Dems weigh IA-03 campaigns, Walz in Iowa, news from the statehouse

March 17 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

I spent Monday afternoon at the capitol and can confirm that many people were wearing green to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day. I snapped this photo showing part of the House chamber while State Representative Hans Wilz (standing) was floor managing a bill to regulate the use of tanning beds by teenagers.

The audio file from our March 17 show is embedded above, or you can find “KHOI’s Capitol Week” on any podcast platform or smart speaker. The full archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.

Three Democrats consider running in IA-03

For a change of pace,

Spencer Dirks

and I started with some 2026 campaign news. As

Dave Price

of Gray TV (and the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative) was first to report last week, three Democrats are taking a serious look at running for Congress against Zach Nunn in Iowa’s third district.

I gave some background on Iowa House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, State Representative Austin Baeth, and State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott, adding comments each of them gave to me, Dave, and the Des Moines Register.

Baeth indicated to me that he will probably make up his mind before the end of the legislative session. While he wants to “put a check on Donald Trump,” his number one priority is figuring out whether he can “give my entire heart and soul to this role without harming my family.” He’s been talking with doctors who have run for Congress in other states to learn more about what it takes and whether this is something he and his family can handle.

We probably won’t hear a final decision from Konfrst or Trone Garriott until after the legislative session. Family considerations loom large as Trone Garriott weighs her options; she has school-aged kids. Baeth has very young children, while Konfrst is an empty nester.

I doubt we will see all three of these candidates compete against each other in a Democratic primary. If one or more decide to run, one or both of the others may stay out.

As for selling points: all three are very well-spoken. Konfrst and Trone Garriott have much more fundraising experience than Baeth. Lots of doctors (from both parties) have been elected to Congress, though, which could be a selling point for Baeth. Trone Garriott emphasized that she has “won three competitive seats three cycles in a row” and is “one of the few Democrats in the state who is in a Republican-leaning seat.” She’s also the only one who has campaigned extensively in Dallas County, an important county for the race. (About three-quarters of voters in IA-03 as a whole live in Polk and Dallas counties. The path to beating Nunn is to run up the score in Polk, keep it close in Dallas, and not get blown out everywhere else.)

Remember that the filing deadline is not until mid-March 2026. So even if one or more of these candidates announce plans to run for Congress, they could always change course and stay where they are. Baeth and Konfrst would have to give up their Iowa House seats in order to seek higher office. Trone Garriott was just re-elected to a four-year term, so she could run against Nunn without risking her Senate seat.

Whoever becomes the Democratic nominee, Iowa’s third district will be among the top-targeted U.S. House races in the country. Nunn didn’t outperform Donald Trump in the 2024 election and won by less than a 1-point margin in 2022. Democratic-aligned groups are already spending money against Nunn. It’s notable that the incumbent’s social media feeds are full of posts about his supposed bipartisan work.

If a Libertarian candidate makes it onto the ballot next cycle, that person would probably take more votes from Nunn than the Democratic nominee. I also wouldn’t rule out the prospect of a GOP primary challenger, which would force Nunn to spend a lot of time and money on the race before the 2026 primary. The MAGA Republican wing has never been wild about Nunn.

Tim Walz comes to Des Moines

Democratic activists mostly filled the large Roosevelt High School auditorium on a sunny Friday afternoon to see Minnesota Governor and 2024 vice presidential nominee Tim Walz. (Konfrst and Trone Garriott were working the crowd for about an hour beforehand.)

The main purpose of the event was to call attention to Nunn’s refusal to hold a town hall meeting. This isn’t a recent development; to my knowledge, as a member of Congress Nunn has never held an event that is open to the public and announced in advance, where constituents could ask him questions in full view of the media.

Walz delivered a lot of crowd-pleasing lines and previewed the case Democrats will make against Nunn and other House Republicans in 2026. The event lacked spontaneity, as the Iowa Democratic Party had selected the questions in advance. But it drew a lot of media coverage and was a morale-booster to activists who have been feeling demoralized since the 2024 election.

I didn’t mention this on the show, but before the town hall I spoke with Konfrst and Polk County Democrats executive director Kira Barker about what Democrats can do right now to get involved. I posted those exchanges on Bleeding Heartland’s YouTube channel.

Zachary Oren Smith

, Kathie Obradovich, and I discussed the prospective third district candidates and the Walz town hall on the latest Iowa Down Ballot podcast as well.

How other Iowans in Congress approach town halls

While we were on the subject, I wanted to mention whether Iowa’s other members of Congress hold town halls. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) rarely hold an event in their district that is open to the public and announced in advance. Miller-Meeks occasionally holds telephone town halls, where staff control who has the microphone and can avoid unfriendly questions or follow-ups.

Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) does hold some town halls and recently promised to continue the practice in every county in her district. I have to rely on reporting by the Cedar Rapids Gazette and Des Moines Register on this, since Hinson’s staff never allow me to participate in her regular conference calls with reporters.

Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst do take unscripted questions from Iowans from time to time, but the senators’ events that are open to the public are mostly in red counties. (I saw Ernst take questions from a friendly crowd in Winterset last year.) It’s been a long time since either of them held a town hall in one of Iowa’s larger cities.

Takeaways from the House district 100 special election

The Iowa House will soon have a full contingent of 100 members, after Republican Blaine Watkins won last Tuesday’s special election in House district 100. I covered this race in depth at Bleeding Heartland. Key points:

Watkins underperformed, receiving about 51.5 percent of the vote to 48.2 percent for Democrat Nannette Griffin, in a district that Trump won by 27 points in November.

Griffin followed the same playbook as Mike Zimmer and did just as well in terms of exceeding the Democratic baseline. But a 24-point swing in the margin was enough for Zimmer to win the special election in Iowa Senate district 35, and not quite enough for Griffin in House district 100.

The state Republican Party and GOP-aligned groups spent far more on the House district 100 race than they did to boost their candidate against Zimmer. Details on the campaign spending can be found here.

Watkins continues a trend of Republicans nominating young former legislative clerks for the state House. State Representatives Devon Wood, Taylor Collins, and David Blom are a few recent examples. This helps leadership because clerks know the system and rarely if ever will cause problems. None of those legislators have been among the Republicans who voted against some high-profile bills in recent years.

State budget news

We started our state legislative coverage with news on something the Iowa House and Senate have not done: pass a K-12 school funding bill.

We’re a month past the deadline for the legislature to set the level of per pupil state funding, which is the largest part of public school district budgets. State Senator Janice Weiner highlighted this failure at the Democratic leaders’ press conference last Thursday. She noted that school districts need to submit their draft budgets by March 15, have to finalize those budgets by April 15, and need to finalize teacher contracts by April 30.

The holdup is that Governor Kim Reynolds and Iowa Senate Republicans want a 2 percent increase in per pupil funding, which represents about $100 million in additional state money for public school districts. House Republicans want to raise per pupil funding by 2.25 percent and add some one-time funding that would work out to just under $150 million.

House Speaker Pat Grassley told reporters on Thursday that negotiations are ongoing and he keeps telling his counterparts that “the House feels very strongly” about its package. It’s unclear when this legislation will come to the floor in either chamber.

Democrats say both Republican positions are inadequate and schools need a 5 percent increase in per pupil funding just to maintain the programs they have. 

Thinking more broadly about the state budget, Iowa’s Revenue Estimating Conference confirmed last Thursday that state revenue is on a downward trend, largely due to income and corporate tax cuts that have phased in.

I didn’t want to throw a lot of numbers at listeners, but the key point is that for this current year, Iowa’s revenue is estimated to be around $621 million less than last year. And there’s likely to be another drop of more than $600 million from this year to next year.

The state will have to use hundreds of millions of dollars from the ending balance—the surplus funds—to balance the books.

Democrats harshly criticized this approach as using one-time money for ongoing expenses.

Grassley told reporters some decline in revenue was expected. He emphasized that Republicans planned for and prepared for this, building up nearly $4 billion what’s called the “taxpayer relief fund,” and also nearly $2 billion in the ending balance.

Department of Management Director Kraig Paulsen likewise told reporters that the conference expects state revenues to rebound in 2027. That scenario hasn’t played out in other states that enacted deep tax cuts. If there is an economic downturn, Iowa could see big budget shortfalls in the coming years, especially since school voucher spending will continue to increase.

It will probably be a few more weeks before we see any details on Republican spending plans for fiscal year 2026, which begins on July 1.

Bills approved in the Iowa House or Senate

Before the March 7 “funnel” deadline, committee work dominated the action at the statehouse. But both chambers have had busy debate calendars since then, passing dozens of bills last week. They need to get these bills over to the other chamber now so they can get through a committee in time for the second funnel deadline on April 4.

Most of the bills approved last week were not controversial and passed with overwhelming bipartisan support. Some of these can be on really obscure or hyper-local concerns. For instance, last week the House passed a bill expanding allowable boat coverings on docks. House File 710 is apparently a priority for residents Carter Lake, just over the Missouri River from Council Bluffs. The states of Iowa and Nebraska currently have different regulations on this.

