New ads; lawmakers work on budget, taxes, nominees, cancer
April 27 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"
Julie Gammack invited me to be on her Iowa Potluck podcast on Monday to answer questions about the legislative session and this year’s state and federal elections. Subscribe to her newsletter to receive the episode as soon as she posts it online.
Near the end of the show, Julie asked how readers can support my work. I don’t paywall any of my posts here or at Bleeding Heartland. And unlike most political journalists, I have to raise all of the funds to cover my salary and other operating expenses (such as web hosting, technical support, and subscriptions, and public records requests). To avoid conflicts of interest, I don’t accept contributions from Iowa elected officials, candidates, or paid campaign staff or consultants on Iowa campaigns. That excludes a large number of my dedicated readers!
So I’m grateful to all who have invested in my reporting, either through Substack or some other way (lots of options for one-time or recurring donations are listed here).
I also hold in-person fundraisers from time to time; let me know if you’d like to attend or host one of those events.
Back to our regularly scheduled programing: The audio file from our April 27 show is at the top of this post. Click here to find the “KHOI’s Capitol Week” archive.
Spencer Dirks and I covered a wide range of stories from the campaign trail, Congress, and the state legislature. Here’s the written recap, for those who would rather read than listen. If your email provider truncates this post, you can read it without interruption here.
GOP groups already spending on Iowa races
If you’re an Iowan who watches TV or streaming services, or uses the internet, be warned: you’re going to see a whole lot of ads about the Iowans running for Congress.
Some are already running. In mid-April, the National Republican Congressional Committee launched a digital ad campaign to boost incumbents including Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) and Zach Nunn (IA-03). Here’s one example of an ad emphasizing “real tax relief that puts more money back in your pocket. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and a double child tax credit.”
The American Action Network, which spent hundreds of thousands of dollars promoting Miller-Meeks before the 2024 primary, is also on the air and online with this spot. The ad claims Miller-Meeks “is delivering for us” and “led the charge for high-quality, less expensive health care, especially for rural Iowans.” My Iowa Writers’ Collaborative colleague Ed Tibbetts posted a good fact check of this commercial.
Although this ad is obviously designed to help Miller-Meeks’ campaign, it’s framed like many “issue” ads. Instead of saying, “Vote for Miller-Meeks,” it asks viewers to call her office and “thank her for delivering for all of us.”
Democratic-aligned groups making large ad buys in Iowa
We’ve mentioned before that the super PAC VoteVets is running ads for Senate candidate Josh Turek. Their spending already exceeds $4.5 million.
Iowa Starting Line was first to report last week that the House Majority PAC “is reserving more than $10.8 million in Iowa television and digital advertising.” That includes $4.7 million in the Cedar Rapids media market (covering part of IA-01 and most of IA-02), $3.5 million in the Des Moines market (covering most of IA-03 and part of IA-01), and $2.7 million in the Quad Cities (covering part of IA-01).
Some of these ads may promote Democratic candidates, but if past experience is any guide, much of the spending will go toward negative ads about the GOP nominees.
David Pautsch’s case against Miller-Meeks
Before she can worry about the general election, Miller-Meeks needs to defeat her primary challenger, David Pautsch. He’s running a low-budget campaign, using social media. I interviewed Pautsch last year about his case against the incumbent, but it’s been a while since we covered his message on “KHOI’s Capitol Week.”
In a recent Facebook video, Pautsch framed the GOP primary as an opportunity for “quality control” and “vetting your candidates,” so that when November 3 comes around, “you don’t have to hold your nose because you have to vote for a RINO.”
Pautsch didn’t mention Miller-Meeks by name in the video, but said June 2 was when voters would “get a chance to choose a good candidate.” In his view, that’s someone with “passion for the unborn,” who cares about getting rid of “bloated spending bills,” national security, “reducing the Islamic threat,” election fraud, and "a candidate who really wants to “honor God with his voice and his vote.”
Miller-Meeks defeated Pautsch in the 2024 primary by a surprisingly narrow margin: 56 percent to 44 percent. He’s had more than a year to campaign this cycle. On the other hand, Miller-Meeks now has Donald Trump’s endorsement, which wasn’t a factor in the race two years ago.
Why is JD Vance coming to campaign with Zach Nunn?
I was surprised when Vice President JD Vance scheduled an Iowa visit to campaign with Nunn. I can’t see how that would be helpful to one of the most endangered House incumbents. Trump’s approval is almost certainly well underwater in IA-03, and Vance has generally been less popular than the president. Organizers haven’t announced where or when the Nunn event with Vance will be held, which makes me think it could be a closed fundraiser rather than a public rally or town halld.
