Iowa Supreme Court non-decision and a very special "Capitol Week"

Dennis and Laura meet for the first time

Jun 20, 2023

Laura Belin and Dennis Hart in the KHOI studio on June 19

My father used to say, “Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.”

A while back, Dennis Hart and I planned to do a longer program on June 19, when we would be able to record in studio together for the very first time.

It was fortunate we were scheduled to be on the air for nearly an hour Monday night. That gave us plenty of time to discuss one of the biggest Iowa political stories of the year: the Iowa Supreme Court’s resolution of a much-anticipated abortion case.

This was a lot more convenient for me than that one week in June 2015, when the Iowa Supreme Court released a major abortion decision while I was on vacation—my only trip overseas during the last decade.

Anyway, I drove up to KHOI Community Radio’s studio on Monday, so Dennis and I could finally meet in person.

Dennis and Laura, outside KHOI’s studio in Ames

Regular listeners may notice the audio sounds a bit different this week, because Dennis and I were in the studio rather than recording on Zoom (as with our previous 120+ programs). We also spent the last part of the show discussing a longer-term trend in Iowa politics, rather than events of the past week. Here’s the June 19 show:

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Of course, we started with the Iowa Supreme Court’s non-decision on Governor Kim Reynolds’ effort to reinstate the 2018 law that would ban almost all abortions after about six weeks.

I wanted to emphasize that the Iowa Supreme Court did not “block” the 2018 law from going into effect. Since there was no majority holding, the lower court ruling (which rejected all of the state’s arguments) remained in effect. If the case had been assigned to a different Polk County District Court judge, that ruling might have gone the other way, and abortion would be almost completely banned right now;
I summarized some of the key points from Justice Thomas Waterman’s opinion, joined by Justice Edward Mansfield and Chief Justice Susan Christensen, as well as opinions authored by Justice Christopher McDonald and Justice Matthew McDermott, joined by Justice David May. (A forthcoming Bleeding Heartland post will explore the arguments that will be central to future abortion litigation in Iowa. Subscribe to my other free email newsletter to receive a link to that piece when it’s online);
We briefly discussed reaction to Friday’s outcome by leading Iowa Republican and Democratic politicians, and what the Republicans didn’t say;
Bob Vander Plaats, who led the charge to oust three Iowa Supreme Court justices in 2010, came out publicly for removing the justices who didn’t allow the abortion ban to go into effect. We talked about possible avenues for doing so;
Republicans have vowed to keep working to ban abortion, but agreeing on the details of a new law may be difficult. I wrote more in depth about the bind they’re in at Bleeding Heartland, but the short version is that a significant number of House Republicans favor a complete abortion ban, even before six weeks, with no exceptions, while others might prefer something less strict than the 2018 law;
Governor Kim Reynolds hasn’t clarified whether she favors any changes to the bill she signed in 2018, but I can’t see her agreeing to anything less restrictive than a six-week ban;
A special legislative session seems inevitable, but Republicans need to reach consensus on the terms of a new bill first;
Another open question: will GOP lawmakers move forward with a state constitutional amendment on abortion? I think they will be too afraid to put the question to Iowa voters. But some influential social conservatives are advocating for the ballot measure;
Moving to Iowa caucus news: we talked about the latest developments in President Donald Trump’s criminal indictment, another newly declared presidential candidate, and how it affects the rest of the GOP field;
Senator Tim Scott and talk show host Larry Elder were back in Iowa last week; Elder falsely claimed Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird was on board with his proposal targeting liberal local prosecutors;
The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee did not approve the Iowa Democratic Party’s plan for the 2024 caucuses. But some Iowa Democrats aren’t giving up hope, and I recommend Dave Price’s latest interview with longtime DNC member Scott Brennan;
We acknowledged the recent passing of Daniel Ellsberg, who leaked the Pentagon Papers to the New York Times in 1971;
Midway through the show, KHOI played “Sentimental Journey” as a musical interlude. After that, Dennis and I talked about the “Capitol Week” origin story, which began the day after the 2020 general election. We’re nearly two and a half years into this journey, and we hope to continue for a long time;
Moving back to news of the past week, we discussed some fallout from the Iowa Senate Democratic leadership shake-up (more on that here); Erin Murphy was first to report on how getting involved in the intrigue cost former Senate Majority leader Mike Gronstal his lobbying job;
We spent a few minutes on Governor Reynolds passing over former Iowa House Republican Dustin Hite to appoint a Democratic trial lawyer to a District Court judgeship. To my knowledge, no one else has covered this story;
Reynolds and Iowa’s members of Congress are still calling for federal action to overturn California’s law setting minimum standards for pork producers selling their goods in the state;
The Iowa Board of Regents raised tuition again last week, which was not surprising, given the status-quo budget approved by the GOP-controlled legislature;
The price tag for Iowa’s new “school choice” plan keeps going up. We talked about how much the state legislature will likely need to approve next year, and what it means for future budgets;
Warren County Democrats are pushing for a special election for county auditor, after Republican county supervisors appointed a 2020 election denier to serve as the county’s top election administrator. They appear to have collected more than enough signatures, though that hasn’t been certified;
On Juneteenth, we acknowledged Dana James’ tremendous work in creating the Black Iowa Newspaper. I wrote about this last week, but you should check out Dana’s Black Iowa News website to learn more and subscribe;
During the last segment, we talked about one of the questions people ask me most often: what happened to Iowa? How did we go from being a swing state for decades to solid red? I think demographics are the biggest factor, but Dennis and I also talked about the changing media environment, which has worked against Democrats.
How did Trump find such a receptive audience in formerly Democratic strongholds, particularly working-class towns? The trend started before Trump and has continued beyond his presidency;
We touched on the demise of the Des Moines Register as an influential voice in state politics. I think the television news environment is important as well, and on this point highly recommend analysis by Macklin Scheldrup, which I recently published at Bleeding Heartland.
I pushed back on one of the most common explanations I hear: Iowa Democrats are losing because they “stopped talking to voters.” Results from state legislative races don’t bear that out.
Finally, we speculated about how long it could take for the pendulum to swing back in Iowa, and how Democrats can recruit successful candidates.

Thanks for reading or listening! Dennis and I have a lot of fun doing the show together, and we appreciate those who take the time to explore Iowa politics with us.

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