Fallout from a Kim Reynolds bombshell, Dems target IA-02, and more
April 14 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"
I laughed out loud when I saw Monday morning’s On Iowa Politics newsletter from the Cedar Rapids Gazette in my inbox. Des Moines Bureau Chief Erin Murphy wrote, “I was traveling Friday for a long weekend off. Did I miss anything?”
I know the feeling. During my “past life” covering Russian politics, I called in sick one day in March 1998. That morning, President Boris Yeltsin fired his entire cabinet.
Governor Kim Reynolds’ Friday morning announcement prompted Dave Price to scrap everything else he’d planned to discuss with Kathie Obradovich and me on the “Iowa Down Ballot” podcast. You can listen to our conversation about the big news here.
I had to pare down the long list of stories I’d already planned for “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” But Spencer Dirks and I still got through quite a bit in our 30 minutes together.
The sound file from our April 14 show is embedded at the top of this message. You can also subscribe to “KHOI’s Capitol Week” on any podcast platform, or find it through smart speakers. The full archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.
Along with the audio, I always provide a detailed written recap of each show, for those would rather read than listen. If your email provider truncates this message, you can read it without interruption at this link.
Kim Reynolds won’t seek a third term
The first text message I saw shortly after 11:00 am on Friday simply read, “WOAH.” When I checked my social media, it didn’t take long to find Governor Kim Reynolds’ video announcement.
I would have bet the farm on Reynolds running for re-election again in 2026. Her campaign raised a decent amount of money last year, and she told reporters in February, “I’m running on my record. I’m going to run on what we’ve done for Iowans since I’ve been elected, and I’m proud of that record.”
It sounded like a family decision. (Her husband, Kevin Reynolds, has been battling lung cancer.) The governor said in the video, “through the years, my parents and my husband Kevin, our daughters and our grandchildren, have stood by my side, supporting me through every challenge and every victory. And now it’s time for me to be there for them, to help them through the next stage of life, to watch every track meet and basketball game, to see them grow before they’re all grown.”
Reynolds told reporters at the Terrace Hill Easter Egg hunt over the weekend, “I was intending on running.” She said she reached the decision over the past couple of months. “It’s hard to walk away from something that you love, but family comes first.”
One thing I didn’t mention on the show: when I heard the news, I was getting ready to lead a workshop on editorial writing at the Iowa Safe Schools annual conference. So I was able to inform a room full of LGBTQ teenagers that Kim Reynolds was not going to seek another term. Loud cheers and applause followed.
Who else might run for governor?
Iowa has had only two open governor’s races in the past 40 years. Next year’s Republican primary could be competitive.
Former State Representative Brad Sherman, who launched his campaign in February, confirmed on Friday that he’s actively campaigning. He announced a list of endorsers on Monday, including six current state legislators, several former legislators, David Pautsch (who is running against U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks), Jim Carlin (who challenged U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley in the 2022 primary), and former Trump administration official Sam Clovis.
As I discussed in my post from Sunday, I believe the next nominee will be a higher-profile MAGA Republican with closer ties to Trump. The two names I am hearing most are Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird and former acting U.S. Attorney General Matt Whitaker. Bird is clearly considering the race. (We mentioned Whitaker on last week’s show, because he was recently confirmed as U.S. ambassador to NATO.) I think whoever believes they will have Trump’s support will run.
Although Brad Sherman is committed to the race for now, he may struggle to raise the money to compete in a statewide primary. I wonder whether he will file nominating papers next year if it looks like the establishment is lined up behind another MAGA candidate.
I have seen speculation about Republican members of Congress (especially Zach Nunn) and various state legislators running for governor. Stephen Gruber-Miller reported for the Des Moines Register on Monday that House Speaker Pat Grassley, House Ways and Means Committee chair Bobby Kaufmann, and State Senator Mike Bousselot are not ruling out the race. Kaufmann, who served as senior adviser to the Trump campaign, is the only one in that group who might land the president’s endorsement (if Bird and Whitaker both decline to run). The others would have no realistic chance against a Trump-backed candidate.