My best guess is that they are bringing in Vance to shore up Nunn with the GOP base. He’s never been a favorite among MAGA Republicans, and he was late to jump on the Trump train. As a member of the Iowa House, Nunn endorsed Jeb Bush before the 2016 caucuses. As a member of Congress, he didn’t endorse a presidential candidate before the 2024 caucuses.
Also worth noting: Vance may be planning many trips to Iowa as he prepares to run for president in 2028.
Soon after we recorded the show, Vance’s campaign event with Nunn was rescheduled from April 30 to May 5, apparently because House leaders need Nunn for votes in Washington this Thursday. Vance was going to headline a Turning Point USA event on the Iowa State University campus this Thursday, but the group announced that they will try to reschedule that rally for the fall semester.
Why I see IA-03 tilting to Sarah Trone Garriott
National election forecasters rate Iowa’s third Congressional district as either a tossup or “lean Republican.” I recently argued that Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott would defeat Nunn if the election were held today. Here’s that piece:
To summarize briefly: this fall is shaping up to be generally tough environment for Republicans. While many incumbents do survive difficult midterm elections, even when their party’s president is unpopular, Nunn hasn’t shown that he can overperform the top of the GOP ticket. He won in 2024 by about the same 4-point margin that Trump had in the district.
As we noted on last week’s show, the Trone Garriott raised more money than Nunn in the first quarter. About 75 percent of the votes in the district will come from Polk and Dallas counties, where Democrats are very well organized. In addition, Republicans appear concerned about GOP base turnout.
Incumbents have plenty of advantages, so I’m not saying Nunn is out of the running here. But I do think he needs to change the dynamic.
Adam Steen on TV with “Good vs. Evil” message
Adam Steen became the third GOP candidate for governor to start running TV ads. His pitch to social conservatives is not subtle. Here’s the message he delivers in his own voice: “I’m a Christian conservative. I’ll defend life. I’ll protect your kids against radical, woke ideology. I’ll keep the Satanists out of the Capitol. Because our Iowa values are under attack, and we don’t keep them without a fight. This campaign is a battle of good versus evil.”
I got a kick out of this visual from the ad:
Steen’s campaign didn’t say how much they are spending. It’s probably less than what Randy Feenstra and Zach Lahn (who is largely self-funding) are putting behind TV ads.
The other two GOP candidates for governor are Eddie Andrews, who probably won’t be up on TV, and Brad Sherman, who could fund a small buy at most.
Zach Lahn’s second ad spotlights education tropes
Lahn’s second TV ad went up last week. The theme is education: he promises that when he’s governor, “We will reclaim the curriculum from the Marxists who hijacked it,” and kids will learn “what is good, true, and beautiful about our country, and about the Western tradition.”
Speaking to the camera, Lahn claims that freedom “has to be taught. Too many schools today teach kids to hate our country, our history, and our religion.”
My kids went through the Des Moines Public Schools from pre-K to 12, and they definitely did not learn to hate the country or its history. That said, these talking points are staples for the conservative Republicans, especially those who advocate for private schools or homeschooling.
Steve King endorses Lahn for governor
We reported last week that former U.S. Representative Steve King said he was moving toward Lahn. He made that official at a campaign event last Thursday in Altoona. He argued that “this race is about saving our state and giving us the best chance to win in November. And there is only one conservative who has momentum. There’s one conservative that’s got the resources to fight this out. There’s one candidate who has vision like no other candidate for governor I have ever seen, who is full of fantastic ideas, and talking about our health and the cancer crisis.”
Lahn said he was honored, having grown up with King representing him in Congress. In a statement from the campaign, he called King “a man with a spine and unafraid to stand up for what he believes in,” adding, “This race is about whether Iowa belongs to its people or to the special interests and outsiders cashing in on our state.”
No doubt this endorsement could help Lahn with conservative voters who still strongly approve of King and feel he was wronged by the establishment.
On the other hand, I see a chance of this driving some Republicans to Feenstra. Moderates may seem like an endangered species in today’s GOP, but they do exist, especially in urban and suburban areas. Many of them agree with Terry Branstad that King became an “embarrassment” to Iowa.
Lahn, Steen attend all four GOP district conventions
Lahn and Steen are competing to become the main alternative to Feenstra. On Saturday, both of them attended all four Republican district conventions, located in Tiffin (IA-01), Oelwein (IA-02), Osceola (IA-03), and Storm Lake (IA-04). CORRECTION: I learned this week that Steen intended to speak at all of the conventions, but he didn’t make it to Storm Lake in time.
