Real talk on the long odds facing Iowa Democrats in 2026

"It's a very tall order"

Photo first published on the Facebook page of the Johnson County Auditor’s office on February 4, 2025

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The last time Donald Trump was president, Iowa Democrats had a pretty good midterm election. The party’s candidates defeated two Republican members of Congress, came surprisingly close to beating U.S. Representative Steve King, had a net gain of five Iowa House seats (and almost a sixth), and came within 3 points of winning the governor’s race.

Many Democrats like their chances of improving on that tally in 2026.

But before they get too excited, they need to understand the terrain is now much more favorable to Iowa Republicans than it was during the 2018 election cycle.

A huge GOP voter registration advantage, combined with consistently higher turnout for Republicans in midterm years, make it hard to construct a winning scenario for Democrats in Iowa’s 2026 statewide elections.

To overcome those long odds, Democrats will need not only strong GOTV and good messaging, but also a better voter registration effort over the coming year than the party has seen in decades.

IOWA DEMOCRATS ARE IN A DEEP HOLE

This post is about elections where all Iowa voters will determine the outcome: the races for U.S. Senate and any of the statewide offices (governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer, secretary of agriculture, and state auditor).

Democratic prospects are better in some of the Congressional and legislative races, where voter registration totals and potential turnout are more favorable.

For every statewide race, though, Republicans far outnumber Democrats in the potential voter universe. That wasn’t the case in the first Trump midterm, or even in the GOP landslide years of 2010, 2014, and 2022.

I created this table using figures the Iowa Secretary of State’s office released at the beginning of November in each midterm election year. The numbers reflect all registered voters (“active” plus “inactive”) but don’t include anyone who registered on election day after Iowa enacted same-day registration in 2007.

Democrats built up voter registration advantages in the 2000s, thanks in part to spirited Iowa caucus campaigns during George W. Bush’s presidency. The last competitive Iowa caucus for Democrats happened in 2019 and 2020.

Meanwhile, Republicans have invested heavily in voter registration efforts in recent years. By December 2023, official figures showed registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats in Iowa by about 85,000.

The GOP’s voter registration advantage grew to about 110,000 in February 2024, in part because there was no active presidential campaign on the Democratic side. Many Iowa Democrats changed parties in January to caucus for Nikki Haley or some other alternative to Trump.

But it wasn’t just a temporary bump for the GOP. By January 2025, Iowa had around 156,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. The GOP advantage grew again after the Secretary of State’s office removed more than 180,000 inactive voters from the rolls early this year.

The latest official figures show that as of June 2025, Iowa had 596,535 registered Democrats, 775,132 Republicans, and 721,951 no-party voters.

That’s right: registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats by more than 178,000. Keep in mind that total votes cast in recent Iowa midterms have ranged from around 1.13 million in 2010 to 1.33 million in 2018.

It gets worse.

REPUBLICANS TURN OUT AT A HIGHER RATE FOR IOWA MIDTERMS

Using the statewide statistical reports on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website, I created this table to break down the turnout rates by partisan affiliation for Iowa’s last six midterm elections. (Note that the official figures measure turnout as a percentage of registered voters, not as a percentage of eligible voters, the preferred metric for many experts in this field.)

A couple of points stand out. Republican turnout has consistently outpaced Democratic turnout, even in the blue wave year of 2006 and the first Trump midterm.

In addition, turnout for voters not affiliated with either major party tanks in non-presidential years, compared to the turnout rate for partisans.

Low Democratic turnout contributed to the wipe-out midterm elections during Barack Obama’s presidency. Iowa Democrats went into the 2010 general election with a voter registration advantage. Yet the statewide statistical report indicates that around 447,000 Republicans cast ballots that year, while only 395,000 Democrats did.

Democrats and Republicans were nearly even in voter registrations going into the 2014 midterm election. Yet among Iowans who cast a ballot that year, there were more than 452,000 Republicans and just under 375,000 Democrats.

The turnout disparity alone may have cost Democrats two statewide elections in 2022. Roby Smith won the state treasurer’s race by 30,942 votes, and Brenna Bird won the attorney general’s race by 20,542 votes. If the Democratic turnout rate had been 63 percent instead of just over 60 percent that year, Tom Miller would in all likelihood still be Iowa’s attorney general—even without moving any voters through better persuasion.

If 65 percent of registered Democrats had turned out for the 2022 midterm, both Miller and Michael Fitzgerald would be extending their record-setting tenures as attorney general and state treasurer. Again, that’s assuming no change in how Republicans or independents voted.

The good news for Democrats is that signs point to strong turnout for the 2026 midterm. Trump’s authoritarian policies and plans to gut federal government programs while giving more tax cuts to millionaires have energized the Democratic base. Tens of thousands of Iowans turned out for “Hands Off” rallies in April and “No Kings” protests on June 14.

