Ernst out, Hinson in; more Congressional hopefuls; Democratic town halls
Sept. 8 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"
I’m grateful to George A. Clark for stepping in to co-host this week, as Spencer Dirks enjoyed some “time off for good behavior.” George has lots of experience in radio and podcasting, and it was fun to talk with him. Like just about every week in 2025, we had a ton of election-related news to cover.
The audio file from the September 8 edition of “KHOI’s Capitol Week” is at the top of this post. You can find all of our shows from the past three years here (KHOI’s website is currently under construction). You can also listen to the show through any podcast platform or smart speaker.
For those who would rather read than listen, here’s your written recap. If your email provider truncates this post, you can read it without interruption at this link.
Joni Ernst makes it official
Since Spencer and I talked about Ernst’s impending announcement during last week’s show, we didn’t spend a lot of time on the senator’s video from last Tuesday. You can watch it here. Excerpt: “Now, as our family ages and grows, it’s my time for me to give back to them. After a tremendous amount of prayer and reflection, I will not be seeking re-election in 2026.”
George and I were both skeptical that family considerations were top of mind for Ernst. She repeatedly told journalists last year she intended to seek a third term. So something changed.
In July I reviewed some of the reasons Ernst might opt out of running again.
We don’t know yet what the senator will do after she finishes her term. Many former members of Congress become lobbyists or consultants, or serve on corporate boards.
Hinson promises to be Trump’s “strongest ally” in Senate
Hours after Ernst posted her video, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) surprised absolutely no one by announcing on Simon Conway’s WHO Radio show that she will run for Senate. Side note: George worked at WHO back in the 1980s, when it was a news radio station rather than the megaphone for conservative views that it is now.
We talked about Hinson’s campaign rollout, which was very Washington-heavy. I wrote more about that over the weekend:
Hinson has praised Trump at every opportunity and echoed many of his talking points about the economy, immigration, and transgender people. She landed the president’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” on Friday, probably locking up the GOP nomination.
Did Iowa’s Senate race just become more competitive?
Iowa will have open races for governor and U.S. Senate in 2026, the first time that’s happened in our state since 1968, before I was born. What does the change at the top of the ticket mean for next year?
Normally, it’s easier to win an open seat than to defeat an incumbent. That’s certainly true for Democrats when it comes to the governor’s race, in my view. As for the Senate race, I sense the conventional wisdom among Iowa Democrats is that Hinson may be harder to beat than Ernst. She has less baggage than Ernst, and as a former television reporter and anchor, she is less likely to make a mistake like, “Well, we all are going to die.”
On the flip side, The Downballot’s David Nir argued that Ernst’s retirement “widens the path for Democrats to retake the Senate.” Responding to me, he noted that Hinson has the same voting record to defend (specifically voting for that big budget reconciliation bill) and “has to introduce herself to the rest of the state.” Also, the White House reportedly did not want Ernst to retire.
Most election forecasters still see Iowa’s Senate race as a likely Republican hold. I tend to agree, unless Democrats can start to chip away at the GOP’s huge voter registration advantage.
Other Republican candidates for Senate
Hinson has the inside track for the GOP nomination, but she won’t be unopposed. As I wrote over the weekend, former State Senator Jim Carlin—a true MAGA believer and 2020 election denier—is actively campaigning. He’s attending Republican gatherings and other events (like gun shows) several times a week. He has support from some legislators who are popular among conservatives: State Senators Sandy Salmon, Kevin Alons, and Doug Campbell, and State Representative Samantha Fett.
Carlin’s been an outspoken ally of Iowans fighting eminent domain for the CO2 pipeline, whereas Hinson has been invisible on that issue.
Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird told reporters last Thursday she’s definitely running for re-election, not for Senate in 2026.
Given the D.C. insiders coalescing around Hinson, I believe Matt Whitaker will remain in Brussels as U.S. ambassador to NATO for the time being. We’ll probably see him on the campaign trail in 2028, if Senator Chuck Grassley decides not to seek a ninth term—not a sure thing yet!
