GOP candidate pitches, Derek Wulf finances, 2Q fundraising

July 20 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigns with U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Pella on July 16 (cropped from photo published on Johnson’s social media)

I see Substack has rolled out an “AI Detection Tool.” You don’t need to worry about slop in this space: I write 100 percent of every post I publish.

On Tuesday I spent about six hours at the Polk County courthouse tracking the ballot access case connected to the Libertarian candidates for governor and lieutenant governor. I’ll be back on Wednesday for hearings in cases for two Libertarians running for Congress: Marco Battaglia is trying to get back on the ballot in IA-03, while Republicans are trying to knock Rick Stewart off the ballot in IA-02. I’ll have plenty to say about both those cases on next Monday’s radio show.

But now I need to bring you up to speed on the July 20 edition of “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” As always, the audio file is at the top of this post.

Every week I write a detailed recap for those who would rather read than listen. So if you know someone who avoids podcasts for lack of time, or because they are hard of hearing, please let them know that they can read my reporting. If your email provider truncates this message, you can read it without interruption here.

What Spencer Dirks and I covered this week:

Highlights from the Family Leadership Summit

We started with a big event for Republican candidates: the annual Family Leadership Summit, held last Friday. The FAMiLY Leader posted the whole day’s video on YouTube. I confess that I didn’t watch it all, but I did take in the politicians’ remarks.

Candidates typically talk a lot about their Christian faith at FAMiLY Leader events. This year, another recurring theme was that Democrats will bring socialism or communism to the country. I would chalk this up to Republicans taking their cue from President Donald Trump.

U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate, began speaking around the 6:21:30 mark of this video. She warned about what she called “the left’s march toward socialism” and efforts “to erase Christian values from our work in Washington, DC.” She talked about “proudly” displaying her faith by keeping her Bible in her Congressional office. She railed against supposedly “radical ideas” the left is imposing on kids.

The “democratic socialist” wing has had a lot of success lately in Democratic primaries in other states. That hasn’t been true in Iowa—though you wouldn’t guess that from listening to Hinson. She said the growing influence of democratic socialists should alarm everyone, and she claimed State Representative Josh Turek “would embrace these socialists” if elected to the Senate.

How does she know that? Because Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spent $10 million backing Turek in the Democratic primary. (That spending came from the VoteVets super-PAC, widely seen as aligned with Schumer.)

I had to laugh, because if you know anything about the American left, you would know democratic socialists can’t stand Schumer. Dumping him as Senate leader is a high priority for that group. I can also assure you that many DSA types in Iowa are not fans of Turek.

The crowd at the Family Leadership Summit is going to vote for Hinson anyway, so you may wonder why her pandering to this crowd matters. She needs high turnout among social conservatives to win in November. As we’ve previously reported, former State Senator Jim Carlin (her GOP primary opponent) has declined to endorse her for the general election.

Lahn ties Christianity to American culture

The FAMiLY Leader endorsed Adam Steen in the GOP primary for governor. So nominee Zach Lahn may feel he has work to do with this constituency. His speech on Friday (beginning at 6:44:50 on this video) was heavy with religious references.

Lahn said he ran for office not because of legislation he wanted to pass or some regulation he didn’t like, but because of “the culture, the heritage, the history, and the stories of our country, our state, and our people.” He frequently talks about culture and history in his public appearances, but this speech more directly tied American culture to his own religion.

As he put it in one clip shared on Lahn’s social media: “Christianity, which has built western culture, has provided for the greatest alleviation of oppression ever known to mankind, and it’s not even close.”

Like Hinson, Lahn needs strong turnout (not just grudging support) from social conservatives who may have preferred other candidates for governor. From what I could tell, watching the video, his speech was well-received.

Mike Johnson rails against godless communists

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson warned about Democratic socialists and communists running for Congress, saying the U.S. was founded as a Christian nation, whereas Marxism, Communism, and socialism begin with the premise that “there is no God.” You can watch his speech starting at 7:39:50 on this video; the Des Moines Register published a good summary here.

While Republicans and Democrats used to argue about tax rates or regulation, Johnson said, “That’s not the contest right now. […] Right now, we’re in a battle, an all-out battle, to determine if we are going to remain one nation under God — if we’re going to remain and keep a constitutional republic, or trade it in, dismantle the foundations, and go down this dark, dangerous, deadly road of communism.”

