One thing that is not mentioned in this article is the importance of setting expectations for volunteers. Making contacts from an inactive voter list or canvassing can be very discouraging if volunteers are not prepared for rejection. They must have faith that no matter how many times they are told "no," the system works and they must keep at it.
One thing wasn’t mentioned that I’m surprised about. The first is registering voters (and volunteers) at every anti-Trump rally. Seems like the lowest hanging fruit
Two other actions I would start now are targeting Nikki Haley voters and outreach, events, and registration in rural areas.
I think it’s important to be reaching out to these Haley Republicans now because while they are probably even more against Trump now then they were in the ‘24 primary, it often takes a while for people to switch parties. (It’s also possible some of these voters are Democrats or independents who became Republicans to influence the primary)
Rural areas seem to have been ignored once “data” started driving election strategy since there are fewer voters overall and a lower percentage of Democrats. But the results is the rural margins keep growing and if you look at for example, white voters in Mississippi, it’s possible that the rural Iowa margins could keep getting worse. Perhaps the Democrats running statewide could schedule joint townhall/ candidate forums to rally rural Democrats and build goodwill and recognition.
I agree, there should be people out registering voters at every anti-Trump rally.
Also agree, it's very possible Iowa Democrats have further to fall in rural areas.
I'm not against reaching out to Republican moderates. That has to be part of a strategy. For Hubbell it could have gone a long way toward winning the election but now it would not get the Democratic nominee there without a lot of other things going right.
Great analysis. Real talk for sure. I work with an extremely hardworking grassroots organization that should be naturally allied with the Democrats but the Democrats ‘older, centrist, entrenched’ base is still scared to death of their natural allies. They seem genuinely afraid of the constituents they should embrace. (Kinda like National Dems sandbagging AOC in favor of older ‘establishment’ Dems in ill health.) unmentioned is the 24/7 carpet bombing of Iowa minds by I❤️radio. If Losing healthcare, private property rights and public education isn’t enough to pull Iowans back from the brink…(shakes head, walks away)….
Thank you for mentioning Sands campaign dollars. I'm so tired of the mail and text messages with no call to action other than donating money. Show me what your money is doing to engage people. Ask me to show up for something (other than a campaign rally). Use your funds to build some civic infrastructure we are severely lacking. We all watched as Dems basically flushed billions of dollars down the toilet last summer. Can we not do that here?
When the Iowa women's basketball team faced No. 1 South Carolina, they didn't look at the stats and conclude they couldn't win. Thank God they weren't coached by someone from the Iowa Democratic Party. The goal of Iowa Democrats for the next election should be take back the house and senate. Win the Governor's and AG races. Don't think it can be done? Then resign and let someone do it who has a vision. Democrats didn't even have a get out the vote effort the last election.
Iowa Democrats don't even run candidates in most races. They wouldn't get beat 80/20 in rural Iowa Counties if they had candidates. They don't even have to win. Just cut the margins. Do that and Rob Sand will be governor. We will have a Democrat for AG. There is way too much emphasis on social media. Democrats have no idea how many Iowans do not use it. They have no clue how many of us no how to avoid it and delete stuff just like we throw junk mail in the garbage. What about billboards? You have to read them stuck in traffic. The so-called pro-life movement has successfully used billboards for more than a decade.
Sadly just cutting the margins in rural areas would not be enough to win statewide elections right now. That would have worked in 2018 but Democrats are too far down at this point.
You don't just cut the margins in rural areas. You combine that with progress in the most populous counties in Iowa. There are plenty of ways for Democrats to win elections in Iowa--especially state wide elections. Rob Sand can be elected Governor and probably will be. Any credible candidate can defeat extremist Bird for AG. Ernst is in trouble and she knows it. We just need the right candidate to run against her. Nunn and Miller-Meeks can be defeated. They barely won last time. The fact is there was no legitimate get out the vote effort by Democrats in Polk County last election and I doubt there will be this cycle either. What I do see is candidates who know how to win and who are smart enough to run their own campaigns. What I also see is a farm economy about ready to tank from the weight of tariffs, Trump supporters about to lose their health care, a state economy that is among the worst in the nation and public schools in trouble because of private vouchers. And hopefully Republicans are dumb enough through "Iowa DOGE" to try to close Iowa county courthouses. That's been tried.
