Ratings, ads, and messages in Iowa's four U.S. House races
Oct. 7 "Capitol Week" is online
It’s hard to believe the election is only four weeks away! I have too many projects to finish before then, including state government stories and coverage of legislative races.
and I spent much of this week’s show discussing Iowa’s Congressional races, which have attracted more national attention lately as well as big spending by outside groups aligned with U.S. House Republicans and Democrats.The Iowa Writers’ Collaborative now has a political podcast called Iowa Down Ballot. We are recording weekly through the November election. Dave Busiek moderated the latest episode.
On to the latest “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The full radio show archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.
Topics Spencer and I discussed on October 7:
We started with our impressions from last week’s vice presidential debate. I had more to say about that on Iowa Down Ballot;
The Cook Political Report moved its rating on Iowa’s first and third Congressional districts from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” We talked about some of the factors that influence forecaster ratings;
Cook Political described IA-01 Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks as a “uniquely weak incumbent.” I explained why she’s more disliked than many Republican members of Congress. You can find more background on this in my write-up of Miller-Meeks’ underwhelming win against an under-funded conservative primary challenger;
Miller-Meeks has managed to anger all sides on some issues—for instance, by promoting COVID-19 vaccinations but later appealing to anti-maskers and spreading disinformation about vaccines and the Biden administration’s pandemic response;
The election forecasters Split Ticket and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rate IA-01 as a “lean Republican” race, so I listed some factors that tilt in favor of the incumbent;
Cook Political changed its rating in IA-03 in large part because Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be leading there. I summarized why the third district is more friendly territory than the first for Democrats in the presidential race;
Democrats have a strong ground game in Polk and Dallas counties, which contain about three-quarters of the IA-03 electorate. I shared some impressions from a volunteer event over the weekend at the Ankeny Area Democrats office;
We talked about the huge sums being spent to influence the outcome in IA-01 and IA-03. The Downballot maintains a user-friendly spreadsheet (updated weekly) on outside spending by the top four groups that intervene in U.S. House races;
Abortion remains the top issue for ads supporting Democratic challengers Christina Bohannan and Lanon Baccam;
Both Miller-Meeks and IA-03 incumbent Zach Nunn have filmed tv ads about abortion. The Republican candidates speak directly to the camera and assure viewers they do support exceptions to abortion bans. I avoid editorializing on the radio show, but Nunn’s claim to support “common-sense limits” on abortion is a sick joke. Iowa law now bans most abortions before people even realize they are pregnant;
The Congressional Leadership Fund is trying to tie Bohannan and Baccam to “radical” policies such as defunding the police. I will have more to say at Bleeding Heartland about the racism embedded in the GOP group’s tv ads against Baccam;
Baccam filmed a commercial responding to those attacks, assuring Iowans he supports “fully funding law enforcement, adding more border agents, and stopping the flow of fentanyl into our communities. Anybody who says different is just making stuff up”;
I wanted to spend a few minutes on the second Congressional district race. Whereas IA-02 was a targeted district in 2022, with millions of dollars spent for and against Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Liz Mathis, this year no outside groups have gotten involved. I haven’t seen any tv ads yet, even though Hinson has raised millions of dollars this cycle. I suspect she is going to save most of what’s in her campaign bank account to support a future bid for U.S. Senate in Iowa;
Democratic challenger Sarah Corkery is keeping up a busy schedule of events around IA-02. She has predicted the race will be much closer than people expect, and said at one recent event, “We need Jody (Puffett) to get about 5 percent of the vote. That is how we take this whole thing over.” I explained why it’s unlikely the independent candidate on the ballot will hit the 5 percent mark—but I do expect Puffett to draw votes mostly from Hinson;
National forecasters rate IA-02 as safe for Republicans. On paper, it looks more like a likely GOP hold. The financial disparity between the candidates is huge, and Republican internal polling is presumably showing Hinson in good shape. If she does seek statewide office later this decade, though, IA-02 should be competitive as an open seat;
I summed up the key campaign issues for Corkery and Hinson. The incumbent is highlighting some of the funding she brought back to the district through the earmark process;
The fourth district is more justifiably rated “safe Republican.” Democratic challenger Ryan Melton did a solo appearance on Iowa PBS last week, since GOP incumbent Randy Feenstra declined the invitation to debate. I talked about what Melton sees as signs of success for his campaign;
In a district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 100,000, Melton has been doing a lot of outreach to the GOP rank and file. I explained the issues where he has tried to find common ground with Republicans;
Governor Kim Reynolds confirmed last week that she won’t name a new lieutenant governor until after the election. I speculated about factors that may influence her decision. I do expect Reynolds to seek another term in 2026, so I think she will choose a governing partner, rather than a potential candidate for governor. One name I’ve heard recently: Department of Management Director Kraig Paulsen, who is the governor’s budget director;
Reynolds held a press conference last week with Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig and some business leaders to discuss their recent trade mission to India. They are working on opening markets in India to more Iowa products and technology. I wasn’t able to get an answer from Reynolds or Naig about former President Donald Trump’s comments about India and tariffs;
At that news conference, I asked the governor whether she would be open to revising Iowa’s limits on medical cannabis and hemp consumable products. She pivoted to talking about why (in her view) legalizing marijuana has led to terrible outcomes in states like California, Oregon, and Colorado;
State Auditor Rob Sand, the leading prospective Democratic candidate for governor, indicated last week he will decide which office he’s running for in 2026 sooner next year than he did in the last election cycle. You can listen to his whole interview on Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck podcast here. In July, I analyzed a speech by Sand that previewed some 2026 campaign themes;
Finally, we talked about the Iowa Department of Transportation’s decisions on traffic camera requests for local governments. You can read more about that in the Cedar Rapids Gazette or the Des Moines Register.
Thanks for reading or listening! If you’re following the IA-03 race, you’ll want to watch the October 8 debate between Baccam and Nunn.
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