New Selzer poll, plenty of Iowa campaign news, and more

August 21 "Capitol Week" is online

Aug 22, 2023

I learned today that a few spots have opened up for the Okoboji Writers’ Retreat, a fantastic event Julie Gammack is organizing for the third straight year. If you have any interest in writing and can come to Iowa’s “Great Lakes” region between September 17 and 20, check out the program. I attended the previous two retreats and am looking forward to this one.

Speaking of writing, guest authors have submitted more posts to Bleeding Heartland this year than ever. We’re just 21 days into August, and I’ve already published 26 guest articles and commentaries this month, with a few more in the queue for tomorrow or Wednesday.

Most weeks, I only cross-post one Bleeding Heartland piece on Substack, but there’s lots of other interesting material at the main website. Within the past week or so, I broke some news about a civil lawsuit involving State Senator Adrian Dickey, Sondra Felstein wrote about an important lawsuit that’s mostly flown below the radar, Dave Leshtz reflected on the storied history of Iowa City’s Hamburg Inn, Bruce Lear shared some back-to-school advice for the education community, Nancy Dugan highlighted controversy surrounding the Iowa Utilities Board’s docket for one of the proposed CO2 pipelines, and Beth Lynch explained the difference between white baneberry and red baneberry (which sometimes produces white berries). That’s just a sampling, not an exhaustive list.

If you don’t want to miss anything published at Bleeding Heartland, sign up for my other free email newsletter, where I periodically share all the recent headlines.

On to our regularly scheduled programming! Dennis Hart and I were on the air live at 7:00 pm Monday to talk about the biggest Iowa political stories. The full “Capitol Week” archive is on KHOI’s website. Here’s the audio from our August 21 program:

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Rundown of topics we covered this week:

Ann Selzer’s new poll for the Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom was the talk of the Iowa political world on Monday. The Register’s write-up on Donald Trump’s “commanding lead” is here, and NBC’s is here. Dan Guild shared his insights and historical perspective on the size of Trump’s lead at Bleeding Heartland (he also thinks DeSantis misread the GOP electorate);
There’s not much good news for anyone who doesn’t want Trump to become the GOP nominee. Not only is the former president far ahead of other contenders, he is doing better among evangelical Christians (who have powered some dark horse candidates in past cycles) than among the entire poll sample. During our broadcast, I forgot to mention another data point: a higher percentage of Trump supporters have made up their minds, compared to those backing other contenders;
Trump is skipping this Wednesday’s televised debate and plans to avoid the future GOP primary debates as well. Dennis and I discussed why there’s no upside for Trump in participating;
The New York Times reported in detail on memos outlining a debate strategy for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis; I explained why this material ever in the public domain;
We briefly went through which candidates has qualified for the showdown in Milwaukee, and whether there’s a path for any of them (I don’t think most of them are in it to become the GOP nominee);
I was intrigued to see that Chris Christie had 5 percent support in the latest Selzer poll, even though he hasn’t campaigned in Iowa at all. He received less than 2 percent support in the 2016 Iowa caucuses, after making a big play for Republican support in this state;
We didn’t spend a lot of time on the indictment handed down last week in Georgia, but I explained some of the key differences between this criminal case and the special counsel’s federal indictment related to Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election result;
Can Trump serve as president, even if convicted? Some legal scholars have argued that he is already “constitutionally prohibited” from serving as president, under a clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Chris Geidner wrote a good summary of the discussion, but Dennis and I agree that none of this would prevent Trump from returning to the White House if he wins the election;
There was nothing new about how other presidential candidates reacted to the latest Trump indictment, but several of them dodged the question of whether the alleged conduct (if true) is acceptable;
Several candidates came to the Iowa State Fair since last Monday’s show; we briefly talked about Asa Hutchinson, Tim Scott, Ryan Binkley, Perry Johnson, and Will Hurd;
Marjorie Taylor Greene went to the fair on Saturday as a Trump surrogate, and that reminded me of how the normal rules of politics don’t apply to Trump;
Caleb McCullough and Erin Murphy wrote a piece for the Cedar Rapids Gazette about how Governor Kim Reynolds “was the star this month of the Iowa State Fair.” Dennis and I talked about how much time and energy she puts into the fair every year, and how her “fair-side chats” generated even more publicity. It’s worth noting that State Auditor Rob Sand (the only remaining Democratic statewide elected official) spends quite a bit of time at the fair as well; I saw him judge the kids’ joke-telling contest on Friday;
Reynolds flew to Texas on Monday for a joint press conference with other Republican governors who have deployed National Guard personnel or state troopers to the southern border;
Democrat Christina Bohannan made it official last week: she’s running for Congress again in Iowa’s first district. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks won last year’s election by close to 7 points, but Bohannan is banking on high presidential election-year turnout and a deeper focus on reproductive rights among 2024 voters;
No Democrats have declared yet in Iowa’s second or third Congressional districts; Ryan Melton is running in the fourth, and Dr. Jay Brown of Ames seems likely to join that Democratic primary as well;
Democrat Matt Blake kicked off his Iowa Senate campaign last week, setting up a high-profile showdown with Republican Brad Zaun (I wrote an in-depth preview of this race over the weekend);
A Polk County District Court judge ruled on Friday in favor of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) in an important voting rights case. The upshot is that Iowa election officials can print all voting materials in language other than English. The state may appeal this decision to the Iowa Supreme Court;
We discussed the latest twist in the civil lawsuit State Senator Adrian Dickey’s daughter filed against him last month;
The Iowa Utilities Board is scheduled to hold a hearing on August 22 regarding Summit Carbon Solutions’ application for a permit to construct a CO2 pipeline across Iowa; advocates who oppose the pipeline have been critical of the board’s handling of the docket so far.

Dennis and I didn’t have time to get into this, but the Republican National Committee needs to rethink its debate criteria. There is some logic behind the polling thresholds, but too many polls (including the latest by Selzer) don’t have a large enough sample to qualify for the RNC’s consideration. The donor number requirement was intended to make sure only candidates with a broad base of support made it onto the stage. But it’s turned into a stupid game where any campaign can get 40,000 donors by paying random people $10 or $20 for every $1 donation. It’s meaningless.

That said, I will be watching on Wednesday evening and expect fireworks from Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy in particular.

If you enjoy our radio show, please spread the word about KHOI’s “Capitol Week.”