Reynolds told reporters on Saturday that she won’t endorse a candidate in the Republican primary. That makes sense, but it’s worth noting she said at one point in 2023 that she would stay neutral before the Iowa caucuses. Then she not only endorsed Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but actively campaigned for him.
No one has announced on the Democratic side, but you can bank on State Auditor Rob Sand running for governor. He’s raised more than $8 million already and will be the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone else files for the Democratic primary, though.
Impact on the governor’s race and other 2026 elections
Going into every statewide election in Iowa, Republicans are favored. But in almost all cases it is easier for the party out of power to win an open seat than to defeat an incumbent. So in my view, Sand’s chances of becoming governor someday went up substantially on Friday.
I saw some speculation that Reynolds bowed out because of bad polling numbers. The latest round of Morning Consult polling, released last week, showed Reynolds was the only governor in the country with net negative approval and had a higher disapproval rating than any of her peers.
I speculated about why her approval is relatively poor and wrote more about that here. She has a divisive leadership style and would rather get everything she wants than compromise to reach a broad consensus. Some of the policies she’s championed are unpopular, and she’s angered conservatives on a few fronts too.
Although Reynolds was facing some headwinds, I believe she would have been strongly favored to win a third term. Only three Iowa governors have failed to win their re-election bids since the 1930s. MAGA Republicans may tell a pollster they don’t approve of what Reynolds is doing, but that doesn’t mean they would have voted for Sand against the incumbent.
Worth noting: Charles Aldrich has said he plans to run for governor as a Libertarian. If he qualifies for the ballot, his presence on the ballot could become important in a close race.
Reynolds’ decision scrambles the deck on several other races. If Bird runs for governor, we could have interesting primaries in both parties for attorney general.
Assuming Sand runs for governor, Republicans will certainly target the state auditor’s race.
I would guess that Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer will try to win her old Iowa Senate seat back. Democrat Mike Zimmer won the special election to represent Senate district 35 in January. Voters will elect a senator for a full four-year term in 2026.
Democrats making a play for IA-02
Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Iowa’s second district to its 2026 target list. That’s the green area on this map, including the population centers of Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and Waterloo/Cedar Falls.
During the last cycle, national Democratic groups spent heavily Iowa’s first and third district races but didn’t make a play against U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.
I wasn’t surprised by the move. On paper, the second district has roughly the same partisan lean as IA-01. Both have a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, indicating that voters there were about 4 points to the right of the national electorate in the last two presidential elections.
The biggest difference is that Hinson outperformed Donald Trump by quite a bit in November, while Miller-Meeks was one of the country’s worst-performing House Republicans, compared to the top of the GOP ticket.
But if the economy goes into recession, areas like northeast Iowa that have swung toward Republicans during the Trump era could swing back.
There’s a long game as well as a play for 2026. A lot of Democrats thought it was a mistake to give Hinson a pass last cycle. She will have to spend more money now, and that could affect the 2028 U.S. Senate race, when (I believe) she will run for Chuck Grassley’s seat. If IA-02 is an open seat in that cycle, it will be helpful for Democrats to have laid the groundwork during the midterm election.
As for possible Democratic challengers, the name I’ve heard most often is Kevin Techau, who served as U.S. attorney in the Northern District of Iowa during the Obama administration. According to my sources, he has been making fundraising calls and lining up support. But at this writing, he has not filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission.
Fascinating election cycle ahead
To recap, we are looking at quite an eventful 2026 election cycle in Iowa, despite our red-state status:
An open race for governor
A U.S. Senate race where the incumbent Joni Ernst will likely face a GOP challenger, and there could be a competitive Democratic primary
Competitive U.S. House races in at least two if not three districts
Republican primary challengers in IA-01 and probably at least one other U.S. House race
Possible open race for attorney general
Likely open race for state auditor
The usual mix of competitive state legislative races, especially in Polk County
Angel Ramirez wins Democratic nomination in HD-78
On Saturday, Democrats in Linn County nominated Angel Ramirez for the April 29 special election in Iowa House district 78. That seat (covering much of southeast Cedar Rapids) is open because State Representative Sami Scheetz was appointed Linn County supervisor.