In addition, Democratic candidates produced a swing of more than 20 points in all three special elections for the Iowa House or Senate this year—an indicator of grassroots enthusiasm.

But if the current voter registration numbers hold, high Democratic turnout will not be enough to win statewide in 2026—even if Trump’s tariffs drive the economy into a ditch, and drive a majority of independent voters to support Democrats.

To see why, let’s walk through some scenarios for the governor’s race.

GETTING TO A WIN NUMBER IN THE GOVERNOR’S RACE

Iowa’s last close gubernatorial election happened in 2018, when Republicans had only a slight voter registration advantage, and turnout was high for all partisan affiliations. Governor Kim Reynolds defeated Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell by 667,275 votes to 630,986 (50.3 percent to 47.5 percent), a margin of a little more than 36,000 votes.

Reynolds’ decision not to seek a third term unquestionably improves the chances of a Democrat winning in 2026. It’s typically easier to win an open-seat race than to defeat an incumbent. Moreover, the potential GOP field of candidates for governor looks weak.

With no Republican incumbent running, surely a well-funded Democratic nominee could improve on Hubbell’s performance by more than 36,000 votes, right?

Not so fast. The structure of the Iowa electorate is much worse for Democrats than it was in 2018.

I created the next table using the statewide statistical report for the 2018 general election. (These numbers don’t exactly line up with the certified results showing 1,334,279 ballots cast for governor in 2018. That’s mainly because some Iowans who voted in that midterm died or moved out of state before the Secretary of State’s office pulled the voter list to compile the statistical report in January 2019. Nevertheless, it’s a close approximation.)

These numbers don’t tell us how well Reynolds and Hubbell did among voters of different partisan affiliations. But it’s easy to see there were paths to victory for the Democrat.

Winning through better persuasion

If every Democrat and Republican voted for their own party’s nominee, Reynolds would have been ahead of Hubbell by 492,802 to 458,902 (an advantage of 33,900). Hubbell could have overcome that deficit by winning the independent vote by 55 percent to 45 percent (roughly 202,824 votes to 165,947).

Alternatively, if Hubbell had been able to attract more registered Republicans than the crossover votes Reynolds received from Democrats, he could have won the election with a smaller advantage among independents.

Winning through better turnout

Iowa Democrats and Republicans both had relatively high turnout in 2018. What if Democratic turnout remained high, but GOP turnout had been “normal” for a midterm?

With 67 percent Republican turnout (close to the 2022 level for the GOP), Republicans would have cast about 461,000 ballots in 2018 instead of nearly 493,000. Assuming almost all Republicans were united behind Reynolds, her vote total would have fallen by around 30,000. That would have allowed Hubbell to win the governor’s race with a bare majority of independents (say, 51 percent of the no-party vote).

With low GOP turnout of 65 percent (what we saw in 2006), registered Republicans would have cast about 447,000 ballots in 2018. Hubbell could have won just by staying even with Reynolds among no-party voters.

CURRENT NUMBERS POINT TO LONG ODDS FOR 2026

Now let’s try to piece together a Democratic win in 2026, assuming current voter registration numbers.

We’ll start with the best-case turnout scenario for Democrats that is plausible:

• 68 percent Democratic turnout (slightly higher than 2018, the last Trump midterm).

• 65 percent for Republicans (near the 2006 level). This would assume many low-propensity Trump voters stay home, along with some dedicated MAGA Republicans who don’t like their party’s 2026 nominees for top offices.

• 45 percent for independents (way above average but comparable to what happened in 2018).

As mentioned above, the latest official figures show that as of June 2025, Iowa had 596,535 registered Democrats, 775,132 Republicans, and 721,951 no-party voters.

• 68 percent of 596,535 registered Democrats = 405,643 Democratic midterm voters

• 65 percent of 775,132 registered Republicans = 503,836 Republican midterm voters

• 45 percent of 721,951 no-party voters = 324,878 independent midterm voters

If the Democratic nominee gets 60 percent of the independents (unlikely), that produces a net gain of about 65,000 votes. It’s not nearly enough to win the election unless there are almost no Democratic defections and around 10 percent of Republicans either vote for the Democrat or for a third-party candidate.

Let’s game out a more typical turnout scenario for an Iowa midterm:

• 65 percent of 596,535 registered Democrats = 387,747 Democratic voters

• 68 percent of 775,132 registered Republicans = 527,090 GOP voters

• 38 percent of 721,951 registered independents = 274,341 no-party voters

It’s almost mathematically impossible for a Democrat to win here.

Even if the Democratic nominee captured 60 percent of the independent vote (164,000 votes) and the GOP nominee won the remaining 40 percent (110,000 votes), the net gain of 54,000 votes would not be nearly enough.