Joshua Smith, the former Libertarian who announced late last year that he would challenge Ernst for the GOP nomination, still seems to be a candidate, judging by his feed on X/Twitter. But I don’t see much activity or fundraising for his campaign, so I question whether he will manage to qualify for next year’s primary ballot.
Carlin gained a little more than a quarter of the vote against Grassley in the 2022 Senate primary, so I have confidence he’s in to stay and will be able to qualify for the ballot.
Joe Mitchell running for Congress in IA-02
By jumping to the Senate race, Hinson is leaving the northeast Iowa Congressional district open for the first time since 2014. Former State Representative Joe Mitchell announced on Monday morning that he’s seeking the nomination. I got a kick out of his written statement:
“I’m running for Congress because too many Iowans have been left behind by a broken political system that works for insiders and lobbyists, not for us,” Mitchell said. “For too long, politicians in Washington have wasted our tax dollars and cut backroom deals while working families pay the price. I’ll work with President Trump to end reckless spending, secure our borders, protect our farmers, and build an economy where hard work pays again. It’s time to take power back from the insiders and return it to the people of Iowa — where it belongs.”
Few people are better connected with insiders than this guy. He was a legislative page and clerk before being one of the youngest Iowa lawmakers ever elected in 2018. As I reported last month, former Governor Terry Branstad, former Iowa House Speaker Linda Upmeyer, and other GOP bigwigs have financially supported Mitchell’s efforts. Not only that, he founded a lobby group for Iowa real estate developers in 2023, after he lost the 2022 primary to a fellow Republican lawmaker.
Mitchell was in the news this summer because in late July, he landed a regional administrator role at the U.S. Department for Housing and Urban Development. (Before that, he was chief of staff in the at the Federal Housing Finance Agency.) He’s apparently resigned from his federal government job already; it would be a Hatch Act violation for him to seek a partisan office while holding that position.
One thing opponents will surely bring up in the primary: Joe Mitchell has never lived in the second district before. He grew up in southeast Iowa (IA-01) and represented the Mount Pleasant area in the state legislature. He then lived in Des Moines (IA-03) for several years. I confirmed that he just changed his voter registration last Thursday from a Des Moines apartment to a rental in Clear Lake.
Will IA-02 primary voters embrace a carpet-bagger? It may not matter if Trump endorses Mitchell.
Charlie McClintock running for Congress in IA-02
Last Thursday, State Senator Charlie McClintock announced his own Congressional campaign, saying, “As one of Iowa’s first endorsers of President Trump and supporters of his re-election campaign, I understand the Republican platform and the importance of an America First agenda.”
The former Cedar Rapids police officer has also served in the Iowa Army National Guard. He was first elected to the Iowa House in 2020 and to the Iowa Senate in 2022 under new maps. He was just re-elected to a four-year term last year, so he doesn’t have to give up his seat in the legislature to run for higher office.
McClintock’s voting record is unusual in that he’s occasionally a pro-labor Republican. For that reason, he has voted with Senate Democrats on a few bills and amendments. He was endorsed by at least one labor union in his legislative races, in part because his Democratic challenger was against CO2 pipelines.
A tricky thing for McClintock is he’s never had to raise a lot of money for his legislative campaigns. That’s going to be very different running for Congress.
Other possible candidates in IA-02
Two other Republicans have indicated they’re seriously considering running for Hinson’s seat in Congress.
Former U.S. Representative Rod Blum posted on Facebook last week, "Thank you to the countless supporters from across Iowa’s Second District who have reached out today to encourage me to run again for Congress. The outpouring of support has been humbling - it was the honor of my lifetime to represent our district for four years, standing squarely with President Trump and backing his America First agenda. Stay tuned!"