Lahn flew himself around the state. According to his campaign, he’s been a private pilot for 20 years, following in the footsteps of his father and grandfather. Steen posted a picture of a plane on Facebook, saying he was “Traveling the state in style today as we make our way around Iowa for District Convention.” I couldn’t tell whether his campaign chartered the plane or received the flights as an in-kind donation from a supporter.
Why were they intent on speaking at all four conventions? The district convention delegates will also be delegates to the GOP state convention in June. If no candidate for governor gets at least 35 percent of the primary vote, the state convention delegates will select the nominee.
Even if someone does win the nomination outright, the state convention has to approve the lieutenant governor candidate. If Feenstra wins the primary, I expect some effort to nominate a different running mate from whoever Feenstra picks.
Without having airplanes at their displosal, how did the other candidates for governor juggle their schedules on Saturday? Feenstra spoke at the first and second district conventions and sent others to represent him in the third and fourth districts. Andrews spoke to delegates at the first, second, and third districts. Sherman spoke at the second and fourth district conventions, and dispatched his sons to represent him in the first and third districts.
Iowa SOS criticizes Trump order on voting by mail
We didn’t have time to cover this on last week’s show, but on April 15, Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate told reporters he has “serious concerns” about President Trump’s executive order, which would restrict voting by mail across the country. Pate noted (correctly) that the U.S. Constitution says states run elections. While Trump wants the U.S. Postal Service to deliver absentee ballots only to voters on a federally approved list, Pate suggested it would be impractical to bring the post office in as a partner “at the 11th hour.” You can read more in the Des Moines Register’s story.
Many states are challenging the order, but Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird did not join that lawsuit. I would be very surprised if federal courts uphold Trump’s order.
It won’t affect absentee voting for Iowa’s upcoming primary. Early voting (in person or by mail) starts on May 13.
Chuck Grassley recovering from surgery
We had time for a few stories from Congress. Senator Chuck Grassley posted on X last Monday that he had a procedure in Iowa to remove gallstones. He said he was grateful for the excellent care he received and will be back to the Capitol “ASAP.”
We wish him a speedy recovery. He’s been posting on social media regularly this past week but wasn’t in the chamber for roll calls. Over the course of his career, Grassley has missed very few Senate floor votes. I saw that he’s back to work this week.
Grassley plans briefing on security protocols
On Saturday night, a would-be assassin tried to get into the ballroom where President Trump and other senior administration officials were attending the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.
Grassley posted on Sunday that he is setting up a briefing with Secret Service leadership and Senator Dick Durbin, the ranking Democrat on Judiciary. He did something similar after previous assassination attempts against Trump.
Iowa delegation votes against restraining Trump on Iran
We couldn’t get to this story last week: Democrats in Congress tried again to restrict the military campaign against Iran. Ernst and Grassley opposed the motion to discharge a war powers resolution from committee on April 15. A House vote the next day failed by a single vote, with all four Iowans voting no.
Democratic leaders will keep trying to force votes on war powers measures. I haven’t seen any Iowa-specific polling on the war in Iran, but every national survey indicates the military campaign is unpopular.
Grassley wants Ted Cruz or Mike Lee on SCOTUS
Earlier this month, Trump said during a Fox Business interview that he’d like to appoint more Supreme Court justices who could serve for 40 years. We don’t know who’s on Trump’s short list. But if an opening arises, the Senate Judiciary chair has some ideas for the president.
David Sivak, a reporter for the Washington Examiner, posted on April 14 that Grassley “tells me he’ll recommend to Trump that Mike Lee or Ted Cruz replace Samuel Alito, should he retire. Grassley said he hopes Justice Alito doesn’t retire.
Former members of Congress often have a smooth ride through the confirmation process, but Lee or Cruz would be an explosive pick, because both are highly partisan, and neither has served as a judge.
There has been some reporting that Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas don’t plan to retire this year, but a lot of Democrats are skeptical. Alito has a book coming out in October, and some suspect he plans to be off the court so he can do a book tour.
Ernst honors fired U.S. Army chief of staff
Last Wednesday, Senator Joni Ernst paid tribute to the former U.S. Army Chief of Staff, General Randy George, who is from Iowa. She said throughout his military career, he had been “a consistent leader” and “built winning, capable teams.” And Ernst said General George would be remembered as “a soldier’s soldier, which in the army is the highest of compliments.”