Polk County Dems definitely had a GOTV effort last year. Not sure where you are but there was quite a lot going on, including canvasses that targeted key low-turnout precincts.
I completely agree that IA-01 and IA-03 are winnable. This post is about the statewide races. I wish I shared your confidence about those but it is very hard to see how Democrats get to a win number in any of them.
I live in Polk County. There was no Election Day get out the vote effort even remotely on the scale of prior year door knocking campaigns. On Election Day the Polk County web site didn't even have a location for volunteers to go to. I am 72 years old and have participated in Iowa politics for years. I know what a legitimate Election Day get out the vote effort looks like and have participated in many. There wasn't one.
Real Talk about "Real talk on the long odds facing Iowa..."
Winning elections, in the final analysis, is not about "the math" or about "work ethic", but about
winning ideas/policies on the political battlefield---ideas/policies that have the power to appeal to the individual voter, under existing circumstances. That is lesson No. 1 of "Politics 101!"
Donal Trump won, primarily, because his "America First" economic ideas/policies had the required political appeal-power. The Democratic Party has been losing elections, primarily, because it has not developed any competitive, alternative, economic ideas/policies with winning appeal-power.
To win elections, in 2026, and thereafter, the Democratic Party needs new economic ideas/policies, which can challenge and defeat those of "America First"-----It's as simple as that!
With all humility and respect, to all Democrats---including the Democratic National Committe in Washington, D.C.--- during the past years, I have offered such new economic ideas/policies----"New West" economic ideas/policies--- to challenge/defeat "America First" economic
ideas/policies.
In 2023, in "Bleeding Heartland", my short American Economy paper was published---"The U.S. economy is broken. Time for a New West!" (see Google)
that paper offers/explains the above "New West" economic ideas/policies. In a nutshell, Trump's "America First" economic ideas/policies will fail---BECAUSE THE DOMESTIC, PRIVATE SECTOR, INDUSTRIAL-MANUFACTURING BASE IN THE UNITED STATES IS NO LONGER "AMERICA ECONOMY CENTERED"---BUT "GLOBAL-ECONOMY CENTERED"----
Unlike 1900, the above "BASE" consists no longer of "national corporations"; but, in 2025, that "BASE" consists of all "multinational corporations"! In 2025, we live in new, unprecedented economic times---with the above, new, unprecedented structural change in the American Economy.
SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE U.S. CONSITUTION, IN 1788, THE PRIMARY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTION HAS BEEN---THE EXISTENCE OF A "PUBLIC-PRIVATE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP"--- TO PROMOTE THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THE WELFARE OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE---
IN 2025, THAT "ECONOMIC PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP" NO LONGER EXISTS!!!------------AND THESE NEW, UNPRECEDENTED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE POLITICAL PLATFORM, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE RISE OF DONALD TRUMP AND "AMERICA FIRST" POLITICS!
Additionally, the Democratic Party, to win, needs to offer new social ideas/policies---which address our new economic times and trouble, and which can challenge/defeat the social ideas/policies of "America First". The Democratic Party needs to renew Franklin Roosevelt's "Economic Bill of Rights" and offer the American people new economic rights/freedoms--beginning with health care and higher education rights and freedoms.
To conclude----in the political battlefield of 2026, and going forward, the Democratic Party, to win, needs to offer economic/social ideas and policies which can challenge/defeat the "America First" economic/social ideas policies Trump and the Republican Party. In my view, my above "New West" economic/social ideas policies have the voter appeal-power to enable the Democratic Part to win on the political battlefield of 2026 and the rest of the 21st century!