A businessman from Dubuque, Blum served in Congress for two terms. He benefited from a similar reshuffle to what’s happening now: Senator Tom Harkin announced plans to retire, U.S. Representative Bruce Braley ran for Senate, and Blum won the open U.S. House seat in 2014. At the time, his victory was considered a fluke. Now it looks more like an early sign of northeast Iowa moving toward Republicans. A big Trump supporter, he lost to Abby Finkenauer in the first Trump midterm election. Blum considered a comeback bid in 2020, but the GOP establishment got behind Hinson early.
State Representative Shannon Lundgren was first elected to the Iowa House in 2016, from a district covering much of Dubuque County, outside the city. She’s best known for floor managing the near-total abortion bans during the Iowa House debates in 2018 and 2023. She endorsed Trump before the 2024 caucuses.
I mentioned on last week’s show that I had heard speculation about State Senator Carrie Koelker and Cedar Rapids Mayor Tiffany O’Donnell. They have since confirmed they will not run for Congress next year. O’Donnell is seeking a second term as mayor. Koelker will be up for re-election to the Iowa Senate.
First-term State Senator Dave Sires of Cedar Falls also isn’t running for Congress.
A quick reminder: four Democrats are running for this U.S. House seat. We previously covered Kathy Dolter, Clint Twedt-Ball, Lindsay James, and Don Primus (click those links for more details).
Bob Krause jumps from IA-01 to Senate race
Ernst’s decision to retire prompted Bob Krause to switch from running for Congress to the Senate race. He served in the legislature during the 1970s and later ran unsuccessfully for state treasurer and mayor of Waterloo. Krause is a veteran and has led a veterans advocacy group. He now lives in Burlington and announced in May that he would run for Congress in the first district.
Krause has run for U.S. Senate three times before. In 2010, he finished a distant second with about 13 percent of the primary vote. He came in fourth in the 2016 primary, with just under 7 percent of the vote. He dropped out of the Senate race before the 2022 primary and endorsed Mike Franken.
Krause said last week that he would “fight to protect democracy through our Constitution, and will advocate for Constitutional and legal safeguards to prevent anything like this from happening again.” It will be challenging for him to compete in a crowded statewide field; he didn’t raise much money for his past campaigns.
Krause’s move leaves three Democrats actively campaigning in the first Congressional district: Christina Bohannan, Taylor Wettach, and Travis Terrell.
Josh Turek rolls out more endorsements
In a show of force, State Representative Josh Turek announced more than 20 endorsements for his U.S. Senate campaign from current or former state lawmakers last week. You can read the whole list here. Democrats from all over the state were represented. A couple of names that jumped out at me were Bob and Sue Dvorsky. Bob was a longtime state senator representing the Coralville area, which State Senator Zach Wahls represents now, and Sue Dvorsky is a former Iowa Democratic Party state chair. Other Iowa City area lawmakers are also on the list.
Dozens of well-known Iowa Democrats have endorsed Wahls for U.S. Senate, including some from Johnson County. But no one should assume that Wahls has all eastern Iowa Democrats in his corner.
Last month we covered the news that State Representative J.D. Scholten ended his own Senate campaign to endorse Turek. A few days ago, Politico magazine published an excellent profile of Scholten and Turek by Michael Kruse: “2 Friends, 1 Senate Race and the Democratic Quest to Win Over ‘Normal’ People.”
On Monday of this week, former Attorney General Tom Miller endorsed Turek, saying in a joint video that Turek “has a strong commitment to making sure doors are open for every Iowan” and “can win.”
I’m watching to see whether former Senator Tom Harkin gets involved in the Senate primary. He has not endorsed in any Iowa Democratic primary since retiring in 2014, but he knows Turek well. Turek has often said Harkin (the leading advocate for the Americans with Disabilities Act) is his political hero.
Christian Schlaefer running for Congress in IA-04
On Monday morning, Christian Schlaefer announced he’s seeking the Republican nomination in the fourth Congressional district. I’d never heard of him, but according to the Des Moines Register, he’s a software consultant, volunteer firefighter, and guest preacher in Kossuth County. He said immigration would be one of his top priorities. He will also talk about the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline, which would cross his property.