When Dave Price, Kathie Obradovich, and I talked about Johnson’s remarks on the “Iowa Down Ballot” podcast, I explained how ludicrous it is to call DSA candidates “communist.” No one is talking about the government seizing the means of production or confiscating private property. Under communism, agriculture is collectivized and you don’t own your own house.

Johnson suggested that “mini-Mamdanis” are everywhere. There may be 28 democratic socialist candidates for Congress, as he claimed, but they are not talking about abolishing the Senate or whatever nonsense Johnson is pushing.

Johnson bashes Trone Garriott, ordained pastor

None of the four Democratic candidates for U.S. House in Iowa are from the democratic socialist wing of the party. Two of them are ordained Christian ministers. But that didn’t stop Johnson from suggesting that Iowa is “on the front lines” of this battle.

He criticized State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran pastor who is running for Congress in Iowa’s third district, saying she had “performed a satanist wedding.” This claim goes back to a story Trone Garriott told years ago as part of the Des Moines Register’s Storyteller Project.

She was an intern working with a more experienced Lutheran pastor, and explained that she didn’t agree with her supervisor’s decision to officiate that wedding. However, she learned a lesson that day: “life and people and love are not perfect. And when that is painfully obvious — the imperfections, the disappointments, the brokenness — That is when love matters the most.”

Representative Zach Nunn has already raised this issue against his Democratic challenger, and I’m sure we will see versions of the talking point in TV and radio ads soon.

Johnson campaigns with Miller-Meeks in Pella

Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the embattled GOP incumbent in Iowa’s first district, didn’t go to the Family Leadership summit. (She’s never been a favorite of the Christian conservative wing of the party.) But Mike Johnson campaigned with her in Pella, where he said “maintaining the House Republican majority runs through Iowa.” He’s not wrong: because we don’t gerrymander, Iowa always has at least a couple of competitive U.S. House races. This year, three out of four seats are in play.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC linked to House Republican leadership, will spend millions of dollars backing GOP candidates in Iowa.

During the event with Johnson, Miller-Meeks highlighted her support for law enforcement, including through what Republicans now call the “Working Families Tax Cuts” (formerly known as the “One Big, Beautiful Bill”).

As a member of the Iowa House, Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan voted against a 2021 bill that Republicans called the “Back the Blue” Act. Miller-Meeks portrays that as “crazy” and anti-police. The Daily Iowan covered the context five years ago:

In an Iowa House Debate on Senate File 342 — which ultimately passed into law, increasing penalties for protestors — Bohannan said she would be a no vote because the bill would undermine public trust for law enforcement when it needed to be rebuilt, subject young people and other protesters to harm, and prevent local enforcement from exercising discretion in how to respond.

“I do support law enforcement and I will be a no on this bill, because I also support other things, including the right to protest for racial justice and for other issues,” Bohannan said in debate. “And I really think this bill unnecessarily pits law enforcement against groups like Black Lives Matter and other protesters just at a time when we need to be bringing all of these groups together.”

In her statement she said she supported some elements of the bill that provided benefits and sick leave to law enforcement, but that those measures were combined with other sections she said were problematic.

Joe Mitchell, Chris McGowan court Christian conservatives

Two GOP candidates for U.S. House did speak at the Family Leadership Summit. You can watch Joe Mitchell (nominee in IA-02) and Chris McGowan (IA-04) starting around the 6:08:20 mark of the video.

Mitchell talked about his friendship with the late Charlie Kirk, a favorite of this crowd because he was such an aggressive advocate for Christianity as well as conservatism. He described his Democratic opponent as “radical left Lindsay James” and characterized her as a “Marxist” and a “pastor in name only” (PINO).

Speaking about Ashley Hinson, who vacated this House seat to run for Senate, Mitchell said she did a great job, but the only “disservice” she did was making people think IA-02 is not a competitive district. It clearly is in play, as we’ve reported before.

Chris McGowan talked about the importance of sending “faith-filled people” to Washington. He said he’d been blessed with six children, five of whom went to the Naval Academy.