A couple of times last week, bills that seemed to be more contentious were pulled from the debate calendar at the last minute. The Senate did not debate the governor’s early childhood education/child care proposal last Tuesday. Bills to restrict local government regulation of fireworks were pulled in both chambers. That could means leaders didn’t have the votes to pass the measure, or that someone is working on an amendment to the bill.

Health care

One controversial bill the Iowa House approved a bill was House File 516, designed to address the state’s doctor shortage. Only a handful of Democrats voted for it. 

The central provision was a requirement that the University of Iowa’s medical and dentistry colleges change their admission practices so that at least 80 percent of admitted students are Iowa residents or people enrolled at Iowa colleges. The idea is that those students are more likely to stay in Iowa to practice after medical school. An amendment pulled in some other ways to give Iowans priority for interviews, residencies, and fellowships.

Democratic State Representative Heather Matson spoke against the bill, highlighting the loss of out-of-state tuition for the University of Iowa. She and other Democrats also feel that Iowa needs to be a more welcoming place for physicians if we want more to practice here.

On March 17, House members approved by 83 votes to 13 House File 524, which would restrict the use of tanning beds by people under 18. It’s the first of a series of bills planned to address Iowa’s high cancer rate.

State Representative Hans Wilz emphasized that this is only one piece of the puzzle related to Iowa’s high and rising cancer race. But addressing the causes of cancer is as important as research on cancer. We know that melanoma cases are rising, and exposure at a young age can be dangerous.

The original bill would have banned the use of tanning beds by Iowans under 16 and required written parental consent required for 16- and 17-year-olds. An amendment adopted during floor debate changed the bill, so parental consent is required for anyone under 18. It applies to all facilities–not just salons but also tanning beds in places like apartment buildings. The consent form would have to include the following statement: “UV tanning devices increase the risk of melanoma, a particularly deadly type of skin cancer. UV radiation is most dangerous when exposed at a young age.”

I wanted to mention House File 644, which received little if any media coverage last week. The purpose of the bill was to allow foster parents to consent to routine medical care for children in their care. That could cover annual physicals or something like getting strep throat treated without waiting for permission from the biological parent or a court order.

The measure had bipartisan support, but there was a partisan twist to the debate. The definition of “routine medical care” excluded vaccinations. 

Baeth offered an amendment to make a good bill better by allowing foster parents to consent to vaccinations. As a primary care doctor, he said while medicine was important, those are far less powerful than the vaccines they administer. In light of the large measles outbreak in Texas and other states, this is needed to take care of vulnerable children. If we’re allowing foster parents to take kids to regular physicals, the work won’t be completed unless the doctor can give vaccines—which are even safer than the antibiotics they would prescribe for strep throat, Baeth pointed out.

Not a single Republican voted for Baeth’s amendment, which says a lot about how vaccine skepticism has become entrenched in the Iowa GOP.

Crime and courts

For the fourth time, the Iowa House approved an “anti-SLAPP” bill (House File 472). This time, the vote was unanimous (one Republican voted against the same legislation in 2023).

A SLAPP is a “strategic lawsuit against public participation,” used to punish or intimidate people over speech or expression. The floor manager, State Representative Steven Holt, explained that he became interested in the issue after the Carroll Times Herald was sued over accurate coverage of a local police officer who had relationships with teenage girls. Although the newspaper successfully defended itself in court, legal costs totaled more than $100,000 and were devastating financially.

The question is when (or whether) this bill will be debated in the Iowa Senate. For the first time this year, the Senate Judiciary Committee approved companion anti-SLAPP legislation. But Senate File 47 hasn’t made it onto the debate calendar yet.

On a related note, David Enrich’s new book Murder the Truth, which is getting great reviews, has a chapter about the Carroll newspaper saga. Enrich interviewed

Douglas Burns

(the former publisher of the Carroll newspaper) and reporter Jared Strong, whose coverage was targeted in the lawsuit.

Last week, both the House and Senate approved an update to Iowa’s open container law, so that drinks infused with THC would be covered. The Senate passed House File 181 unanimously. The only vote against the bill in the House came from Republican State Representative Jeff Shipley.

On Monday, the Senate voted yet again along party lines to change Iowa’s judicial nominating system. State Senator Julian Garrett has been working on this for years. Senate File 407 would remove the senior judge from the district judicial nominating commissions, and would give the governor one extra appointee to those bodies. The upshot would be that the governor’s appointees would outnumber elected attorneys to the commissions, which send the governor lists of finalists for District Court vacancies.

The Iowa Judicial Branch opposes this change, as does most of the legal community. House Republicans have also opposed removing judges from the nominating commissions; in January, State Representative Brian Lohse told me this effort is still a non-starter in his caucus.