IA-04 covers a huge area: 36 counties across northern and western Iowa, stretching into central Iowa to include KHOI’s listening area in Story County.
It’s hard for me to see Schlaefer getting any traction, given that four other Republicans have declared in this deep-red district: Siouxland Chamber of Commerce President Chris McGowan, State Representative Matt Windschitl, Humboldt County farmer Kyle Larsen, and Iowa Tea Party founder Ryan Rhodes.
Rob Sand promises to veto future “culture war” bills
State Auditor Rob Sand’s campaign is halfway through his 100 planned town hall meetings for this year. More than 300 people attended a stop in Johnson County last Thursday, where he addressed Republican laws targeting transgender Iowans.
According to news accounts, Sand received mostly a friendly reception, but he was challenged about his comments in May, when he agreed with WHO Radio’s Simon Conway on the issue of transgender athletes playing girls’ or women’s sports. That angered many Democrats and progressives. Sand didn’t back away from that stance, saying he had listened to people on both sides of the issue.
He did criticize this year’s repeal of civil rights protections for trans Iowans as “wrong.” And he made clear that he would not sign additional attacks on LGBTQ people. The Des Moines Register quoted him as saying, “We can have somebody in the governor’s office who, the next time some stupid culture war bill comes up, they can veto it. And I would be so proud to do that.” I hadn’t heard that promise before.
Sand continues to criticize the state’s Education Savings Account program at all of his town halls. He told the crowd in Johnson County, “I am disgusted by the invitation to waste, fraud and abuse that is the school vouchers law that passed in this state,” adding that “the vast majority of this money is going to families that already can afford it anyway. And I cannot think of a more wasteful use of money than paying someone to do something that they would do anyways if you weren’t paying them.”
As we’ve mentioned before, Sand isn’t promising to repeal the voucher program. His position is that Republicans will control the legislature so repeal isn’t realistic. He would like to put income caps on the program, require private schools to be subject to public audits if they are receiving public funds, and limit tuition increases.
Sand told reporters after that town hall that the top issues voters are raising at his events are rising costs, frustration with the economy, water quality, and education. He has promised to release a “realistic” plan on water quality later during the campaign. The other Democrat running for governor, Julie Stauch, has already put out a fairly detailed list of policies she’d support to regulate agriculture and reduce water pollution.
Julie Stauch on lessons learned from “interview sessions”
I wanted to take some time to describe Stauch’s public events, which are quite different from most candidates’ town halls. I attended one of these “interview sessions” in Ames last month. She calls them that because she presents herself as applying for the job of being governor.
Stauch wrote a guest post for Bleeding Heartland last week about what she learned from her first 27 in-depth interview sessions across all of Iowa’s community college districts. Each session begins with the following questionnaire for participants to fill out.
What is your community known for?
What do you see as the biggest challenges facing your area?
What does a successful Iowa look like to you?
What worries you most about the future of Iowa?
What is standing in the way of achieving your vision for Iowa?
After giving people some time to fill out the worksheets, Stauch breaks up attendees into small groups to talk about their answers. She walks around the room to listen and take notes on those small group conversations. The groups share what they discussed. Then she gives a short speech about her background and why she’s running for governor.
The priorities she’s hearing about most often from voters are similar to what Sand mentioned. They include affordable housing, clean water, public schools, child care, health care, “respect for all neighbors,” addressing the root causes of poverty, and healthy soil and clean air. Voters have also brought up eminent domain, when she’s in the part of Iowa that would be affected by the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline.
Stauch is scheduling more meetings around the state this fall and encourages people to reach out to her campaign if they’d like her to meet with their group.
