Fallout from Ernst's town hall, 2026 campaign news, more new Iowa laws

June 2 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

Screenshots from recent videos by Senator Joni Ernst and State Representative J.D. Scholten

A quick heads up: Robert Leonard of Deep Midwest and I will be on the Iowa Farmers Union Lunch and Learn, a virtual event this Thursday, June 5, starting at 12:30 PM Central. You can sign up here to be part of their weekly lunch and learns. These are open to all, not just for farmers.

I was honored last week when the Interfaith Alliance of Iowa recognized Bleeding Heartland's "significant commitment to keep Iowans informed with a vital free press, an essential part of a strong democracy.” I posted a video of my remarks at the awards celebration here, as well as a transcript for those who would rather read than listen.

Speaking of which, the audio file for Monday night’s edition of “KHOI’s Capitol Week” is at the top of this post. (The full show archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.) Here’s your written recap for the June 2 show:

Joni Ernst’s town hall flub and its aftermath

It was an instant classic, but not in a good way. When challenged about Medicaid cuts that may cause people to die, Senator Joni Ernst blurted out, “Well, we all are going to die.” It made the news all over Iowa and people from across the country were sharing the clip on every social media platform.

The gaffe happened about 45 minutes into the town hall. Ernst seemed frustrated by the hostile audience, which she doesn’t encounter often.

Democratic Senate candidate Nathan Sage was at the event in Parkersburg—gotta like the hustle—and couldn’t believe what he had just heard Ernst say. We couldn’t repeat all of his comments on the radio, but in a written statement, Sage said Ernst had hit “a new low. She’s not even trying to hide her contempt for us.”

State Senator Zach Wahls, who appears likely to run for Senate, posted on X/Twitter: “Yes Joni, we are all going to die, but it shouldn’t be our SENATORS who are killing us.”

State Representative J.D. Scholten said in an Instagram video, “We all don’t have to die so billionaires can have a bigger tax break. That is crazy!”

On Monday, Scholten launched his own Senate campaign. (Most observers expected him to announce later this summer, because he is pitching for the Sioux City Explorers again this summer.) In a Facebook video, he said he wasn’t planning to do this right now, but he “just can’t sit on the sidelines” after that town hall. “Here’s my pitch: I’m a baseball playing, monopoly busting, beer drinking, Bible reading, working class proud prairie populist who is a sixth-generation Iowan from right here in Sioux City.”

I interviewed Scholten on Tuesday. Asked what he would tell Democratic voters who like all of the contenders for Senate, Scholten said he's the only person in the potential field who has already run for federal office. He considers himself a "blueberry in a bowl of tomato soup" as the only Democrat serving in the state legislature from a 42-county area in north-central and northwest Iowa. He's overperformed in every campaign, because he welcomes people into his coalition who are "not necessarily strong Democratic voters."

Back in the day, a politician would try to clean up a mess like this with a statement regretting the flippant way she phrased her answer. But instead of dialing back on the controversy, Ernst posted an Instagram video on Saturday that appeared to be filmed in a cemetery. She started out saying she wanted to “sincerely apologize” for her statement at the town hall, but quickly veered into sarcasm, and ended with an appeal to embrace Jesus Christ.

More than one of my contacts said they initially thought Ernst’s video might have been AI generated.

I feel that it represents the Trumpification of politics: don’t apologize, and be as “in your face” as possible. To me, her video suggested she’s trying to impress the president, is playing for sympathy with social conservatives, and is more worried about the GOP primary than about the November election.

Many Americans have short memories, so this incident may blow over. Or, it could become like Bruce Braley’s “farmer from Iowa” comment, which cast a long shadow over the 2014 Senate campaign.

Fact-checking Republican talking points on Medicaid

I wanted to take a minute to talk about what Ernst had planned to say about Medicaid cuts, before she made that slip at the town hall. The budget reconciliation bill now pending in the Senate will be a major issue during the 2026 campaigns.

Ernst and others in Iowa’s Congressional delegation have claimed that 1.4 million “illegal immigrants” are getting Medicaid, and only people who are not eligible for Medicaid will be removed from the program under the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill.”

They have also claimed that spending cuts to Medicaid and the food assistance program known as SNAP will “preserve” and “strengthen” the programs for the truly needy.

Wrong and wrong. I wrote about this in more depth over the weekend, with receipts. The best, concise fact check I’ve seen on the 1.4 million claim is by D’Angelo Gore at Factcheck.org.

At Bleeding Heartland I transcribed a Republican poll I received in early May, which tested eleven different messages to defend the Medicaid cuts, and six messages to defend cuts to food assistance. Ernst and U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), Zach Nunn (IA-03), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) want you to believe that only ineligible people will lose their benefits. It’s simply not true. Every nonpartisan analysis agrees on this point.

Ernst and Grassley on the Byrd rule

Both Ernst and Senator Chuck Grassley commented publicly last week about the Byrd rule, which constrains what kind of policy language can survive in budget reconciliation bills. We’re going to talk about this angle more as the “big, beautiful bill” moves through the Senate, but I wanted to give listeners a quick “parliamentary nerd note,” to quote Jamie Dupree (one of my favorite Congressional reporters).