McGowan’s not running a very visible campaign, so we haven’t talked about him much lately. That could be a problem for Republicans, because while IA-04 is not really in play, the GOP does need candidates to rally the troops in northwest Iowa. In the 2018 campaign, then Representative Steve King’s competitive race against J.D. Scholten led to very high conservative turnout and may have helped Kim Reynolds win the governor’s race.

Following up on Derek Wulf’s legal entanglements

Since our June 15 show, I’ve been covering litigation involving State Representative Derek Wulf, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor. (For those who have asked: I don’t know why other Iowa media don’t seem interested in this story.)

On Monday morning I published a deep dive about Wulf’s remarkable reversal of fortune since becoming Lahn’s running mate. Someone or some entity put up the funds to help him repay at least one six-figure debt, and maybe more.

Every expert I’ve talked to has agreed that a farmer in Wulf’s situation would not normally be able to refinance with this level of debt. He doesn’t own much (if any) collateral. There are many unanswered questions about who stepped in to help him secure new financing and possibly save his home and farm.

I tried to summarize the main points during on the air, but this is a story made for reading, not for radio.

I’m keeping an eye on all of the active dockets related to Wulf. We may know more after a court hearing related to the WCF Financial Bank’s foreclosure action, scheduled for August 4.

My main focus is trying to find out who is putting up the money or guaranteeing the loans to help Wulf out of a jam. The Lahn campaign stopped responding to my inquiries. Last month, they told me Lahn was “aware that Derek, like many Iowa farmers, has faced financial challenges during a difficult agricultural economy. He knows Derek is an honest man who is fighting to preserve his family farm and support his family. This situation highlights exactly what this campaign is focused on: ensuring family farms can remain in family hands instead of being forced into the control of large banks and corporations.”

Another record-breaking haul for Rob Sand

Monday was the deadline for state candidates to report their fundraising and spending, and Democratic nominee for governor Rob Sand announced another record-breaking haul: more than $9 million raised from May 27 to July 14.

Sand’s latest campaign finance disclosure, running more than 1,700 pages, shows no donations from his spouse or in-laws. But the Democratic Governors Association gave $2.5 million. He had some other six-figure donors, and Kyle Krause and Sharon Krause each gave $500,000. Quite a few people gave four-figure or five-figure amounts, but the vast majority of Sand’s donations were small.

Sand’s campaign spent more than $9.4 million between May 27 and July 14. Advertising was the largest expense by far: more than $4 million on TV ads and around $3.5 million on digital ads.

Since they still have about $17.9 million cash on hand, they can afford to buy advertising at that level all the way through to November.

Most of Lahn’s fundraising came from national GOP group

Lahn’s campaign also raised a lot of money, reporting about $6.37 million raised during the latest period. I misspoke during the show, saying the Republican Governors Association had donated $4.5 million to Lahn’s campaign. The correct amount is $5 million since late May.

In other words, Lahn is much more dependent on funding from national groups than Sand.

The GOP nominee’s campaign reported just under $6 million in spending since May 27. More than $5 million of that amount went toward advertising. (The breakdown between digital and TV ads was less clear on his report.)

The difference is that Lahn doesn’t have the cash on hand to keep that up. As of July 14, his campaign only had a little more than $1 million in the bank. Maybe the Republican Governors Association will keep pouring money in, but there’s a long way to go until November.

Lahn put $2.5 million of his own money into the campaign before the primary. He and his staff have since said he doesn’t plan to self-fund during the general election campaign. I wonder whether he will stick to that plan, though.

Fundraising for other statewide candidates

We spent a few minutes going through the fundraising reports for other candidates for statewide offices.

The two candidates for attorney general reported similar numbers: both Republican incumbent Brenna Bird and Democratic challenger Nate Willems raised about $1.9 million, and both received $1.5 million from their respective party’s fundraising committee for attorney general races. Bird had more large donations helping to round things out, while Willems had more small donors.

The main difference is cash on hand. Thanks largely to past support from the Republican Attorneys General Association, Bird’s campaign had about $6.8 million in the bank as of July 14, while Willems’ campaign had around $2.67 million. That’s still a large amount for a challenger at this stage. I expect a highly competitive race.

In the secretary of agriculture race, Mike Naig raised around $179,000 during the latest reporting period, spent less than $20,000 and has a massive amount in the bank, around $672,000.

