Senate poll, governor's race, abortion in the 2026 campaigns
June 22 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"
I had the chance to sit down on Tuesday with Joe Trippi, who’s been coming to Iowa periodically since he worked as a field organizer in Jones County 46 years ago! We talked about some of Iowa’s top federal and state races. I’ll share the video once Lincoln Square posts it, probably in the next week or two. For those who missed it, here’s a link to my conversation with Joe in March.
There’s still time to RSVP for my fundraiser in Dubuque on June 27. If you can’t attend but want to chip in—and are not an Iowa elected official, candidate, or paid campaign staffer or consultant on an Iowa campaign—you can make a one-time gift using a credit card, PayPal, Venmo, or personal check (message me for the mailing address), or a recurring donation via credit card or Substack. I’m getting more events on the calendar for July.
On to the main task at hand: the audio from the June 22 edition of “KHOI’s Capitol Week” is at the top of this post. Here’s the written recap, for those who would rather read than listen. If your email provider truncates this message, you can read it without interruption here. What Spencer Dirks and I covered this week:
Turek leads Hinson in new poll
We began with Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, because on Monday morning, Politico was first to publish a poll conducted after the primary election, which found Democrat Josh Turek with a slight lead over Republican Ashley Hinson, 47 percent to 45 percent. A Democratic-aligned firm, Global Strategy Group, conducted the survey and produced this polling memo.
Global Strategy Group found that President Donald Trump’s favorability is underwater (45 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable) among likely Iowa voters, even though the sample included more Republicans than Democrats. By voter registration, 42 percent of respondents were Republicans and 32 percent Democrats. 50 percent said they voted for Trump in 2024, just 41 percent voted for Harris. Among independents surveyed, Trump’s favorability was -28.
Arguably Turek has more room to grow, because only 61 percent of respondents were familiar with him, while 76 percent were familiar with Hinson. According to the polling memo, Turek leads by 62 percent to 36 percent among voters who were familiar with both candidates.
One bright spot for Hinson: Global Strategy Group found a slight lead for Republicans on the generic ballot for the Senate race (47 percent to 45 percent). That suggests she has an opportunity to win over voters who are already GOP-leaning.
Of course she will also want to drive down Turek’s favorables, which is why her campaign and GOP groups began running attack ads immediately after the primary.
National observers agree Iowa’s Senate race is competitive—a big change from 2022, when outside groups took almost no interest in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race until the last few weeks of the campaign. However, our state is considered a second-tier pickup opportunity for Democrats—not a top prospect like Maine or North Carolina.
Americans for Prosperity sends out pro-Hinson mailer
The conservative group Americans for Prosperity Action, funded through the Koch network, has already sent at least one pro-Hinson mailing to Iowa voters. The mailer says Hinson has focused on “common sense solutions instead of partisan politics” and delivered “results that matter.”
Although we haven’t seen recent Republican internal polling on the Senate race, this mailer indicates real concern about Hinson’s popularity. AFP spends a lot of money on Iowa campaigns, but June is quite early for them to be sending election mail.
I don’t know whether the universe was for this mailing was primarily Republican or independent voters. The messaging suggests that Hinson’s allies realize that a partisan GOP brand is a little toxic now. Hinson’s opening TV ad, which we discussed on one of our shows last month, highlighted issues with broad bipartisan support as well, not “red meat” for the Republican base.
Jim Carlin won’t endorse Ashley Hinson
Hinson’s opponent in the Republican primary, Jim Carlin, has told his supporters he “cannot in good conscience ask you to vote for Ashley Hinson.” Carlin went on to say, “She does not share our values and a Republican label is not enough.”
He posted this statement on Facebook on June 8, but it didn’t get much attention. So on June 15 he sent out a news release to some media. You can read the full statement on his campaign website. Excerpts:
A friend once said to me, “Let them lose.” I think it is time we seriously consider doing exactly that.
Because the truth is this: our only real leverage left is our vote. And if those who claim to represent us refuse to listen, refuse to fight for us, and continue leading this country down a path of moral, cultural, economic, and constitutional decline, then we should not be complicit by continuing to reward them with power.
We are not powerless. We still possess one thing the political class cannot take from us unless we willingly surrender it: our votes. And we must learn to use that leverage effectively, collaboratively, and courageously.
We do not owe blind loyalty to any political party. Votes should be earned, not assumed. If those asking for our support continually betray the values they campaign on, then we have every right — and perhaps even a duty — to withhold that support until representation becomes genuine again.
