about Attorney General Brenna Bird on television and streaming services across Iowa.

The Fund for Economic Independence later claimed their commercial “sharply” improved Bird’s image with “targeted persuadable voters,” moving her from a 7-point deficit to a tie in a ballot test against Democratic challenger Nate Willems.

While it’s impossible to confirm whether that commercial measurably helped Bird with swing voters, one thing is clear: more than a year before the 2026 midterm election, the attorney general’s polling numbers were bad enough to inspire a well-funded outside rescue mission.

WHAT IS THE FUND FOR ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE?

The Fund for Economic Independence has all the hallmarks of a “dark money” group. The organization’s website is nothing but a landing page, which shows the name and an address corresponding to a Parcel Plus mailbox in Alexandria, Virginia.

A Virginia government database indicates that the group was formed in June 2024. The Fund for Economic Independence has tax-exempt status and reported to the IRS that it raised less than $50,000 during the 2024 fiscal year. I have not been able to find any further details about its funding, which must have increased more than tenfold this year.

Two of the group’s three directors, Steve Roberts and Nicole Kelly, are well-connected Republican attorneys, and the third, Whitney Richland, is a governmental finance and accounting consultant who previously worked in South Carolina county government. At some point after forming the Fund for Economic Independence, Roberts and Kelly left the Holtzman Vogel law firm to work for Lex Politica, which aspires to be “synonymous with the conservative movement” and the top legal counsel for the campaign arms of U.S. House and Senate Republicans and for GOP megadonor Elon Musk.

I could find no record of any activity by the Fund for Economic Independence during the 2024 election cycle. Roberts’ bio on the Lex Politica website describes him as “passionate about maximizing the ability of the corporate and PAC community to engage in the political and policy space.”

His legal advice isn’t intended to “get to yes” – it starts with “yes” and then figures out how to achieve his clients’ policy and political goals, including Fortune 500 companies, trade associations, corporate PACs, non-profits, elected officials, star political candidates and campaigns, national party committees, and others engaged in policy fights at the federal, state, and local level.

The Lex Politica website describes Kelly as “an all-around political operative, having worked in almost every type of political role in her decade of experience in politics. Her comprehensive legal practice focuses on advising clients on election and political law compliance under federal, state, and local campaign finance, lobbying, government ethics, and tax-exempt organization laws.”

The Fund for Economic Independence created an account on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) in January 2025, but does not appear to have posted on the platform until October 10, when it put up a video of a 30-second ad praising Iowa’s attorney general. For weeks, that was the only post on the group’s X feed.

“KEEPING IOWA SAFE: OUR ATTORNEY GENERAL, BRENNA BIRD”

Since posts on X don’t embed on Substack, I’m sharing my screen capture of the commercial. You can view the original video on the pinned X tweet.

A casual viewer might assume Bird’s campaign committee created this video. You have to watch closely to see “PAID FOR BY FUND FOR ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE” in small font at the bottom of the screen near the end of the ad.

The production value is so-so, but the spot drives home a simple message while raising the candidate’s name identification. To reach viewers who turn down the volume during commercial breaks, words on screen show Bird’s name repeatedly, paired with other slogans suggesting she is tough on crime against children.

Here’s my annotated transcript:

Male voice-over: Criminals target the most vulnerable among us—especially children. [Shadowy footage of man, then image of empty swing set]

But Brenna Bird won’t let them hurt our kids. [Footage of Bird speaking at the 2024 Republican National Convention. Words on screen “BRENNA BIRD WON’T LET THEM HURT OUR KIDS”]

As attorney general, Bird stood against pro-crime attorneys who hand out lenient sentences to violent offenders. [Photo of Bird smiling, then shadowy footage of criminal defendants and their lawyers; words on screen “BRENNA BIRD STOOD AGAINST PRO CRIME ATTORNEYS LENIENT SENTENCES”]

Instead, Bird partnered with tough-on-crime prosecutors across Iowa. [Footage that looks like a defendant and a white-haired male judge about to bang his gavel; words on screen “BRENNA BIRD PARTNERED WITH PROSECUTORS”]

To keep dangerous felons off our streets. [words on screen “BRENNA BIRD KEPT FELONS OFF OUR STREETS”]

And Brenna Bird has led the fight [photo of Bird at press conference, “BRENNA BIRD” on screen]

to prosecute cybercrimes and harmful AI imagery that victimize children. [footage of two girls lying on their stomachs scrolling on their phones; words on screen “BRENNA BIRD PROSECUTE CYBERCRIMES THAT VICTIMIZE CHILDREN”]

Keeping Iowa safe: our Attorney General, Brenna Bird. [footage of Bird speaking at RNC; words on screen “THANK ATTORNEY GENERAL BRENNA BIRD FOR KEEPING IOWA SAFE (515) 281-5164”]

Bird’s 2022 campaign benefited from massive outside help, including $2 million in direct contributions from the RAGA Action Fund (the campaign arm of the Republican Attorneys General Association) and indirect help from RAGA worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, such as mass mailings.

But it’s extremely unusual for any outside group to run a television commercial about a statewide candidate more than a year before the election.

A memo published in early November shows why this organization made a big play in Iowa.

