Selzer's shocking Iowa Poll; final Iowa election preview
November 4 "Capitol Week" is online
It’s crunch time, and I’m trying to pace myself, because I am scheduled to be on Radio Pacifica early Tuesday morning with Bob Hennelly, on KHOI Tuesday night, and on three different radio shows or podcasts on Wednesday.
and I will cover the early election returns live at 10:00 PM on Tuesday, and we’ll be back for a post-election live show at noon on Wednesday, when KHOI normally rebroadcasts our Monday evening program.The sound file from our November 4 show is at the top of this message. You can also find it on any podcast platform or smart speaker by subscribing to “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The full archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.
What Spencer and I covered in the latest show:
Of course we began with Ann Selzer’s latest Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register. The survey grabbed the attention of politics watchers around the world as it showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent among Iowa’s likely voters. I am skeptical that Harris can win Iowa, but I admire how Selzer “keeps her dirty fingers off the data.” For those who want to learn more about her methodology, listen to her appearances on The Bulwark podcast Sunday and Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck Monday;
Regardless of whether Harris wins Iowa, Selzer may have tapped into some important trends with certain demographic groups, such as independent women or older voters;
Trump dismissed this survey as a “fake poll.” I reviewed some of Selzer’s notable final Iowa Polls since I’ve been covering Iowa politics. There were a couple of misses, but she was mostly on the mark, even when her findings appeared to be an outlier;
After zero public polls of Iowa for the entire month of October, several right-leaning pollsters came out with Iowa findings over the past few days. They found Trump comfortably ahead by 7, 8, or 9 points;
I was intrigued by another finding from the new poll: 57 percent of likely Iowa voters say “it would be ‘wrong’ for a newly inaugurated President Donald Trump to order the Justice Department to drop all pending criminal cases against him”;
If not for Ann Selzer, our top story of the week would have been the lawsuit seeking to block election officials from challenging more than 2,000 registered voters on a flawed list of “self-reported” non-citizens. Although nearly 90 percent of Iowans on that list are in fact naturalized citizens, a federal judge allowed the state to proceed with the last-minute policy. I attended the hearing on Friday and summarized key points from U.S. District Court Judge Stephen Locher’s order;
Many naturalized citizens may not be aware they are on the Secretary of State’s list. It’s a good idea for them to bring proof of citizenship (such as a U.S. passport or naturalization document) when they vote. If they don’t, they may be forced to cast a provisional ballot—but they still have a chance later this week to present proof of citizenship, so their vote can be counted;
Secretary of State Paul Pate, Governor Kim Reynolds, and Attorney General Brenna Bird welcomed the decision as a win for “election integrity.” The League of United Latin American Citizens (one of the plaintiffs) and the ACLU of Iowa (part of the legal team representing them) were disappointed by the order, but emphasized that “anyone who is challenged who can prove they are a citizen with documentation will be able to vote a regular ballot”;
Even though plaintiffs weren’t able to stop the state from forcing naturalized citizens to jump through extra hoops this year, I expect this litigation to continue after the election;
Polls will be open across Iowa from 7:00 am to 8:00 pm on November 5. Remember to bring some form of valid ID, and (if you need to register or update your registration), some proof of address;
I’m tracking the early vote numbers (statewide and by Congressional district) at Bleeding Heartland. As of Monday morning, more than 650,000 Iowans had cast ballots, which is probably close to 40 percent of total turnout. I shared a few other takeaways, and you can check out the early voting totals here;
We touched on late campaign news, themes, and advertisements in each of the four Congressional districts. U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has held events in a bunch of counties, often headlined by prominent Iowa Republicans. Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan has spent most of the last week in Johnson and Scott counties;
The IA-02 race isn’t viewed as competitive, and GOP incumbent Ashley Hinson has run a less active campaign than she did two years ago. She’s only run a couple of television commercials; the second depicted Hinson as a leader bringing people together while others in Washington engage in “a never-ending food fight.” She has recently traveled to support other Republicans in Georgia, Arizona, and Omaha, Nebraska. She has also done some volunteering for Zach Nunn in Iowa’s third district;
Democratic challenger Sarah Corkery has appeared at many events around northeast Iowa and has mocked “#AbsentAshley” on her social media feeds. Reproductive rights remain a central theme for Corkery. She has also accused Hinson of taking credit for policies she opposed, and she said it was “tone deaf” for Hinson to run an ad showing her kids throw food around when tens of thousands of her constituents are food insecure;
Most forecasters view the IA-03 race as a toss-up, and incumbent Zach Nunn is getting a lot of help from other Iowa Republicans. He has done events with Senator Chuck Grassley, Reynolds, and others. Nunn has had positive and negative ads on the air this final week. Outside groups continue to pound Nunn for his anti-abortion stance, and have also portrayed him as a threat to Social Security;
Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam has had lots of support from volunteers and prominent Iowa Democrats. He has at least three TV ads in rotation now: one highlights his service in Afghanistan; one features his father to emphasize the impact of high prescription drug costs, and one bashes GOP policies on education;
IA-04 incumbent Randy Feenstra hasn’t had a busy campaign schedule, but his Democratic opponent Ryan Melton has been all over the district in recent weeks;
Of major Iowa newspapers, only the Cedar Rapids Gazette endorsed candidates for president and Congress (Harris, Bohannan, and Corkery). We talked about why the Des Moines Register and other newspapers like the Quad-City Times and Sioux City Journal didn’t endorse;
I didn’t mention this on the show, but fellow Iowa Writers’ Collaborative member Arnold Garson wrote a nice essay on the history of newspaper endorsements;
Senator Joni Ernst has been on the road lately, campaigning for Republican candidates in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Ernst hopes to move up from the fourth to the third-ranking Senate GOP leadership position after the election;
We spent a few minutes talking about the most common themes I’ve seen in Democratic and Republican advertising for Iowa legislative races. The weirdest claim I’ve seen so far is that State Representative Josh Turek supposedly sided with radical environmentalists to ban gas stoves and lawnmowers. I can usually identify the source of this kind of false attack, but this one was a complete mystery;
We touched on some of the Iowa House races I’m watching most closely. On Tuesday I will publish my comprehensive review of House races at Bleeding Heartland;
We had a little time left to mention the four most competitive Iowa Senate races. You can read more about those here. There’s usually at least one surprising legislative campaign outcome.
Thank you for reading or listening! We’re coming up on our 200th episode of “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” What should we do to celebrate?
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Great re-cap, thanks.
Selzer got it stunningly wrong, as did the majority of the polling ecosphere. Selzer, more than most probably, sealed the public perception that the polls are rigged to oversample and favor Democrats because her poll was highly publicized and her "gold standard" reputation hyped in the final stretch before the election. She was off by 15.7%. Democrats should be furious at her for that. That experience though was emblematic of the gullibility and suicidal tendencies of the Democrats, et al. They will hype a ginned-up media talking point that ultimately undermines their interests and makes them blind to what is right in front of their faces, and demonize and castigate anyone that says the emperor has no clothes. “The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”― George Orwell. That is where the Democrats are at now, telling their members to reject the empirical for hype, myths, shibboleths, stereotypes and slogans. Unless they turn the ship around they are finished.