So let me be direct: I cannot in good conscience ask you to vote for Ashley Hinson. She does not share our values and a Republican label is not enough. It has never been enough. And until our party understands that our votes must be earned, not assumed, nothing will change.The establishment counts on voters believing they have nowhere else to go. But when citizens stand together and refuse to reward deception, empty promises, and managed decline, real political leverage begins to return to the people.
Carlin received 53,196 votes (about 25.7 percent) in the June 2 primary. I expect the vast majority of those voters to come home and support Hinson in November.
However, I think Carlin’s statement matters because Libertarian Thomas Laehn has qualified for the November ballot. Even if Laehn doesn’t raise or spend much money, his name on the ballot will give conservatives who don’t like Hinson—but would never vote for a Democrat—a place to go.
I’ve closely followed third-party voting in Iowa elections. Independent or Libertarian candidates receive far more votes than write-ins when there is no option listed aside from Republicans or Democrats.
In Iowa’s 2022 U.S. Senate race, when only Republican Chuck Grassley and Democrat Mike Franken were on the ballot, just 1,815 voters (0.15 percent) wrote in another name. Compare to other recent Senate elections in Iowa:
2014: a Libertarian and three independents were on the ballot, receiving a combined total of around 4 percent of the vote
2016: a Libertarian and two independents combined to get more than 4 percent of the vote
2020: Libertarian Rick Stewart received about 2.2 percent and independent Suzanne Herzog about 0.8 percent of the vote
The pattern suggests to me that Laehn has a real chance to attract disgruntled Carlin voters. He’s been highlighting issues that play to Hinson’s weaknesses with conservatives, such as eminent domain abuse and campaign contributions Hinson has received from Bruce Rastetter (a key proponent of the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline). He’s also against what he calls the illegal and unconstitutional tariffs and the war in Iran. There’s definitely an audience for this positioning on the right.
Finally, I wonder whether some Republican voters will confuse Thomas Laehn with Zach Lahn (both surnames are pronounced like “lane”) and vote for the Libertarian for Senate. Stranger things have happened.
Rob Sand rolls out 100+ Republican endorsers
We spent the next part of the show on news from the governor’s race. On Monday morning, Rob Sand’s released a list of more than 100 registered Republicans who are endorsing the Democrat for governor. These “Rob-publicans” include former Council Bluffs Mayor Matt Walsh, Steven Noah (a former executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa), former State Representative Walt Tomenga of Dallas County, and current Sac County Attorney Ben Smith. You can find the whole list here.
I’ve written extensively about the big Republican voter registration advantage in Iowa. To win in November, Sand will need some significant number of crossover voters.
Sand’s campaign is already running digital ads up featuring some of these Republican endorsers. I expect to see them in TV ads soon.
The campaign also says Sand has “received over 1,800 donations from registered Republican voters across Iowa,” and “has three registered Republican donors to every one his opponent has.” As we reported last month, Lahn has very few campaign contributors from Iowa.
Lahn’s campaign has implied these endorsers aren’t real Republicans, because in recent years they have donated to other Democratic candidates. All that tells me is that these voters have become disillusioned with the GOP in the age of Trump. If my moderate Republican father were alive today, I’m certain he would not support Trump or any GOP politicians who bow and scrape to him.
Sand kicks off another town hall tour
Last week Sand kicked off his 100 town hall tour, starting in his home town of Decorah. The turnout was huge.
The format is the same as last year: the whole group sings the first verse of America the Beautiful, Sand gives some opening remarks, then takes questions. The candidate wrote about last week’s events and some of the topics voters asked about, including education, water quality, and data centers.
Iowa Public Radio’s Gavin McHough covered the Decorah town hall and observed that Sand “steered away from divisive issues. When asked if he would support Iowa municipalities that refuse to cooperate with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Sand said he would prioritize issues ‘where we can get the vast majority of people to agree.’ He steered the conversation toward water quality.”
Sand’s political reform package would require public officials to hold open town halls. I don’t think that’s feasible, but I do expect to hear a lot during the general election about how Republicans are not as accessible to the public.
Lahn addresses controversy over residency
In recent interviews, Zach Lahn addressed concerns about how much time he spends in Kansas. He told Dave Price of Gray Media, “I have a blended family. Been very upfront with this. But we have a blended family. We have a parenting agreement. We maintain that. It will have zero effect on my ability to govern the state. Zero.”
Amanda Rooker of KCCI-TV asked Lahn how he would navigate the blended family situation. He gave her a similar answer: “That’s something between my wife and I to figure out, but it’s something that we’ve already figured out. It won’t affect in any way my ability to govern, or my ability to be present in the state of Iowa.”