At her town hall meeting, Ernst was challenged on a provision in the bill that would make it harder for courts to enforce their rulings. She sidestepped the question of whether she supports that policy by saying it wouldn’t get past the Senate parliamentarian, because of the Byrd rule.

Grassley’s office released a Q&A last week indicating his support for the Byrd rule, which “prevents abusive efforts to circumvent the process with non-budgetary policy matters that ought to be considered under regular order.”

It’s worth noting that the parliamentarian’s ruling is not final; a majority of the Senate can overrule it, and I think that may happen to keep some Republican policy language in the budget reconciliation bill. If you want to follow all of the twists and turns in the Senate, I recommend subscribing to Jamie Dupree’s Regular order newsletter.

Ashley Hinson holds tense town halls

Hinson is the only member of Iowa’s U.S. House delegation who is holding in-person town hall meetings this year. Last week she encountered hostile audiences in Decorah and Elkader. You can read more about the Hinson town halls here, here, and here.

I do give Hinson credit for facing her critics; if only she didn’t tell so many lies when defending the Trump administration, DOGE, and the Republican legislative agenda.

As I wrote last month, Hinson is making sure there is no daylight between her and Trump. That may not be the best election strategy for 2026, but it’s probably essential for her ambitions to run for U.S. Senate in 2028.

News on Iowa’s Congressional campaigns

Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio was in Iowa last week, appearing at campaign events for Nunn, Miller-Meeks, and Feenstra.

The Miller-Meeks fundraiser was closed to the press, but she did speak briefly to reporters and said she hadn’t yet decided whether to run for re-election.

I found that so bizarre. Everything she’s been doing this year points to another campaign, so I don’t know why she would say she is unsure about her plans.

Speaking of the IA-01 campaign, Ed Tibbetts reported last week on his Substack newsletter that he’s already received two mailings criticizing Miller-Meeks for her vote on that “big, beautiful bill.” They focused on a fairly obscure provision known as the State And Local Tax deduction, or SALT.

New mailings zero in on Miller-Meeks for tax break that benefits 'rich coastal elites'

It’s very important to a small group of House Republicans who represent high-cost, high-tax areas like New York, New Jersey, and California. To get their support for the reconciliation bill, they agreed to raise the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000.

The mailings have photos of huge mansions and say: “Rich coastal elites don’t need another handout,” and “Why should the rest of us foot the bill so they can get a huge tax break?”

Some Republican senators don’t like this SALT provision–Ernst has criticized it in the past. But if the Senate takes it out, House leaders may have trouble getting the reconciliation bill to Trump’s desk.

Bob Krause running for Congress in IA-01

Democrat Bob Krause announced last week that he plans to run for Congress in the first district. He served in the Iowa House for six years during the 1970s, but he’s better known for his unsuccessful campaigns for U.S. Senate. He finished a distance second behind Roxanne Conlin in the 2010 Democratic primary, and was last in the field in 2016.

In 2022, Krause said he would run for Senate again, but he ended up endorsing Mike Franken and not failing for the Democratic primary. Most recently he ran for Des Moines County sheriff in 2024 (he lives in Burlington now).

Democrat Travis Terrell was the first to announce a campaign in IA-01 in April. I interviewed him at that time but I forgot to share the video with my subscribers.

Most people expect Christina Bohannan (the Democratic nominee in 2022 and 2024) to run for Congress a third time.

Miller-Meeks will need to get through the GOP primary first. She faces David Pautsch, who will be running against her from the right. I thought the Jim Jordan event for Miller-Meeks sent a message to MAGA Republicans that they should stick with the incumbent.

Eddie Andrews takes step toward running for governor

Republican State Representative Eddie Andrews filed paperwork late last week to form a campaign committee to run for governor. He’s set to announce his candidacy on Wednesday, June 4.

A little background on Andrews: he was first elected to the Iowa House in 2020 from a district based in the suburb of Johnston, to the northwest of Des Moines. He was the only Republican to win an Iowa legislative race in 2024 in a district that voted for Kamala Harris, and the only Republican to win a 2020 legislative race in a district that voted for Joe Biden.

Andrews is only the second Black Republican ever to serve in the Iowa legislature (the first served a term during the 1960s).

He’s known as a social conservative and was a Vivek Ramaswamy endorser before the 2024 Iowa caucuses.

I suspect Andrews will have a lot of trouble raising funds to run a credible statewide campaign. Feenstra announced last week that his exploratory campaign for governor has raised $3.2 million. (We don’t know how much of that was in transfers from other committees.)

State Senator Mike Bousselot sent out an email blast on Monday to remind people he is still exploring the governor’s race.

Matt Robinson running in battleground Iowa House district

Over Memorial Day weekend, Democrat Matt Robinson kicked off his campaign in House district 72, covering part of Dubuque and some precincts outside the city. He’s a union carpenter with Local 678 in Dubuque.

This area used to be solid blue, but times have changed. Republican Jennifer Smith beat long-serving State Representative Chuck Isenhart here in 2024.