I thought this was interesting because she had avoided public comment on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s decision to force George out before the end of his term. Her office did send out the remarks in a news release, but I didn’t find the video on Ernst’s official YouTube channel. Some other excerpts from Ernst’s remarks:
He literally commanded at every level of the Army, and our army is so much stronger, agile and lethal because of his leadership. […]
General Randy George’s legacy will endure through the thousands and thousands of soldiers that were shaped by his mentorship and example.
“I know he will continue to serve our nation.
“Sir, General George, I am honored to be your Senator.
“So today, as I hold the floor of the Senate in the heart of the nation’s capital, on behalf of an extremely grateful nation, I extend my deepest thanks and appreciation to General Randy A. George, for his extraordinary service, sacrifice, and leadership.
House, Senate leaders close to budget agreement
We spent the last third of our show on legislative happenings. To no one’s surprise, the legislature is in overtime. But last week we saw signs of progress toward adjourning, as House and Senate leaders announced an agreement on budget targets.
They’re only about $3 million apart, with both agreeing to spend nearly $9.65 billion from the state’s general fund. That would be an increase of 1.43 percent from last year’s budget. State revenues are projected to fall more than $1 billion below that level.
The House approved their first budget bill on Monday afternoon: the administration and regulation budget (covering the offices of statewide elected officials and some agencies including the Department of Administrative Services). Also on Monday, the Senate approved the transportation appropriations bill by a unanimous vote. That is traditionally the most bipartisan spending bill.
If the budget were the only thing standing in the way of adjournment, they might wrap up this week. But there are other issues left to resolve.
House approves property tax bill
Last Wednesday, the House approved its version of property tax reform, amending Senate File 2472, which the Senate passed in early April. It’s still very different from the Senate’s approach.
The House vote fell mostly along party lines, with three Democrats (Sean Bagniewski, Kenan Judge, and Dan Gosa) joining Republicans to vote yes on final passage. The Senate vote had been very different, with only four members (three Republicans and a Democrat) opposing the property tax bill.
The House bill includes a “hard cap” of 2 percent increases in local government revenues, regardless of what happens with property assessments. State Representative Carter Nordman, who floor managed the bill, said, “For too long, our property tax system has put certainty for government budgets over the certainty of family budgets. Today, we flip that script.”
The House bill would also change Iowa’s homestead tax credit to a new exemption, and triple its value to $15,000. The state would use the money saved from eliminating the tax credit to reduce the state’s levy for school foundation property taxes. There are also provisions to limit Tax Increment Financing (TIF) districts, a popular economic development tool for local governments.
The House bill does not contain several important components of the Senate version, such as the gas tax hike (intended to help fund roads and bridges), higher property taxes for apartment buildings (House members said that would raise rents for about 40 percent of Iowans), special breaks for homeowners over age 65, and an inflation adjustment for local government revenue growth (the so-called “soft cap”).
Both House and Senate leaders have expressed optimism about finding compromise. But the two property tax bills are so different, it’s hard to see how they will find middle ground.
House pages stuffed campaign mailers for Republican member
Last week, Iowa Starting Line’s Zachary Oren Smith published photos showing House pages stuffing envelopes with campaign mailings for Representative Jennifer Smith, a Republican from Dubuque. Iowa law prohibits state employees (including legislative pages and clerks) from doing campaign work on the job. This was very blatant, right there in the House lobbyist lounge during the day.
Smith represents House district 72, covering part of Dubuque. She defeated a long-serving Democratic incumbent in 2024, and this seat was already likely to be a top-targeted legislative race.
I asked Speaker Pat Grassley about this story on Thursday. Considering that there was no effort to hide what the pages were doing, I wondered whether pages often do this kind of work for Republican members. I also wanted to know whether Smith will be disciplined or reprimanded. Grassley said he didn’t want to comment and hadn’t had a chance to speak with Smith about it.
I expect someone to file an ethics complaint against Smith.
Senate Democrats vote down HHS director
Ever since Catelin Drey won a special Iowa Senate election last August, we’ve noted that Democrats now have the numbers to block Governor Kim Reynolds’ appointees. They exercised that power for the first time last week, voting down Larry Johnson as director of the Iowa Department of Health and Human Services and Todd Abrahamson as a member of the state Board of Education.
With only 33 Republican senators and 34 votes needed for a two-thirds majority, every nominee needs at least one Democratic vote. Realistically they need three Democratic supporters, since GOP Senator Julian Garrett has been absent for every day of floor debate this year, and Senator Dave Rowley has missed many days as he undergoes cancer treatment.