Ramirez won on the first ballot in a four-way competition at the special convention. She would be the first Latina to serve in the Iowa legislature, if elected. She told Iowa News Now after the convention, “it’s not the time for the status quo” and Democrats need to stand for “a progressive vision,” to help the working class, health care system, public education, LGBTQ neighbors.
More background, from the Cedar Rapids Gazette:
Ramirez is co-founder and executive director for Our Future, a nonprofit fellowship program for emerging leaders in the Cedar Rapids area, and she is board president for equity-advocacy group Advocates for Social Justice. She also serves as a peace facilitator at the Kids First Law Center to bring restorative justice practices to the Cedar Rapids Community School District.
Former State Senator Rob Hogg posted on Facebook, “Angel was my state senate clerk. She understands the practical importance of government and is a strong advocate for workers and their families, people in poverty, social justice and environment.”
While Spencer and I were recording the show, Republicans nominated Bernie Hayes for the special election.
Ramirez is very likely to win this seat. House district 78 has more than twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans, and about 65 percent of 2024 voters preferred Kamala Harris for president.
State legislative news
We were nearly halfway through the program before we got to Iowa legislative happenings. Although it was somewhat quieter after the second funnel deadline, there was debate on plenty of newsworthy bills. We had to save some of them for next week’s show. A quick rundown on what we discussed:
Education bills
House members gave final approval to a K-12 school funding package. Senate File 167 is closer to the Reynolds/Senate Republican original position, with a 2 percent increase in per pupil state funding (roughly $105 million more for school districts than the current year). House Republicans got a few policy concessions, and reportedly will still fight for extra funds for para-educators in the budget. The state will pay $7,988 per student to public school districts next year, and every private school student will be eligible for the same amount in an Education Savings Account.
I forgot to mention during the show that one Republican (Charlie McClintock) voted against the school funding bill in the Senate, and six Republicans (Mark Cisneros, Brian Lohse, Matthew Rinker, Jason Gearhart, Tom Moore, and Zach Dieken) voted no on the House floor.
The Senate approved the governor’s math education bill last week, after voting along party lines to reject State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott’s amendment to apply the requirements to private schools as well. Only one Democrat (Tony Bisignano) voted against final passage of House File 784, which requires more math testing in grades K-6 and certain kinds of curriculum materials for math.
House members gave final approval to the governor’s bill on restricting cell phone use in schools. Starting this summer, school districts must adopt policies banning the use of cell phones during instructional time. They can be more strict than that. House File 782 had bounced back to the chamber with a Senate amendment requiring the state Department of Education to distribute model policies to school districts by May 1. Heather Matson, the ranking Democrat on the House Education Committee, expressed some concern about whether the agency can meet that deadline. But like most House members, she voted for the bill. Only four Democrats voted no (Eric Gjerde, Rick Olson, Beth Wessel-Kroeschell, and Aime Wichtendahl).
Voting along party lines, the Senate approved House File 785, which would allow charter schools to have one board member living out of state. Reynolds has promoted charter schools, which are still public and tuition free, but operate under somewhat different rules.
According to the Des Moines Register, “There are seven charter schools operating in Iowa and another 10 are expected to open over the next two school years. This year, the Iowa Board of Education approved another six schools.” Democratic Senator Zimmer expressed concern that one out-of-state board member who contributed a lot of funding could exert undue influence.
When the House approved this bill in March, five Republicans (Michael Bergan, Jason Gearhart, Chad Ingels, Tom Moore, and Devon Wood) joined Democrats to vote no.
More changes to election laws
Republicans continue to change election laws every year. On Friday, Reynolds signed Senate File 75, which will require three Democratic-leaning counties (Johnson, Story, and Black Hawk) to hold county supervisor elections by district, instead of at large. The obvious goal is to help Republicans win at least one seat in each county. John Deeth (who knows more about Johnson County elections than just about anyone) has said it is unlikely a district can be drawn that a GOP candidate could win. In Story County, two of the three supervisor districts would be based in Ames, and Republicans would have a good chance of winning the seat covering rural areas.