Democratic challenger Chris Jones raised more than $110,000—which is a lot for a non-incumbent for this office. His spent most of what his campaign brought in (around $75,000), and had around $99,000 in the bank as of July 14. He has far more individual donors than Naig.

Republican incumbent Roby Smith has a big money lead in the state treasurer’s race. His campaign reported raising around $149,000 and spent only around $1,000 between May 27 and July 14. He has around $358,000 in the bank.

Democrat John Norwood raised around $56,000 for his campaign but spent more than $42,000, leaving around $58,000 cash on hand.

I forgot to mention the secretary of state candidates during the show. GOP incumbent Paul Pate typically self-funds a lot of his campaigns, and that trend seems to be holding. His latest report shows only $2,110 raised and $119.48 in spending, with about $90,000 cash on hand and $293,500 in outstanding loans from himself.

Democratic nominee Ryan Peterman raised far more (just under $52,000) and spent more (just under $30,000), leaving his campaign with about $166,000 in the bank as of July 14.

Aside from Sand, the only Democratic statewide candidate who out-raised the competition was Taylor Wettach, running for state auditor. I was surprised that his campaign reported raising about $272,000 between May 27 and July 14. Even after spending just under $100,000 during the latest period, Wettach reported more than $763,000 cash on hand. That is a huge amount for a non-incumbent.

Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer, the GOP nominee for state auditor, only reported raising around $145,000 on her latest filing. More than a third of the money ($50,000) came from the candidate’s parents. She had about $133,000 cash on hand with less than four months to go.

Turek out-raises Hinson for first time

July 15 was the deadline for U.S. House and Senate candidates to report their latest fundraising numbers to the Federal Election Commission. For the first time, Democratic Senate nominee Josh Turek raised more than Republican Ashley Hinson. He raised about $2.8 million from mid-May through June, which was by far his best fundraising period. Individual donations accounted for the lion’s share of that money, with less than $300,000 going to Turek from political party committees or PACs.

Hinson’s campaign reported raising about $2 million during the same period. Only about $744,000 of her total came from individual donors, but she continues to rake in big money from PACs and transfers from other Republican committees.

Turek and Hinson both reported more than $1 million in spending on their latest report. She is still way ahead in terms of cash on hand: about $6.75 million compared to $2.3 million for Turek.

The Democrat may be able to narrow that gap if he continues to do well with individual donors.

I used to write more in-depth stories about FEC reports at Bleeding Heartland, but in recent cycles I’ve focused less on those numbers. Outside groups are poised to spend tens of millions of dollars on Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, probably dwarfing what the candidates spend. That said, I still think these fundraising numbers can be revealing as a proxy for grassroots enthusiasm and small donor engagement.

Bohannan out-raises Miller-Meeks again in IA-01

It’s no longer surprising to see Christina Bohannan raising more campaign funds than Mariannette Miller-Meeks. From May 14 through June 30, the Miller-Meeks campaign raised about $1 million, but less than half the total (around $468,000) came from individuals. PAC donations and transfers from other committees are keeping her afloat.

Meanwhile, Bohannan brought in around $1.4 million during the same period, most of it (about $1.1 million) from individual donors.

Compounding the problem for the incumbent, Miller-Meeks spent far more in the spring fending off her primary challenger than Bohannan did to get through the Democratic primary. For the first time, Bohannan has more cash on hand (around $5.4 million) than Miller-Meeks (nearly $4.7 million).

Michael Bridgford invests in campaign, touts new poll

The independent candidate in the first district, Michael Bridgford, reported raising about $189,000, including $100,000 in loans from the candidate and more than $22,000 donated by the candidate.

I misspoke on the air, saying Bridgford received a $6,000 donation from former presidential candidate Andrew Yang. In fact, Yang gave $1,000 and his “Forward Party” organization gave $5,000.

Bridgford’s cash on hand (just under $125,000) isn’t much compared to the major parties but is a lot for an independent or third-party candidate. It tells me he is determined to run a district-wide campaign.

On Monday Bridgford’s campaign released partial results from a poll conducted in May by “Independent Center Voice,” a group I’m not familiar with. It found 10.4 of respondents supported Bridgford “on the general election ballot test” and 19 percent had heard of him.

I’m skeptical about those numbers. The poll is two months old, and surveys often overstate support for third-party candidates. We rarely see a third-party or independent candidate for Congress in Iowa receive more than 2-3 percent of the votes in November. I would like to see some other pollster confirm Bridgford is above that level.

