Ernst gaffe may blow over. But poll-tested Republican lies will live on

What came after "We all are going to die"

Senator Joni Ernst speaks at a town hall meeting in Parkersburg on May 30. Cropped from a photo first published on her official Facebook page

This original reporting and analysis first appeared at Bleeding Heartland and is shared here as part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. For regular emails linking to all recent Bleeding Heartland articles and commentary, subscribe to the free Evening Heartland newsletter. Laura previously covered the Iowa impacts of the “big, beautiful bill” here and here.

Iowa’s 2026 U.S. Senate race had its first viral moment on May 30, when an unscripted comment from Senator Joni Ernst generated massive coverage across Iowa and national news outlets.

The words Ernst blurted out in frustration at that town hall meeting may or may not have staying power in the next Senate campaign.

But we’ll definitely keep hearing what the senator said before and after making that gaffe. Republicans around the country, including Iowa’s U.S. House members, have used the same false claims in defense of the budget reconciliation bill now pending in the Senate.

Those statements were among more than a dozen messages about Medicaid and the federal food assistance program known as SNAP that Republicans tested this spring in telephone polls. I was a respondent for one of the surveys in early May and have transcribed the questionnaire at the end of this Bleeding Heartland post.

I don’t know which GOP-aligned entity paid for the robo-poll I received, but it’s clear the memo on how to spin deep Medicaid and SNAP cuts has gone out to all Republicans in Congress.

THE UNPLANNED MESSAGE

By now you’ve all seen what happened about 45 minutes into Ernst’s early morning town hall in Parkersburg (Butler County) on May 30. After a member of the largely hostile audience shouted that “people will die” because of cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, a frustrated Ernst said, “Well, we all are going to die.” The clip exploded on social media.

Nathan Sage, the first declared Democratic candidate for Senate in Iowa, was at that event and sounded incredulous afterwards: “What the actual hell just came out of Joni Ernst’s mouth? I can’t believe what I just heard with my own ears in that room today. […] She doesn’t give a shit about Iowans.”

Other prospective Democratic challengers weighed in. State Senator Zach Wahls quipped, “Yes Joni, we are all going to die, but it shouldn’t be our SENATORS who are killing us.” State Representative J.D. Scholten posted on Instagram, “We all don’t have to die so billionaires can have a bigger tax break. That is crazy!”

Not many Republicans will copy Ernst’s off-the-cuff fatalism or the sarcastic tone she struck in an Instagram video posted on May 31. (While walking through a cemetery, Ernst said of her town hall remarks, “I made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that yes, we are all going to perish from this Earth. So I apologize. And I’m really, really glad that I did not have to bring up the subject of the tooth fairy as well. But for those that would like to see eternal and everlasting life, I encourage you to embrace my lord and savior, Jesus Christ.”)

But just about every Republican in Congress is reading from the same playbook when challenged on their support for deep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.

WHAT CAME AFTER “WELL, WE ALL ARE GOING TO DIE”

Most large social media accounts shared a clip from Ernst’s town hall that was less than ten seconds long. It’s helpful to see the context, so here’s a KCRG-TV video showing what the senator said immediately before and after:

First, note that Ernst refers to “corrections” in the reconciliation bill, rather than cuts. In the poll I received, many questions about Medicaid and SNAP were framed around the idea that lots of ineligible people currently receive benefits. Republicans want you to believe they are only trying to pull back benefits from people who don’t qualify under federal law.

Ernst claimed 1.4 million “illegals” are receiving Medicaid. That’s false. Undocumented immigrants cannot enroll in federally funded health coverage such as Medicaid, Medicare, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (known as HAWK-I in Iowa). As D’Angelo Gore explained for FactCheck.org,

CBO [The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office], which analyzed provisions in an early draft of the Energy and Commerce Committee’s portion of the House budget bill, said that, in 2034, 1.4 million people would lose “other coverage” — specifically health insurance through “state-only funded programs” under current law.

The 1.4 million “includes people without verified citizenship, nationality, or satisfactory immigration status,” the CBO said. […]

But those individuals would not come from the Medicaid program.

Iowa has no state-funded health insurance program that covers undocumented immigrants. Every Iowan dropped from the Medicaid rolls would be a U.S. citizen.

Using CBO analysis, Democratic staff on the Joint Economic Committee calculated that around 57,000 Iowans would lose Medicaid coverage under the Republican bill—from just under 13,000 in the first Congressional district to more than 15,000 people in the third and fourth districts.

Ernst repeats the 1.4 million number, then says, “They are not eligible. So they will be coming off.”

At that point, a woman shouting “people will die” threw the senator off her game, prompting the comment that drew so much attention.