BIRD “REBOUNDED STRONGLY” AFTER AD CAMPAIGN

Aside from the TV ad, the only post on the Fund for Economic Independence X feed is a picture of a polling memo dated November 6. You can read it in full here.

To be clear: I can’t vouch for the accuracy of this poll or independently confirm any of its findings. The memo doesn’t tell us which firm the Fund for Economic Independence hired to conduct the surveys, which methods were used (phone, text, or online), how “likely 2026 general election voters in Iowa” were screened, the question order, or how the surveys described the candidates.

It’s also worth noting that a dark money group would have incentive to exaggerate the effectiveness of its advertising. A memo like this would serve as proof of concept when the Fund for Economic Independence solicits major donors to support its efforts on other 2026 races.

With those caveats out of the way, the numbers provided are stunning. A baseline poll of 600 Iowa voters from September found Bird trailing Democratic attorney general candidate Willems by 46 percent to 39 percent. Bird’s favorability was way underwater: just 21 percent of respondents had a favorable view of her, and 40 percent an unfavorable one.

A follow-up survey of 1,056 voters from late October and early November (after the commercials aired) found Bird and Willems tied at 41 percent in a ballot test. The Republican’s image had also “improved sharply,” measuring 25 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable.

Side note: if other Republican polling showed this kind of weakness, it would explain why Bird (seen as a leading potential GOP candidate to succeed Governor Kim Reynolds) never landed Donald Trump’s endorsement and eventually bowed out of the governor’s race.

Meaning no disrespect to Willems—he isn’t widely known to Iowans. He has been campaigning around the state since May, but hasn’t advertised on radio or television and hasn’t been in the news often. I am shocked that a sitting statewide official would trail or even be tied with any Democratic challenger at this stage. I would guess that a large portion of respondents who preferred Willems in these surveys were in effect saying, “not Brenna Bird.”

The Fund for Economic Independence claims to have “invested $600,000” to advertise on linear television (that is, broadcast and cable) and streaming services during October. I can’t verify that number, but documents on the Federal Communications Commission website reveal hundreds of thousands of dollars in ad buys with various television stations.

Staff for the Willems campaign told Bleeding Heartland they calculated $231,000 in spending across stations in the Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Sioux City markets. That wouldn’t include any money spent to advertise on streaming services. Invoices published on the FCC’s website indicate that the pro-Bird ad primarily aired during college or pro football games. Click on any of the following links to view examples from KCCI, WHO, and KDSM in Des Moines, or KCRG, KGAN, and QGAN in Cedar Rapids.

According to the memo, “Bird’s 7-point ballot gain is driven primarily by movement among Independents and suburban voters. These two groups have significant overlap with our targeted persuasion audience.”

The memo also claimed, “The campaign reached 81% of the identified audience with an average frequency of 13.” I noticed that the baseline survey was in the field on weekdays only (Tuesday, September 9 through Thursday, September 11), while the follow-up poll was in the field over a weekend (Thursday, October 30 through Sunday, November 2). That may be why the poll captured many voters who had seen the ad; if you routinely watch football on Saturdays and Sundays, you may also be at home when a pollster tries to reach you over a weekend.

IS BIRD REALLY “PROTECTING ALL IOWANS”?

The Fund for Economic Independence memo asserts that its ad campaign “highlighted AG Bird’s leadership to keep Iowa’s kids safe by showing clear actions that demonstrate her record of being tough on crime and protecting all Iowans.”

Next year, Bird’s campaign and Republican-aligned groups will spend millions to create the impression that the attorney general has used her position to fight for Iowans.

The core message for Willems, a former state legislator and longtime attorney representing workers and labor unions, is that Bird hasn’t used her power for the benefit of most constituents. He told me in May that he’s running “because I want the Attorney General’s office to be focused on protecting and helping regular Iowans, not getting involved in Washington political fights or filing political lawsuits.”

In addition to working with county attorneys to prosecute violent crimes and other serious felonies, Willems wants the office “to investigate and prosecute corporations when they steal wages from their workers.” Employers steal an estimated $900 million a year from Iowans through crimes such as not paying overtime, having people work off the clock, stealing tips, misclassifying workers as contractors, and illegal deductions from paychecks. Yet state government does “almost nothing” to combat any of those crimes, Willems observed.

Bird has hired additional lawyers and allocated more staff to lawsuits targeting Biden administration policies or laws enacted in blue states. Willems told me he would likely redeploy some of those attorneys to work on in-state issues. The AG’s office is the “largest law firm in the state of Iowa and the only one that’s supposed to be dedicated to helping regular people in Iowa,” he said. “And that should be the focus, the mission of the office.”

Watch our whole conversation from May:

This fall, I sought comment from the Democrat’s campaign on the TV ad from the Fund for Economic Independence. Sam Roecker, a senior adviser to the Willems campaign, told me, “Instead of using her position to fight for Iowans, Brenna Bird has spent her time in the AG’s office pursuing an extreme and divisive agenda. It’s no surprise that right-wing groups are rushing in to support her and already spending money in this race. Nate Willems has already built an impressive campaign and has a lifelong record of working to protect Iowans by holding corporations accountable.”

For Iowa politics watchers, the wide-open races for governor and U.S. Senate have sucked up most of the oxygen this year. But the attorney general’s race will surely be another 2026 campaign worth watching.