First thoughts on Zach Wahls' chances against Joni Ernst

and the senator's strengths and weaknesses

State Senator Zach Wahls (photo posted on his X/Twitter feed on January 14, 2025)

This original reporting and analysis first appeared at Bleeding Heartland and is shared here as part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative. For regular emails linking to all recent Bleeding Heartland articles and commentary, subscribe to the free Evening Heartland newsletter.

Dave Price had the scoop for Gray Media on March 28: State Senator Zach Wahls is “certainly listening” to those who have encouraged him to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Wahls is the first Democrat to publicly express interest in this race. Two-term Senator Joni Ernst has not formally launched her re-election campaign but is widely expected to seek a third term.

Wahls told Price he will decide whether to run for higher office after the Iowa legislative session. But he’s already criticizing Ernst, most recently in a March 26 news release that tied the senator to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “reckless mishandling of military plans” in a Signal group chat.

“THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WASHINGTON DOES TO POLITICIANS LIKE SENATOR ERNST”

Wahls called on Hegseth to resign following Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg’s jaw-dropping report on how top Trump administration officials discussed an upcoming military operation in Yemen on the social media platform Signal. The president’s national security adviser Michael Waltz accidentally added Goldberg to the group chat.

Hegseth and others have denied revealing any classified information on Signal. However, screenshots published by The Atlantic showed the defense secretary texted details about when drones and F-18 aircraft were scheduled to launch, and even “WHEN THE FIRST BOMBS WILL DEFINITELY DROP.” Numerous national security experts have confirmed that kind of operational detail would typically be classified, and officials would use secure communication channels (not open source software on cell phones) to discuss attack plans.

Although Ernst is a combat veteran and member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, her office has not issued any statement about the scandal. Nor has the senator acknowledged “Signalgate” on her social media feeds or in her weekly newsletter.

When a CNN reporter asked her about the revelations on March 27—three days after The Atlantic broke the story—Ernst said she still had confidence in Hegseth. She noted, “I think they’ve learned a valuable lesson with this,” adding that there will be an independent report provided to the Senate Armed Services Committee chair and ranking member as well as a National Security Council review.

In a March 26 statement, Wahls said Hegseth is “dangerously unqualified and must resign immediately. His recklessness and disregard for federal law threatens national security and endangers our military personnel.” He linked the defense secretary’s incompetence to Ernst, who supported Hegseth’s confirmation after an intense pressure campaign from conservatives.

Senator Ernst herself expressed serious doubts about Hegseth’s qualifications before yielding to political pressure. This is exactly what Washington does to politicians like Senator Ernst who care more about their status than serving their country.”

Senator Ernst cast the deciding vote for Hegseth despite widespread warnings and her own misgivings about his unfitness for this critical position. Her decision has had immediate negative consequences for America’s security. If Secretary Hegseth refuses to do the honorable thing and resign, Senator Ernst should acknowledge her mistake and join my call for his resignation.

It’s clear Hegseth won’t resign, and equally obvious that Ernst won’t publicly criticize any Trump appointee. She worked hard last year to improve her relationship with the president, which had deteriorated since he was previously in office. She won’t want to create any more problems on her right flank.

“NEW PERSPECTIVES ARE IMPORTANT IN GOVERNMENT”

Challengers need a positive message as well as a case against the incumbent. If Wahls decides to run for Senate, political reform will likely be a centerpiece of his campaign.

Wahls was first elected to the Iowa legislature in 2018, but he reached a national audience for the first time as a college student in 2011. Here he is at age 19, talking about being raised by two moms at a public hearing on a Republican proposal to ban same-sex marriage in Iowa.

That video landed the articulate young man invitations to appear on national television. It also generated one of the best “how we met” stories of all time for Wahls and future wife Chloe Angyal.

Wahls remains a passionate advocate for civil rights and has repeatedly spoken against Republican bills that discriminate against LGBTQ Iowans, from his first year in the legislature to last month’s debate on a wide-ranging anti-trans bill.

He has also been outspoken about the need for young people to be better represented in the halls of power. When not working in the legislature, Wahls serves as executive director of The Next 50, a group that helps elect younger Democratic candidates.

Earlier this month, he and Democratic State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott introduced a pair of political reform proposals. One would introduce term limits for the Iowa legislature (a maximum of twelve years in the state House or Senate). As Wahls wrote in a recent list-building email,

When I was first elected in 2018, I was the youngest member of the Iowa Senate. Seven years later, I’m still the youngest member of the Iowa Senate. And seven years later, I am more convinced than ever about the importance — and the power — of new voices.

New perspectives are important in government for a simple reason: as the world changes, our governments and laws must change with it. […]

Too many Iowa politicians — and this is true about politicians from both parties — have been in office for so long they’ve lost touch with the real challenges facing our state. Instead of solving problems, they protect the status quo. Instead of putting Iowans first, they focus on staying in power. This needs to change.