I have no idea whether Bridgford’s presence in the race is on balance helpful or damaging to either of the major-party candidates.

James out-raises Mitchell in IA-02

In the second Congressional district, Republican nominee Joe Mitchell reported raising around $377, but less than half of that amount ($174,000) came from individuals. He spent around $350,000 during the period and had just under $900,000 in the bank as of June 30.

Democrat Lindsay James raised about $755,000, including about $588,000 from individuals. That’s a lot considering IA-02 is not yet widely considered to be in the top tier of competitive U.S. House races. She had to spend more than Mitchell did in the spring to get through a three-way Democratic primary, but she still had about $755,000 cash on hand at the end of the second quarter.

Dave Bushaw, the independent running in the northwest Iowa district, is not raising a lot of money. He took in a little more than $12,000, which included a $5,000 donation from the Forward Party. His campaign has less than $12,000 cash on hand and $3,000 in unpaid bills.

For now, Libertarian Rick Stewart is on the ballot here, but Republicans are challenging that in court. He’s never been a big fundraiser.

Trone Garriott ahead of Nunn in IA-03 money race

I wrote months ago that Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott was well-positioned to win in IA-03. Now she has opened up a fundraising lead on GOP incumbent Zach Nunn. Between May 14 and June 30, her campaign raised around $1.4 million, including more than $1.1 million from individual donors.

In contrast, Nunn reported raising about $722,000, of which only $113,000 came from individual donors.

Neither candidate had a primary opponent, so they didn’t spend as much as some other Iowa Congressional candidates in the spring. Trone Garriott now leads the incumbent in cash on hand, with roughly $3.8 million in the bank compared to $3.5 million for Nunn.

Outside groups will spend a ton money in IA-03, but they can’t coordinate with the campaigns. So it’s still useful for candidates to make sure they will have the resources to fund a strong district-wide campaign before November.

A quieter campaign in IA-04

The fourth Congressional district is skewed toward Republicans in voter registrations and recent voting history, so it’s not a targeted race. Accordingly, the candidates are not raising much money.

GOP nominee Chris McGowan cleared the field for the primary and doesn’t seem the least bit concerned about the general election. He only raised about $42,000 in the latest fundraising period, nearly half from PACs. He does have about $328,000 cash on hand, but we aren’t likely to see many TV ads from him, compared to how Steve King used to campaign here.

Democratic nominee Dave Dawson reported raising about $37,000, including $5,000 from the Fourth District Democratic Committee and $2,000 each from the campaign committees of Ashley WolfTornabane (who competed in the primary) and Ryan Melton (the party’s nominee in IA-04 the last two cycles). Dawson’s campaign spent just under $24,000; the largest line items were for digital advertising and texting before the June 2 primary. As of June 30, Dawson had a little less than $50,000 on hand.

Grassley gives Todd Blanche his full support

We only had time for one story from Congress. Last Wednesday, Senator Chuck Grassley presided over a lengthy confirmation hearing for Todd Blanche, President Trump’s choice to be attorney general. His weekly email newsletter read like a dispatch from bizarro world. Excerpt:

Throughout his testimony, Blanche demonstrated the legal expertise, leadership and integrity needed to lead the Department of Justice. During my questioning, he reaffirmed his commitment to rooting out partisan lawfare, enforcing antitrust laws to protect family farmers, defending the rule of law and supporting crime victims. Blanche is highly qualified to serve as our nation’s top law enforcement official.

It’s not clear whether Blanche has enough support to be confirmed. With Senator Mitch McConnell unlikely to return to Washington soon, Republicans are down to 52 senators. They can only lose two of them if Vice President JD Vance breaks the tie. (Democratic Senator John Fetterman has been siding with the GOP on some issues lately, but has said he is against Blanche.)

Remembering Julian Garrett

For the last month, Spencer and I have wanted to take some time to remember the late State Senator Julian Garrett, who passed away soon after the June primary. We could never squeeze enough time into our format. This week we were able to pay tribute to the Republican from Warren County, who passed away in June after a long illness.

I wrote about Garrett’s persistence as a candidate and as a legislator last month:

That’s all for now. Thank you for reading or subscribing!