This will definitely be a race to watch. The new Iowa House minority leader Brian Meyer grew up in Dubuque, and I’m sure he will prioritize getting this seat back.

Democratic senator announces Parkinson’s diagnosis

State Senator Art Staed, who has represented parts of the Cedar Rapids metro in the legislature for more than fifteen years, announced on Facebook last week that he had “joined the club” of people diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. He’s going to keep serving in the legislature; he said he passed a cognitive evaluation “with flying colors.” Although Staed’s movement has been affected, he’s getting physical therapy and plans to knock doors this summer. He said his legislative work is not affected.

Staed and his wife, Susan Staed, talked to the Cedar Rapids Gazette about the diagnosis and why they didn’t go public until after the legislature had adjourned for the year.

Governor signs more bills into law

Governor Kim Reynolds has been signing dozens of laws every week. We briefly discussed six of them on the show.

House File 954 makes a number of changes to election law. The most controversial provision will allow election officials to challenge the citizenship of voters at polling places. Democrats have warned that could open the door to racial profiling. Another part of the bill moves up the deadline for third-party candidates to file nominating papers. I think that could be unconstitutional, for the same reasons a federal court struck down a 2019 law that set an early deadline for third-party candidates.

House File 928 changes recount procedures in several ways. It gives more of a role to county auditors and their professional staff. Candidates have to request a recount in a whole district; they can’t pick and choose counties. Recount boards could be larger in larger counties. Democrats opposed this bill, largely because it doesn’t allow campaigns to choose recount board members.

The same bill eliminates hand recounts for statewide and federal elections. Some election security experts wrote to Reynolds expressing concern about that aspect of the bill. If machines have malware or malfunction for some other reason, a recount might not catch it.

Last week, Reynolds signed her math education proposal, House File 784. Among other things, this law would require public schools to use certain kinds of math curriculum and test lower-performing students in math more frequently. It had a lot of bipartisan support, but some Democrats voted against it out of concerns that it will be another unfunded mandate for cash-strapped schools. Some also have worried the extra testing could be counterproductive.

House File 889 is the governor’s paid leave proposal for state employees. I was surprised to see this bill land on the Senate floor on the last day of the legislative session. It’s a good first step: state employees would get four weeks of paid leave after giving birth or adopting, and one week of leave after a partner gives birth. Many private sector companies are more generous.

House File 856 prohibits many public entities—state universities, community colleges, city and county governments, and school districts—from engaging in any diversity, equity, or inclusion activities. Democrats raised a lot of concern about the impact on local governments. Will they not be allowed to celebrate Black History Month? Or make a special effort to hire Spanish-speaking police officers in areas with large Latino populations? It’s not clear how the law will affect school districts that have already received grants with a DEI angle.

The original House Republican bill would have prohibited private colleges from participating in the Iowa tuition grant if they had DEI staff or programming. But Iowa Senate Republicans took that language out of the bill. They didn’t want to set that precedent of dictating policy to private colleges.

House File 972 combines various policies that are supposed to address the health care workforce shortage, especially in rural Iowa. I’m skeptical that this will be effective, for several reasons. Dave Price, Kathie Obradovich, and I spent a little more time on this bill on the latest “Iowa Down Ballot” podcast.

News from the courts

We finished up with a couple of politically relevant court happenings. On the Friday before Memorial Day weekend, U.S. District Court Judge Rebecca Goodgame Ebinger in the Southern District of Iowa removed Mariannette Miller-Meeks and former State Senator Brad Zaun from Donald Trump’s lawsuit against the Des Moines Register and its longtime pollster, Ann Selzer. William Morris reported for the Register,

"Plaintiffs provide no legitimate rationale for Zaun and Miller-Meeks to join a federal lawsuit only to immediately moveto remand," Ebinger wrote. "Zaun and Miller-Meeks could have sued defendants in state court without fear of removal. Thus, the only apparent reason to have joined Trump’s lawsuit is to destroy diversity jurisdiction."

Trump’s attorneys are trying to get the case back in state court. The defendants have filed motions to dismiss the lawsuit, on First Amendment grounds and because Iowa’s consumer fraud statute was never intended to be used this way. I have yet to talk to an attorney who thinks Trump’s lawsuit has any merit.

In the Northern District of Iowa, U.S. District Court Judge C.J. Williams dismissed a landowner’s challenge to federal wetlands protections known as “Swampbuster.” The Pacific Legal Foundation, a conservative advocacy group, is representing a landowner who claims it is unconstitutional for the federal government to make certain subsidies contingent on preserving some wetlands. The judge ruled that the plaintiff hadn’t gone through the process of asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture to rule on the farmland at issue here. But he also found that it is not an illegal “taking” of property for the government to require certain conservation practices as a condition of subsidies.

You can read more about the Swampbuster ruling in the Cedar Rapids Gazette and the Des Moines Register.

Judge Williams’ decision was a big win for environmental groups, but the plaintiff plans to appeal. The U.S. Supreme Court has invalidated a bunch of environmental regulations in recent years, so I expect this case or a similar challenge to reach the highest court eventually.

Thanks so much for reading or listening! Spencer Dirks and I will be back next Monday.