Two other election bills are on the way to the governor’s desk. Last week, the Iowa Senate passed House File 954, which makes many changes suggested by the Secretary of State’s office. Senate Republicans voted down Trone Garriott’s amendment that would have allowed ranked choice voting for local elections.
The most controversial provisions would allow precinct election workers to challenge whether voters are citizens. It’s an obvious invitation to racial profiling, and it’s unclear how challenged voters would be able to prove their citizenship. (Most people don’t carry around a passport or birth certificate.) Many naturalized citizens would be forced to cast provisional ballots, and would have to jump through extra hoops to get those counted.
I think there could be real constitutional problems with this scheme. The floor manager, State Senator Ken Rozenboom, defended the policy, saying the Secretary of State’s office found that 35 noncitizens managed to vote in Iowa’s 2024 general election.
Although no one mentioned this angle during the House or Senate debate, I believe another provision of House File 954 raises constitutional questions. The bill would require third-party candidates to file their nominating papers by the date of the June primary election, instead of by the same date in late August when Democrats and Republicans can nominate candidates following special conventions.
As part of a 2019 election bill, Iowa Republicans moved up the filing date for third-party and independent candidates to March. That dramatically decreased the number of Libertarians who qualified for the ballot in 2020 and 2022. A federal judge ruled in 2022 that the early filing deadline was unconstitutional, because it imposed a substantial burden on Libertarians’ First Amendment and Fourteenth Amendment rights. Although this deadline is not as early, I think a legal challenge could be successful, because third-party candidates would be forced to decide whether to run before the landscape was fully developed.
One more election bill gained final approval in the Senate on Monday. House File 928 would change how recounts happen after close elections. There would be new thresholds for requesting a recount: for local or legislative races, the unofficial county must be within 1 percent or 50 votes, and for statewide or federal races, must be within 0.15 percent. Candidates would request recounts through the Secretary of State’s office and would not have to file in every county. On the flip side, the campaigns would have to request recount in whole district or state; they couldn’t pick just one or a few counties. The deadline for requesting a recount would move up to the second Wednesday after the election.
The most controversial part of this bill would change recount boards. The current system allows each candidate to choose a representative in each county. Those two people either agree on a third recount board member, or a court appoints the third recount board member. Under House File 928, county auditors would choose recount board members, which could include professional staff or precinct election workers. Must be an equal number of members from each party. Each campaign could have up to five observers in each county to raise concerns or document the process.
Democrats warned that this could cause problems, especially if Iowa had a very close race for county auditor. State Senator Cindy Winckler noted that employees from the auditor’s office could be recounting their own boss’s race. Trone Garriott, who went through recounts after the 2020 and 2024 elections, explained that when candidates can choose a representative for the recount board, they can be more confident in the outcome. She predicted the new process will make losing candidates more distrustful of the result.
Expanding coverage for firefighters’ cancer treatment
We may be nearing the end of a years-long effort to expand coverage for Iowa firefighters’ cancer treatment. Firefighters are exposed to a lot of carcinogens in the gear they wear and the chemicals they use to put out certain types of fires. Fourteen types of cancer are already covered, but for years, groups representing first responders have advocated for expanding it so any cancer diagnosis would be presumed to be related to service and covered under their pension plan.
House members have unanimously passed versions of this bill four or five times. House File 969 finally came to the Senate floor last week, after a compromise that increased the contributions of firefighters to their pension fund.
This is a good example of how one powerful legislator can block a bill that most people support. As chair of the Senate State Government Committee, Republican Jason Schultz repeatedly prevented this idea from getting through the second funnel. He was the only lawmaker to vote against it this year (both in committee and on the Senate floor). But he now runs the Judiciary Committee, so was no longer in a position to keep House File 969 from getting to the full Senate. Senator Scott Webster took the lead in getting Republicans on board.
There was a minor Senate amendment, so this one went back to the House, which unanimously approved it on April 15.