The math showing 100k new D voters assumes no new R voters for a plus 100k gain. That's not going to happen. You also have to look at the current D attitude of there is no reason to stay in Iowa, so we are leaving. Leaving voters don't vote in Iowa. Sen Ernst is going to have a budget of "whatever she needs". How she has won two elections, I have no idea. Like the seat is R, but as a candidate she just stinks but the D's seem to find someone worse. Early projections, D's pick up two congressional seats and R's sweep statewide. Thanks for doing the math, it usually doesn't lie.
How did Ernst win two elections? She ran the first time in a GOP landslide year when Democratic turnout was terrible. And she rode Trump’s coattails the second time, winning even though she underperformed the top of the ticket.
If Democrats were still at parity on voter registration like we were in 2014 I would feel much more optimistic about that race.
Hate travels well and wins at the ballot box. I have engaged with two people who voted for TRump. One will always be in the Maga camp and the other might be persuaded to vote otherwise, but not before the individual feels the pain of massive debt stripping away hard earned benefits. The analysis Laura is offering along with Pete's data shows to me, that our best chance to even the registered voter playing field is to go after dems who are disengaged or apathetic, go after moderate Republicans, and go hard after the independent registered voters. So, you know, as we are all going to die. Let's band together and go out punching. That would be honorable.
I hope Democrats reading this don't feel like you you do, oh just give up because it can't work. I don't believe that is Laura's intent. It is meant to show there is much work to be done. Change won't happen if we sit back and give up. I don't see the Republican officials doing anything to appeal to Democrats. As long as they keep up the Ernst apology rhetoric the people's attention and vote them out mentality will remain until November 2026. But we must work and VOTE!
Did you not read far enough to get to Pete D’Alessandro’s comments? Right now, the numbers are not there. With a successful voter registration drive—which he sees as possible—you could put Democrats in a better position to win.
Sure this report is widely read and the challenge is taken on and met. Great work.
One thing that is not mentioned in this article is the importance of setting expectations for volunteers. Making contacts from an inactive voter list or canvassing can be very discouraging if volunteers are not prepared for rejection. They must have faith that no matter how many times they are told "no," the system works and they must keep at it.
That's a very important point. Thank you for mentioning it.
Thanks for the straight talk.
One thing wasn’t mentioned that I’m surprised about. The first is registering voters (and volunteers) at every anti-Trump rally. Seems like the lowest hanging fruit
Two other actions I would start now are targeting Nikki Haley voters and outreach, events, and registration in rural areas.
I think it’s important to be reaching out to these Haley Republicans now because while they are probably even more against Trump now then they were in the ‘24 primary, it often takes a while for people to switch parties. (It’s also possible some of these voters are Democrats or independents who became Republicans to influence the primary)
Rural areas seem to have been ignored once “data” started driving election strategy since there are fewer voters overall and a lower percentage of Democrats. But the results is the rural margins keep growing and if you look at for example, white voters in Mississippi, it’s possible that the rural Iowa margins could keep getting worse. Perhaps the Democrats running statewide could schedule joint townhall/ candidate forums to rally rural Democrats and build goodwill and recognition.
I agree, there should be people out registering voters at every anti-Trump rally.
Also agree, it's very possible Iowa Democrats have further to fall in rural areas.
I'm not against reaching out to Republican moderates. That has to be part of a strategy. For Hubbell it could have gone a long way toward winning the election but now it would not get the Democratic nominee there without a lot of other things going right.
Great analysis. Real talk for sure. I work with an extremely hardworking grassroots organization that should be naturally allied with the Democrats but the Democrats ‘older, centrist, entrenched’ base is still scared to death of their natural allies. They seem genuinely afraid of the constituents they should embrace. (Kinda like National Dems sandbagging AOC in favor of older ‘establishment’ Dems in ill health.) unmentioned is the 24/7 carpet bombing of Iowa minds by I❤️radio. If Losing healthcare, private property rights and public education isn’t enough to pull Iowans back from the brink…(shakes head, walks away)….