Remembering Janet Metcalf

Former State Representative Janet Metcalf passed away last week at the age of 89. She represented parts of the Des Moines suburbs in the Iowa House for 18 years. But she got her start in politics in an unusual way. Sabine Martin reported for the Des Moines Register, “Metcalf launched her political advocacy career as a treasurer and lobbyist of Iowans for Medical Control of Abortion, which was established in the late '60s to urge lawmakers to pass legislation to legalize abortion in Iowa.”

She was my own state representative and lived in my Windsor Heights neighborhood. (I didn’t mention this during the show, but Janet Metcalf’s daughter Carolyn was an occasional babysitter for me. This was well before Janet was elected to the legislature.)

Metcalf was board president of Planned Parenthood in the late 1970s, before running for office. After retiring from the state legislature, she continued to support Planned Parenthood and also served several terms on the board of trustees for Broadlawns, the Polk County public hospital. (That’s an elected position.)

We mentioned on last week’s show that former State Senator Jack Kibbie was a kind of legislator who doesn’t exist anymore in Iowa: a rural Democrat. By the same token, Metcalf represents what used to be relatively common in Iowa politics: a pro-choice suburban Republican. Those have disappeared because of the political realignment in Iowa and nationally.

The last pro-choice Republican to serve in the Iowa Senate, Maggie Tinsman, lost her 2006 primary. The last pro-choice Republican to serve in the Iowa House, Libby Jacobs, retired in 2008.

The last anti-abortion Democrat to serve in the Iowa legislature was Dolores Mertz, who retired from the state House in 2010.

24 Iowa counties among top 100 nationally for swing from Obama to Trump

I wanted to flag this great post by Nick Conway, which I published at Bleeding Heartland last week. He created maps and a table to illustrate how presidential voting has changed at the county level. Remarkably, 24 Iowa counties that are among the top 100 in the U.S. for the shift from Barack Obama’s vote share in 2012 to Donald Trump’s vote share in 2024.

All of these counties that had a swing of at least 39 points in presidential voting from 2012 to 2024. 

Most are in eastern Iowa, where Democrats had further to fall. Three are in the top 25 counties nationally. All are dominated by white voters without a college degree. On that list of 100 counties nationally, almost all were either dominated by white non-college or heavily Latino counties.

Several of them have a relatively high proportion of Catholic residents (Chickasaw, Howard, Jackson, Delaware, Buchanan, Fayette).

Three are among the counties containing mid-sized cities, which I’ve highlighted before as a particular problem for Iowa Democrats: Wapello County (Ottumwa), Lee County (Keokuk and Fort Madison), and Clinton County (Clinton).

Iowa impact of federal funding cuts or freezes

We only had a minute or two to discuss this, but I will continue to keep an eye on how the Trump/Elon Musk ransacking of the federal government is harming Iowans.

All six Iowans in Congress voted last week for a bill authorizing spending for the rest of the current federal fiscal year, which ends on September 30. But just because Congress approved it doesn’t mean all of the money will be spent. The so-called “continuing spending resolution” gives the Trump administration a lot of flexibility on how funds are allocated.

We continue to see reports of disruptions to programs in Iowa because previously approved federal funds are either frozen or contracts were canceled.

Last week, news broke that the USDA terminated state contracts for two programs that the agency committed to last year. They would have covered $11.3 million in programs that support farms, food hubs, local foods in schools or food banks.

The Iowa Farmers Union said in a statement, “Producers who have already planned over $3 million in food sales in 2025 through these programs now face sudden financial uncertainty. Our members ramped up production, expanded operations, and made investments in response to what seemed like a guaranteed market to schools and food access sites. Farmers who scaled up their businesses to meet the demand of these programs now don’t know how they’ll recoup costs.”

Earlier this month, the University of Iowa announced that the State Department ended funding for the International Writing Program.

More than 1,600 established writers from more than 160 countries have participated since the program was founded in 1967. For their efforts to promote cultural diplomacy by convening writers from around the world, IWP co-founders Paul and Hualing Engle were nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1976.

Three IWP participants have won the Nobel Prize in Literature: Han Kang of South Korea (2024), Istanbul-born novelist Orhan Pamuk (2006), and Chinese novelist Mo Yan (2012). Sri Lankan author Shehan Karunatilaka won the 2022 Booker Prize.

Finally, Lutheran Services in Iowa is laying off about 30 staff around the state because the federal government hasn't reimbursed the nonprofit for about $1.5 million in services already provided.

As Herb Strentz pointed out in this Bleeding Heartland commentary, Congress authorized nonprofits like Lutheran Services to handle refugee work because they can do it more efficiently and at lower cost than the federal government.

Thanks so much for reading or listening! I’ll be on the road for part of this week but will be following the legislative debates closely.