A two-to-one advantage for the Democrat among independents (which isn’t realistic) would produce a net gain of about 94,000 votes—still not enough to overcome the GOP lead, unless an unprecedented share of Republicans crossed over to vote for the Democratic candidate or voted third party.

The Cook Political Report moved the Iowa governor’s race from “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” soon after State Auditor Rob Sand launched his campaign in mid-May. Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales puts the race in the “battleground Republican” category, while Sabato’s Crystal Ball views it as a “likely Republican” hold.

Without some improvement in the statewide voter registration numbers, I would rate the race “likely” rather than “lean” Republican.

A BIGGER CHALLENGE IN THE SENATE RACE

Three Iowa Democrats are already running for U.S. Senate: Nathan Sage, J.D. Scholten, and Zach Wahls. One or two more candidates (Jackie Norris and/or Josh Turek) will likely enter the field soon.

Yet the IA-Sen race is even more daunting than the governor’s race. We have recent examples of Democrats winning elections for governor in red states (Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana). That hasn’t happened in a U.S. Senate race in more than a decade.

In addition, the Democratic nominee for Senate will likely face an incumbent next November. Granted, Senator Joni Ernst has trouble on her right flank and poor approval ratings. She underperformed the top of the GOP ticket in her 2020 re-election bid, and she’s now a national laughingstock after telling a town hall audience, “Well, we all are going to die.”

But she’s still a Republican incumbent in a state that voted for Trump in three straight presidential elections. Across the country, ticket-splitting between candidates of different parties for president and Congress has dramatically declined over the past decade.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the IA-Sen race as a “likely Republican” hold. Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales still has the race in the “solid Republican” category.

I wouldn’t say it’s impossible for Ernst to lose. On the other hand, Democrats should be aware of how bad the underlying numbers are. Even with a favorable turnout scenario, majority support from independents, and a Libertarian on the ballot who attracts some MAGA voters, the Democratic nominee probably cannot win without some progress toward narrowing the voter registration gap between now and next November.

You don’t have to take my word for it.

“IT’S GOING TO TAKE WORK”

I ran my numbers by a couple of experienced campaign hands to see whether I was unduly pessimistic about the statewide races. Pete D’Alessandro had a lot of thoughts on the subject. He’s a longtime Democratic activist and political advisor who worked on Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaigns and is now president of Campaign in a Box. (That firm has done some work this year for Sage’s Senate campaign.)

“The one thing that needs to be clear is this is the Democrats’ fault,” D’Alessandro told me in a telephone interview. “They did this to themselves, in every way. They did it by not working hard, and they did it by not appealing to people where they live.”

He perceives that the Iowa Democratic Party has “a lot of showhorses” and not enough “workhorses.” Too often, leaders have focused on developing slogans or bringing in a well-known person to headline a fundraiser, which “doesn’t build anything.”

D’Alessandro sees the situation as “fixable,” and he feels “very positive” about Brian Meyer’s selection as the Iowa House minority leader. “That guy is a workhorse.”

He doesn’t think Democrats can turn things around with “a magical candidate,” and he doesn’t see any issue as a “magic bullet” for 2026. Rather, “It’s going to take a work ethic we haven’t seen.”

Census data suggest that about 300,000 Iowans over age 18 are eligible to vote but not currently registered. D’Alessandro figures that 100,000 of them might support Democrats.

Who are these unregistered people? Some might be college students. Some had their registration canceled when the Secretary of State’s office removed “inactive” voters who didn’t cast a ballot in the 2024 general election. Some may have moved here from another county or state. Some might have a past felony conviction and not realize they can legally vote in Iowa.

D’Alessandro argued that if Iowa went into the midterm election with around 700,000 registered Democrats (instead of the current total, around 596,000), the GOP would still be ahead. But “when you crunch those same numbers,” you would say “there is a path with independents now” for a Democratic candidate for governor or Senate.

D’Alessandro doesn’t think moving to the middle can do the job for Democrats. “There’s not enough Republicans who would say, well, I might as well vote for Republican lite.” The GOP voter registration lead “is too big for that.”

What about the possibility that a sizeable number of MAGA voters might stay home, because they see Ernst as a “RINO” and don’t like the GOP nominee for governor? D’Alessandro noted we haven’t seen that happen in other red states.

“Do the work, find these unregistered voters, do a major voter registration effort, and lower that number, lower that difference,” he said. With a smaller disparity in registrations, “I still have to win independents,” but “now I don’t need 65 [percent]. Maybe I can do it with 55.”

D’Alessandro thinks Democrats “should set a bold goal” of registering 100,000 new voters by November 2026.

Is that doable?

“Well, I don’t know if it was probable to go to the moon when Kennedy said we could go to the moon,” he told me. “My point is, the numbers show me it’s probable. There’s 300,000 people that aren’t registered. At least that’s a big number to go after. And if I go after 100,000 and fall short and I wind up at 86,” Democrats would still put every statewide candidate and some Congressional candidates in a better position to win.