I have long opposed term limits, as do the vast majority of political scientists who have studied the issue. But there’s no denying that most voters like the idea. And this could become a potent line of attack against Ernst, because she unequivocally promised in 2014 to serve only two terms if elected to the Senate. Here’s a video clip from a Republican primary debate on “Iowa Press.”

The other bill Wahls and Trone Garriott introduced in early March would “prohibit sitting legislators from buying or selling individual stocks during their term.” Wahls said in a news release, “For far too long, power has rested in the hands of a few who are more focused on personal gain than on delivering for everyday Iowans.”

I support this common-sense reform for Congress as well as for state legislatures. For what it’s worth, I’ve seen no evidence that Ernst has used her position to enrich herself through individual stock trades. Her personal financial disclosure forms (available here) suggest that the senator’s stock holdings consist of index funds or mutual funds. There is no record of the “periodic transaction reports” members of Congress must file after buying or selling individual stocks. At the same time, Ernst has not championed a ban on such deals for her colleagues.

ERNST’S POTENTIAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

If she seeks a third term, Ernst would start the 2026 campaign as a heavy favorite against any Democratic candidate. Iowans famously like to keep electing incumbents; our last U.S. senator to lose a re-election bid was Roger Jepsen, whom Democrat Tom Harkin defeated in 1984.

In addition, now that Iowa has left swing-state status behind, the GOP nominee starts with an advantage in every statewide election. According to the latest official figures, Iowa currently has about 176,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. Adding to the problem for Ernst’s opponent, Iowa Republicans typically turn out for general elections at a higher rate than Democrats, especially in midterm years.

Iowa probably won’t be high on the 2026 target list for national groups that spend heavily on U.S. Senate races. The last time Ernst was up for re-election, Democratic nominee Theresa Greenfield raised and spent more than $55 million on the race, and outside groups spent more than $81 million on negative messages about Ernst. Yet the Republican was re-elected by a roughly 6.5 point margin. Ernst did underperform Donald Trump (the top of the 2020 ticket), but only by a little.

That said, it’s important for Democrats to have credible candidates in place, even for races that appear to be long-shots. The national political environment could turn sharply against Republicans next year if the country heads into recession and Trump’s tariffs lead to higher prices for food and consumer goods.

Ernst has been among the most vocal advocates for Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” efforts. If the Social Security system starts to break down, or the federal government reduces VA services or food assistance, or Iowa hospitals and nursing homes close due to Medicaid cuts, it will be easy to draw a straight line connecting the cuts to Ernst’s enabling behavior.

I kid you not: she stood on the Senate floor in early January next to a cringe-worthy poster with the DOGE meme, proclaiming with a smile that DOGE “will sweep over this city and forever alter the way it operates.”

Unexpected events can create negative publicity for incumbents as well. (Who would have guessed “macaca” would be the beginning of the end for Senator George Allen in 2006?) ProPublica’s Robert Faturechi reported in early March, “Ethics and military experts say [Ernst’s] relationships with top Air Force and Navy officials created potential conflicts of interest.” That story received little attention in Iowa. But a rival candidate or outside group could put those allegations in front of many voters.

Also worth noting: Ernst will likely face at least one Republican challenger for the 2026 nomination. Joshua Smith launched his campaign and a hard-hitting digital ad (“You suck, Joni!”) in December. Former State Senator Jim Carlin filed paperwork for a U.S. Senate campaign with the Federal Election Commission in February. Carlin did not respond to my inquiry about his possible candidacy. He ran against Senator Chuck Grassley in 2022 and received about 26.5 percent of the vote in the GOP primary.

Ernst’s campaign may have to spend a million dollars or more to secure a convincing win in next year’s primary. Assuming she becomes the 2026 nominee, disaffected MAGA Republicans may look for another place to land in the November election. They probably wouldn’t consider voting for a Democrat—but Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn told Bleeding Heartland last summer and again in December that he is seriously considering running for Senate as a Libertarian in the next election cycle.

If the wheels start to come off for Ernst, Wahls would be well placed to capitalize on the momentum. He has a larger social media following than most Iowa politicians. He has raised far more money than most Iowa legislators, especially during the two and a half years he served as Senate minority leader. (Democrats chose Pam Jochum to replace him in June 2023.) Wahls can also tap into national fundraising networks, in part because of his work with The Next 50, and also due to his past advocacy as a co-founder of Scouts for Equality.

Final note: Wahls’ term in the legislature runs through 2026. So he would have to give up his current position to run against Ernst next year. That would make Senate district 43 (covering Coralville, North Liberty, a small part of Iowa City, and other areas in Johnson County) an open seat. It should be an easy hold for Democrats; the district’s residents preferred Kamala Harris over Trump in the 2024 general election by about 68 percent to 30 percent.