Otherwise, a bad year for cancer bills
I wanted to flag what’s happened this year with a few other bills related to Iowa’s high and rising cancer rate.
Voting along party lines last Monday, Senate Republicans approved Senate File 304, a bill requiring parental consent for minors to receive the HPV vaccine. That vaccine is critically important to prevent several types of cancer, most famously cervical cancer but also several head and neck cancers and others affecting the genital area. A companion bill is eligible for debate in the House. This proposal would prevent many vulnerable teens from getting a potentially life-saving vaccine.
Several House bills that sought to address radon mitigation in new home construction or rental properties never made it to the House floor.
A House-approved bill to restrict the use of tanning beds for people under age 18 (House File 524) didn’t get a subcommittee hearing in the Senate.
A House-approved bill requiring insurance companies to cover advanced diagnostic breast exams without co-pays (House File 318) got through a Senate subcommittee but was pulled from the Senate Commerce Committee agenda before the second funnel.
There’s a lot of work left to do on the budget, so it’s still possible the legislature will fund the governor’s budget request for $1 million to research causes of cancer. Advocates say that is a drop in the bucket compared to what Iowa needs.
New Republican property tax proposal
We didn’t have time to delve into the details, but the Republican leaders of the House and Senate Ways and Means Committees (Bobby Kaufmann and Dan Dawson) released a new version of their property tax overhaul last week. The Cedar Rapids Gazette’s Tom Barton and Iowa Capital Dispatch’s Robin Opsahl explained the key points of Senate Study Bill 1227 and House Study Bill 328, and how they differ from the bills released in March.
The big takeaway for me is that Republicans are taking some feedback from stakeholders into account. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more changes before either the House or Senate debates property taxes.
Lowering the age to carry handguns
Both chambers have now approved a measure that would lower the minimum age to possess or carry a handgun in Iowa from 21 to 18 (House File 924). People under age 21 would still be ineligible to purchase a gun.
Several state laws setting the minimum age for possessing firearms at 21 have been struck down since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Bruen decision from 2022. Early this year, the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed a lower-court ruling that found Minnesota’s law unconstitutional.
Pro-gun groups have pushed for this bill, and the House floor manager, State Representative Steven Holt, has warned critics that this policy is coming, whether you like it or not.
When the House passed this bill in March, eighteen Democrats voted no, while more than a dozen joined Republicans to vote yes. Last week’s Senate vote was more partisan, with two Republicans voting no (Charlie McClintock and Ken Rozenboom) and two Democrats voted yes (Bill Dotzler and Tony Bisignano).
In the Senate committee and floor debate, Senator Webster mentioned his daughter as an example of someone who would benefit. She’s starting a career in real estate and may want to carry a gun for protection. Some Democrats expressed concern that more people will die if younger people can legally carry guns.
I haven’t seen any statement from the governor’s office, but I’m sure Reynolds will sign this legislation. She’s signed several other bills that relax firearms legislation.
A revealing Iowa Senate debate on human remains
We only had about a minute to talk about the fascinating Iowa Senate debate on a low-profile bill about human remains (House File 363).
When I miss legislative debates live, I try to watch the whole replay instead of skipping ahead to the “important” bills. This is a good example of why: you can learn a lot about how the legislature operates in some of these debates. Democratic Senator Bisignano offered a sensible amendment that was not at all partisan, but Republicans wouldn’t take it—for no logical reason. The reality is the Senate majority simply won’t accept any Democratic amendments.
I’ve heard from many former Iowa legislators that it didn’t used to be this way. The minority party’s amendments got a fair hearing and sometimes were adopted. Occasionally members of the minority party were even allowed to floor manage a bill.
I covered this story in more detail last week. That post includes video clips and discussion of a different Senate bill, where Republicans rejected a Democratic amendment and then passed a GOP amendment that did the same thing.
Thanks so much for reading or listening. See you soon on the “Iowa Down Ballot” this weekend, and “KHOI’s Capitol Week” next Monday evening.
As always, thanks for providing such a complete synopsis of what's going on at the state level.
Nicely done; easily understandable and a pleasure to read such items of interest