Sarah Trone Garriott holds town hall in Des Moines
On Sunday afternoon I squeezed into a room at Big Grove Brewery in Des Moines, where around 150 people had come to hear State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott. One of three Democrats running for Congress in IA-03, she was highlighting the failure of Republican incumbent Zach Nunn to hold a single public town hall during his time in Congress.
Trone Garriott kept her opening remarks fairly short, then took a bunch of questions. People asked about public education, Medicaid, and other issues. Someone asked about SNAP food assistance. The Democrat strongly opposes the cuts enacted as part of the budget reconciliation bill. She would increase SNAP benefits and raise the income cap so more people are eligible. She mentioned that whenever there is a change to federal SNAP policy the food banks see it immediately. (She works for the Des Moines Area Religious Council, which runs a large food pantry.)
One of the questioners mentioned she had repeatedly called Nunn’s office to try to get a meeting and couldn’t make it happen. Trone Garriott promised that if elected to Congress, she would regularly hold open town halls and would have scheduled drop-in hours where members of the public could come to her office to talk to a staff member about their problem.
Nunn backs out of “community forum” in Jefferson
There was some confusion late last week over whether Nunn was going to hold a “community forum” in Jefferson (Greene County). On Thursday, Raccoon River Valley Radio reported on the planned event for Friday, giving the location and time. A few hours later, they revised the story to say it was a private event.
A bunch of Greene County Democrats showed up on Friday at the appointed place and time. Nunn was nowhere to be seen. He ended up meeting with a handful of city leaders at a private business office.
Nunn has previously said he’s not going to hold “taxpayer-funded protest events.” It’s not clear why he would assume only people who don’t support his voting record would show up to hear from him.
Will any of this matter as an issue in 2026? Former U.S. Representative Cindy Axne held more public town halls than almost anyone else in Congress, but she still lost to Nunn in 2022.
I feel like it’s a bad look when officials don’t hold town halls, but I don’t know how many people care about that issue. Nunn’s campaign manager, Brendan Duffy, told Iowa Capital Dispatch that the incumbent is “consistently accessible to Iowans, holding hundreds of events in all 21 counties and hosting real listening sessions that deliver real results.” The problem is, ordinary people don’t have any opportunities to bring their concerns to Nunn. He doesn’t typically announce his schedule in advance.
State signs law enforcement agreement with Meskwaki Nation
On Thursday I attended a signing ceremony where Attorney General Brenna Bird, Iowa Department of Public Safety Commissioner Stephan Bayens, and Meskwaki Nation Tribal Chairman Vern Jefferson signed a “memorandum of understanding” about law enforcement matters.
The agreement was designed to address what officials called a “loophole”: if an officer either on the Meskwaki Settlement or in Iowa was pursuing a suspect, and the person crossed the boundary to go in or out of the settlement, it wasn’t clear that the officer had jurisdiction to continue to pursue and make an arrest. From the state’s news release:
This “fresh pursuit agreement” recognizes that Tribal officers certified by the Iowa Law Enforcement Academy may detain or arrest those suspected of breaking the law, even if pursuit continues off the Settlement; conversely, the Iowa State Patrol may do so if a pursuit continues on the Settlement. For example, a Tribal officer who observes an impaired driver may detain the driver for investigation, even if the stop occurs off the Settlement, and a trial court won’t suppress the evidence thinking the officer lacked authority to make the stop.
If you’ve traveled along Highway 30 in Tama County, the road runs in and out of the Meskwaki Settlement, which isn’t contiguous. Officers might not always know whether they are on or off the settlement.
After the signing ceremony, reporters had a chance to ask Bird some unrelated questions. I asked whether she thought President Trump is constitutionally eligible to seek a third term and whether she would support him if he runs for a third term. She dodged: "Well, it looks to me like he's getting it all done in his second term." You can watch that exchange here and the whole Q&A session here.
Thanks so much for reading or listening! Spencer and I will be back next week.
Lots of good information. I'm hoping Hinson's allegience to Dear Leader backfires. I think it could. She must have daddy issues as she is to the right of Attilla the Hun!