Thank you for mentioning Sands campaign dollars. I'm so tired of the mail and text messages with no call to action other than donating money. Show me what your money is doing to engage people. Ask me to show up for something (other than a campaign rally). Use your funds to build some civic infrastructure we are severely lacking. We all watched as Dems basically flushed billions of dollars down the toilet last summer. Can we not do that here?
When the Iowa women's basketball team faced No. 1 South Carolina, they didn't look at the stats and conclude they couldn't win. Thank God they weren't coached by someone from the Iowa Democratic Party. The goal of Iowa Democrats for the next election should be take back the house and senate. Win the Governor's and AG races. Don't think it can be done? Then resign and let someone do it who has a vision. Democrats didn't even have a get out the vote effort the last election.
Iowa Democrats don't even run candidates in most races. They wouldn't get beat 80/20 in rural Iowa Counties if they had candidates. They don't even have to win. Just cut the margins. Do that and Rob Sand will be governor. We will have a Democrat for AG. There is way too much emphasis on social media. Democrats have no idea how many Iowans do not use it. They have no clue how many of us no how to avoid it and delete stuff just like we throw junk mail in the garbage. What about billboards? You have to read them stuck in traffic. The so-called pro-life movement has successfully used billboards for more than a decade.
Sadly just cutting the margins in rural areas would not be enough to win statewide elections right now. That would have worked in 2018 but Democrats are too far down at this point.
You don't just cut the margins in rural areas. You combine that with progress in the most populous counties in Iowa. There are plenty of ways for Democrats to win elections in Iowa--especially state wide elections. Rob Sand can be elected Governor and probably will be. Any credible candidate can defeat extremist Bird for AG. Ernst is in trouble and she knows it. We just need the right candidate to run against her. Nunn and Miller-Meeks can be defeated. They barely won last time. The fact is there was no legitimate get out the vote effort by Democrats in Polk County last election and I doubt there will be this cycle either. What I do see is candidates who know how to win and who are smart enough to run their own campaigns. What I also see is a farm economy about ready to tank from the weight of tariffs, Trump supporters about to lose their health care, a state economy that is among the worst in the nation and public schools in trouble because of private vouchers. And hopefully Republicans are dumb enough through "Iowa DOGE" to try to close Iowa county courthouses. That's been tried.
Polk County Dems definitely had a GOTV effort last year. Not sure where you are but there was quite a lot going on, including canvasses that targeted key low-turnout precincts.
I completely agree that IA-01 and IA-03 are winnable. This post is about the statewide races. I wish I shared your confidence about those but it is very hard to see how Democrats get to a win number in any of them.
I live in Polk County. There was no Election Day get out the vote effort even remotely on the scale of prior year door knocking campaigns. On Election Day the Polk County web site didn't even have a location for volunteers to go to. I am 72 years old and have participated in Iowa politics for years. I know what a legitimate Election Day get out the vote effort looks like and have participated in many. There wasn't one.
Real Talk about "Real talk on the long odds facing Iowa..."
Winning elections, in the final analysis, is not about "the math" or about "work ethic", but about
winning ideas/policies on the political battlefield---ideas/policies that have the power to appeal to the individual voter, under existing circumstances. That is lesson No. 1 of "Politics 101!"
Donal Trump won, primarily, because his "America First" economic ideas/policies had the required political appeal-power. The Democratic Party has been losing elections, primarily, because it has not developed any competitive, alternative, economic ideas/policies with winning appeal-power.
To win elections, in 2026, and thereafter, the Democratic Party needs new economic ideas/policies, which can challenge and defeat those of "America First"-----It's as simple as that!
With all humility and respect, to all Democrats---including the Democratic National Committe in Washington, D.C.--- during the past years, I have offered such new economic ideas/policies----"New West" economic ideas/policies--- to challenge/defeat "America First" economic
ideas/policies.