“You put the right people in charge of it, it can happen,” D’Alessandro said. It would take at least a year to execute, though. He would want the voter registration program happening by Labor Day.

“IT’S A VERY TALL ORDER”

I also reached out to longtime Democratic strategist Jessica Vanden Berg. She’s not currently working with any candidates for Iowa’s 2026 statewide or Senate elections.

She told me, “I’m not sure Democrats understand the difficulty of winning statewide right now. There’s a lot of anger and enthusiasm which is justifiable. We are in a crisis as a state and nation. The issue we have 18 months out is that the Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have such a voter registration advantage right now at this moment it’s nearly impossible to overcome.”

Vanden Berg cited this year’s removal of more than 180,000 voters as an example of “voter suppression.”

A message that appeals to the Democratic base, center, and right of center voters would be “a great beginning,” in her view. But Democrats “need to get together and register voters, appeal to the voters who have been kicked off the rolls and those who don’t vote in off year elections. They need an unprecedented turnout and unprecedented level of support of Independents and Republicans.” That’s possible, “but ONLY if Democrats are willing to come together to fund and do the work they have not been able to do in many many years.”

In addition to registering new Democratic voters, Vanden Berg perceives that winning a statewide race will require well-funded third-party candidates to draw some Republican votes away from the GOP nominee.

For reference, third-party candidates for Iowa governor received just under 29,000 votes in 2018 and in 2022 after raising and spending little money. Given how much some MAGA Republicans distrust the establishment faction of the party, it’s not far-fetched to think there could be more defectors in 2026, especially if the GOP nominee for governor didn’t oppose using eminent domain for the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline (like U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, State Senator Mike Bousselot, or Attorney General Bird).

Vanden Berg doesn’t think Democrats can win primarily by running against the ruling party’s overreaches on unpopular policies. It may be true that “these Republicans are too extreme and corrupt,” but past experience suggests that message has not been able to move enough voters for Democrats to win statewide.

She summed up the situation as follows: “Democrats must have a ground game on a level they haven’t had in more than 20 years and a message that resonates with people across the spectrum. It’s a very tall order and right now Democrats don’t seem to understand how difficult it looks right now.”

HOW COULD DEMOCRATS REGISTER 100,000 NEW VOTERS?

I wondered how Iowa Democrats could find and register 100,000 more voters. D’Alessandro floated several ideas. You might reach some people over social media. He envisions a “major effort” at the Iowa State Fair, with volunteers walking around trying to drive people to the Iowa Democratic Party’s booth in the Varied Industries Building.

D’Alessandro would look for precincts that are walkable, and where you can guess by comparing the voter list with the census numbers that there are a lot of unregistered people. He would also focus on precincts with large communities of color, where it’s likely many people you encounter are going to support Democrats.

Once the neighborhoods have been identified, “I’d do it old school.” You’d have canvassers going to the doors. You could stand outside the local grocery store. This wouldn’t just be happening in urban areas like Des Moines or Waterloo; people would be working in counties that seem to have a lot of unregistered eligible voters. He would train volunteers to reach out to their own contacts. D’Alessandro believes that type of “shoe leather” organizing would feed upon itself, as word got out.

It would be a lot of work. But he agrees with my assessment: “The numbers aren’t there. What’s the only way to get the numbers close? It’s not going to happen by a bunch of people converting,” and “You’re not going to win independents by that much.”

I don’t know how much this kind of voter registration program would cost. If the Iowa Democratic Party doesn’t have the resources, Sand’s campaign does. Or perhaps the major donors who funded The Hughes Project a few years ago would take this on.

I believe many volunteers would be eager to help register new voters, if someone developed a plan and gave them direction. Besides people who are active with Democratic groups at the county or neighborhood level, Indivisible Iowa chapters or the new Grassroots Iowa Network could recruit allies to help.

State legislative candidates and their volunteers may want to canvass some households with unregistered voters, as well as households they have found through voter lists.

Local Democrats should have a booth or table at all the major summer festivals across the state. The Polk County Democrats are well-organized on this front. Here’s a picture from CelebrAsian in Des Moines in late May.

D’Alessandro didn’t mention mass mailings, but it’s worth noting that Iowa Republicans have used direct mail to generate new registrations for years.

Here’s an example of a mail piece the Iowa GOP sent out in August 2021. I’m not saying Democrats should copy this wording or layout. But mail may be a viable way to reach some eligible voters, particularly those who used to be registered and may not know they were removed from the rolls this year.

To sum up: I don’t know whether D’Alessandro’s goal is feasible, or whether anyone will fund an ambitious voter registration drive.

But I do know this: while Hubbell could have won in 2018 with solid base turnout and a clear majority among independents, that formula won’t work next year unless Iowa Democrats find a way to shrink the GOP’s voter registration advantage.