When Ernst recovered, she went straight to another poll-tested lie: “We are going to focus on those that are most vulnerable. Those that meet the eligibility requirements for Medicaid, we will protect. We will protect them, OK? Medicaid is extremely important here in the state of Iowa.”

Speaking to reporters at another event on May 30, Ernst characterized the reaction to her remark as “hysteria” coming “from the left.” She added,

And we are not talking about decreasing benefits to those on Medicaid.

We know two things are true: death and taxes. And what I’m trying to do is extending tax benefits for hard-working Iowans and that we’re preserving Medicaid for those that meet eligibility requirements. We don’t need to see illegal immigrants receiving benefits that should be going to Iowans.

Not true. Research has shown that Medicaid work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks, which are part of the reconciliation bill, force many eligible people off the Medicaid rolls.

Other Iowa Republicans haven’t said we’re all going to die, but they have echoed Ernst’s other messages about the planned cuts.

HOW OTHER IOWA REPUBLICANS USE THE POLL-TESTED LIES

The reconciliation bill would reduce spending on Medicaid by around $700 billion and on SNAP by $300 billion over the next decade. But to hear Republicans tell the story, those cuts will “strengthen” safety net programs for Americans who need them.

Here are a few of the many examples I’ve seen lately.

Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) claimed in a YouTube video that in the “big, beautiful bill,” Republicans “made reforms to Medicaid which will strengthen Medicaid and preserve it for those who it was intended for. So no illegal immigrants will be receiving Medicaid. If you’re ineligible for Medicaid, you will not be on Medicaid.” She also touted the work requirements.

A few days later, Miller-Meeks’ weekly email newsletter included these points under “Key Wins in the One, Big Beautiful Bill”:

PROTECTS MEDICAID FOR THOSE WHO NEED IT MOST:

• Ends Medicaid for illegal immigrants and non-disabled adults who choose not to work.

• Cracks down on billions in waste, fraud, and abuse.

• Recommits Medicaid to children, pregnant women, seniors, veterans, and people with disabilities.

Shortly before the House voted on the bill, Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) said during a conference call with reporters, “The key I support is making sure this program exists for people who actually need it. What we’ve seen is that over a million illegal immigrants have been getting coverage on Medicaid.”

Hinson went on to say, ”The intent of Medicaid is to protect those with disabilities, seniors, mothers with single mothers with children, not 29-year-old men playing video games on their mother’s couch in the basement. We want people getting back to work. If you don’t qualify for Medicaid benefits, you shouldn’t be receiving them, and that includes illegal immigrants.”

(Peer-reviewed research has shown Medicaid work requirements in Arkansas “did not increase employment.”)

Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) uses part of his Congressional office budget to pay for social media advertising. Here’s a recent Facebook ad, which asserts Nunn is “committed to protecting Medicaid, Social Security, and strengthening SNAP so Iowa families get the care they need.”

Here’s an Instagram ad placed by Nunn’s office, using the same messaging:

To bolster the idea that Republicans are only targeting those who illegally benefit from federal programs, Nunn held a press conference on May 28 to tout legislation he plans to introduce. His bill “would increase civil penalties for people who have intentionally defrauded recipients of SNAP.” Speaking alongside an Iowan who was a scam victim, Nunn said, “If it’s happening to David, we know nationwide this is happening to the tune of thousands of people every month.”

Nunn wants you to focus on fraud that might affect thousands of people nationally. Meanwhile, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has calculated that under the reconciliation bill House Republicans just approved, around 29,000 Iowa adults might lose their SNAP benefits entirely. Around 58,000 Iowans might lose part of their food assistance. In Nunn’s district alone, some 8,000 people might lose all of their SNAP benefits, and 17,000 could lose part of their SNAP benefits.

Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-04) has highlighted the tax provisions of the reconciliation bill in his public statements. But at his annual picnic on May 30, the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel quoted him as saying of the benefit cuts,

“I’ll tell you what, we’re not going to hurt anybody,” Feenstra told reporters. “I mean, what we did with SNAP is making sure that we’re getting rid of waste and fraud. Sitting on the Ag Committee, we had a lot of discussions about this, and I want to tell you, anybody that’s on SNAP will stay on SNAP unless you’re an illegal.”

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has estimated that 6,000 of Feenstra’s constituents are at risk of losing SNAP benefits entirely, and 12,000 people living in IA-04 could lose part of their federal food assistance.

The Ernst gaffe will surely appear in many 2026 campaign ads. But Democrats shouldn’t neglect to address the premeditated, poll-tested lies that Republicans will use to defend a cruel and harmful vote.

P.S.—If a pollster calls you about to ask about any Iowa campaigns or political issues, don’t hang up the phone! Take notes or record the survey and send me the information.