I’m working on a deep dive about these confirmation votes. But here’s the short version on why Democrats blocked Larry Johnson’s nomination.
The Department of Health and Human Services has not been responsive to some legislative requests for information. We covered this on “KHOI’s Capitol Week” a year ago, and the problem has come up several times again this year.
The agency is reportedly encouraging managed care companies to cut home-based services for disabled people on Medicaid. That’s devastating for many families who want to keep their loved ones at home.
For months, HHS officials were not responsive to Democratic State Senator Tony Bisignano’s concerns about foster care and a child welfare task force.
Many people are not happy with how HHS has administered the Early Childhood Iowa program since the state government reorganization in 2023. In late March, Senator Cindy Winckler raised this issue in a point of personal privilege. I published the video on my YouTube channel.
Democrats rejected Todd Abrahamson because he had backed the 2024 overhaul of Iowa’s Area Education Agencies.
Reynolds and Senate Majority Leader Mike Klimesh complained that it was a break with precedent for Democrats not to inform the governor that the nomination was in danger. Doing that would have allowed Reynolds to withdraw the nominees and reappoint them after adjournment.
Senate Minority Leader Janice Weiner pointed out that Democrats have confirmed 159 out of 161 Reynolds nominees brought to the floor this year.
House, Senate at odds over funding pediatric cancer research
We wrapped up with a few stories related to the legislature’s work on Iowa’s cancer problem. For years, Democrats have proposed increasing state funding for pediatric cancer research. The concept was to spend around $1 for every Iowan. Now, the House and Senate have each approved bills to provide $3 million for pediatric cancer research. But they take different approaches.
House File 2758 is a straight general fund appropriation of $3 million per year. Senate File 2480 would create a 5-cent tax on vaping products and nicotine pouches. The first $3 million raised would fund pediatric cancer research, with additional revenue going toward Medicaid.
Cancer has become a more salient political issue over the past couple of years. Iowans are well aware that we have a high and rising cancer rate. At the governor’s request, lawmakers allocated $1 million for research last year. A few weeks ago, researchers from the University of Iowa reported on some of their early findings a few weeks ago.
Although Iowa’s pediatric cancer rates aren’t higher than the national average, advocates say more research is needed because kids can’t always have the same treatments adults could obtain for the same kind of cancer.
House, Senate at odds over tanning bed bill
Both chambers have approved versions of a bill that would require parental consent for Iowans under age 18 to use tanning beds. But the House and Senate haven’t agreed on the language.
The House approved House File 524, spearheaded by State Representative Hans Wilz, last year. The Senate didn’t take it up in 2025, but approved the bill in early April, with an amendment taking out a provision that would have required the consent forms to include cancer warning language. (Research has shown that indoor tanning greatly increases the risk of melanoma, especially for young people.)
When it went back to the lower chamber, House members refused to concur in the Senate amendment. Without a cancer warning, the parental consent forms would be far less useful. Now it’s a waiting game: will the Senate take up this bill again? If so, will they accept the House language or send the bill to a conference committee?
Radon mitigation bill in limbo
A radon mitigation bill, also approved by the House, is in limbo on the Senate’s unfinished business calendar.
House File 2297 would require new single-family or two-family homes to have a radon mitigation system installed during construction. My understanding is that most home builders are already doing this, which may be why (surprisingly, to me) no entity is lobbying against the bill. Radon is the second-leading cause of lung cancer in Iowa, after smoking.
Bills on the unfinished business calendar are eligible for floor debate at any time. But more often than not, they don’t see the light of day before the legislature adjourns.
Republican bill could increase future cancer cases
The House gave final approval this month to one bill that could undermine cancer-fighting efforts. Senate File 304 would require parental consent for 16- and 17-year-olds to get the HPV vaccine. The concept behind the current law is that 16 is the age of consent for sex in Iowa. So it’s also the age of consent for STD treatment and certain vaccinations.
During the floor debate, Democratic State Reprepresentative Austin Baeth (who is a medical doctor) called this a “pro-cancer” bill. He noted that Iowa is first in the nation for head and neck cancers, and the majority of them are related to HPV.
The bill also affects the Hepatitis B vaccine. Hepatitis B infections can cause liver disease or liver cancer later in life.
That’s all for now! Thanks for reading or listening.
Spencer and I didn’t have time to cover a brand-new House bill that would ban counties from holding warrant resolution clinics. Dave Price, Kathie Obradovich, and I discussed that on the latest “Iowa Down Ballot” podcast.