In 2023, in "Bleeding Heartland", my short American Economy paper was published---"The U.S. economy is broken. Time for a New West!" (see Google)
that paper offers/explains the above "New West" economic ideas/policies. In a nutshell, Trump's "America First" economic ideas/policies will fail---BECAUSE THE DOMESTIC, PRIVATE SECTOR, INDUSTRIAL-MANUFACTURING BASE IN THE UNITED STATES IS NO LONGER "AMERICA ECONOMY CENTERED"---BUT "GLOBAL-ECONOMY CENTERED"----
Unlike 1900, the above "BASE" consists no longer of "national corporations"; but, in 2025, that "BASE" consists of all "multinational corporations"! In 2025, we live in new, unprecedented economic times---with the above, new, unprecedented structural change in the American Economy.
SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE U.S. CONSITUTION, IN 1788, THE PRIMARY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTION HAS BEEN---THE EXISTENCE OF A "PUBLIC-PRIVATE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP"--- TO PROMOTE THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THE WELFARE OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE---
IN 2025, THAT "ECONOMIC PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP" NO LONGER EXISTS!!!------------AND THESE NEW, UNPRECEDENTED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE POLITICAL PLATFORM, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE RISE OF DONALD TRUMP AND "AMERICA FIRST" POLITICS!
Additionally, the Democratic Party, to win, needs to offer new social ideas/policies---which address our new economic times and trouble, and which can challenge/defeat the social ideas/policies of "America First". The Democratic Party needs to renew Franklin Roosevelt's "Economic Bill of Rights" and offer the American people new economic rights/freedoms--beginning with health care and higher education rights and freedoms.
To conclude----in the political battlefield of 2026, and going forward, the Democratic Party, to win, needs to offer economic/social ideas and policies which can challenge/defeat the "America First" economic/social ideas policies Trump and the Republican Party. In my view, my above "New West" economic/social ideas policies have the voter appeal-power to enable the Democratic Part to win on the political battlefield of 2026 and the rest of the 21st century!
The math showing 100k new D voters assumes no new R voters for a plus 100k gain. That's not going to happen. You also have to look at the current D attitude of there is no reason to stay in Iowa, so we are leaving. Leaving voters don't vote in Iowa. Sen Ernst is going to have a budget of "whatever she needs". How she has won two elections, I have no idea. Like the seat is R, but as a candidate she just stinks but the D's seem to find someone worse. Early projections, D's pick up two congressional seats and R's sweep statewide. Thanks for doing the math, it usually doesn't lie.
How did Ernst win two elections? She ran the first time in a GOP landslide year when Democratic turnout was terrible. And she rode Trump’s coattails the second time, winning even though she underperformed the top of the ticket.
If Democrats were still at parity on voter registration like we were in 2014 I would feel much more optimistic about that race.
Hate travels well and wins at the ballot box. I have engaged with two people who voted for TRump. One will always be in the Maga camp and the other might be persuaded to vote otherwise, but not before the individual feels the pain of massive debt stripping away hard earned benefits. The analysis Laura is offering along with Pete's data shows to me, that our best chance to even the registered voter playing field is to go after dems who are disengaged or apathetic, go after moderate Republicans, and go hard after the independent registered voters. So, you know, as we are all going to die. Let's band together and go out punching. That would be honorable.
I hope Democrats reading this don't feel like you you do, oh just give up because it can't work. I don't believe that is Laura's intent. It is meant to show there is much work to be done. Change won't happen if we sit back and give up. I don't see the Republican officials doing anything to appeal to Democrats. As long as they keep up the Ernst apology rhetoric the people's attention and vote them out mentality will remain until November 2026. But we must work and VOTE!
Did you not read far enough to get to Pete D’Alessandro’s comments? Right now, the numbers are not there. With a successful voter registration drive—which he sees as possible—you could put Democrats in a better position to win.