Lahn’s campaign hasn’t been specific about how he will divide his time if elected, and how much time he spends in Kansas now. He has said sometimes he picks up his kids and they spend time with him in Iowa, rather than Kansas. But even if he wanted his kids to spend more time here, it’s not always easy to modify a custody agreement.
It’s also not clear how Lahn will travel between Iowa and Kansas if elected. He’s an experienced pilot and often flies himself on his plane now, but I don’t think that would be possible if he were governor.
Lahn clearly wants to put this controversy behind him. He told Rooker the campaign should be about issues and said he was “disheartened” that his opponent and the media are making it about something else. But it is reasonable for Iowans to wonder how the logistics would work.
Lahn says he’s running against the “uniparty”
As we’ve mentioned before, Lahn is running on a change message. Many interviewers have asked him how he would be different from past leaders, given that Republicans have had a trifecta in Iowa for ten years and have controlled the governor’s office for fifteen.
He claims that his campaign hasn’t been focused on “R versus D.” He says: “The issues I'm running on are Iowa issues and both parties are implicated in the issues that we’re facing.” Politicians take money from certain organizations, which is designed to stop them from talking about certain issues. “Both Republicans and Democrats have in many ways failed to account for these issues […] I call it the uniparty […]We have politicians on both sides that have been bought off, that have heavy corporate influence that’s affecting them."
Those systemic problems are the same ones he promised to fix before the primary: keeping more young people in Iowa, helping family farms survive, improving schools, and addressing Iowa’s high cancer rate.
Lahn continues to say things we don’t often hear from Republican politicians, such as criticizing consolidation of industry. “For a very long time, Republicans have taken the stance of, you know, ‘whatever the market says is best.’ But we have to remember the free market is a means, not the end. Our culture, our home […] that is the end... and the free market is a tool we use to get there.”"
Lahn is also now calling for a moratorium on new data centers in Iowa. Before the primary, he said data centers should pay five times higher property taxes than other commercial properties.
Lahn criticizes Sand’s plan for four debates
Earlier this month, Sand proposed four televised debates in October. He wants to do one debate in each of Iowa’s four major media markets: Des Moines, Sioux City, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport.
Last week, Lahn criticized the plan, claiming that Sand “is wanting debates only in Iowa’s four largest cities - nothing in our rural communities.” He went on: “Our cities were built by the outpouring from our rural communities. We will not ignore them when it comes to debates nor when I am governor.”
I doubt that will stick when Sand has held public events in all 99 counties every year since 2019, and wants all elected officials to do town halls in communities of all sizes.
I’ve noticed that Lahn continues to be a “reply guy” on social media, rather than leaving the trolling to his campaign staff or supporters.
Revisiting Derek Wulf and the pesticide immunity bill
Last week we reported that Derek Wulf, the chair of the Iowa House Agriculture Committee who is Zach Lahn’s running mate, had previously supported a bill that would give legal immunity to companies manufacturing agricultural chemicals. The Lahn campaign disputes that reporting.
I was citing a newspaper ad placed by the Modern Ag Alliance, the corporate-funded group created by Bayer to lobby for the pesticide immunity bill. Wulf was among a dozen House Republicans the group thanked for “advocating for this crucial legislation.” The ad ran in the Des Moines Register shortly after Wulf and other legislators attended a Luke Bryan concert sponsored by Bayer (among others).
The campaign’s spokesperson Meg Deneen told me last week, “Let’s not make this anything it’s not, he attended a Luke Bryan concert.” She also noted that the bill never came up for a vote in the House, and said “Wulf has never stated that he supported this legislation.”
My sources indicated that in and around the legislature, Wulf was viewed as an advocate for the bill, so I asked whether he might have expressed that view privately. Ledeen told me, “He’s never said to anyone, publicly or privately, that he supports this legislation. This is because he is unequivocally against it.”
I haven’t been able to find any public statement from Wulf about the pesticide immunity bill, nor have I found any record of him disavowing the Modern Ag Alliance newspaper ad.
Updates on Wulf’s legal entanglements
Last week we reported on some of the legal and financial issues facing Derek Wulf and his family farm, Shallow Creek Land and Livestock, LLC. I wanted to update listeners on new developments in a couple of those cases.
In the Sioux County case, where a default judgment was already entered against Wulf in April for $182,244.70 (plus court costs and interest), plaintiff Four County Pig Placement filed a motion on June 18 for what’s called a debtor exam. They noted that Wulf “has made no effort or attempt to pay the debt” since April.
The judge approved that motion on June 19 and ordered Wulf to appear in court for a Debtor’s examination in July, where “Defendant will be subject to questions under oath as to his personal assets and income.” The judge ordered Wulf to bring the following documents: “last twelve months of paycheck stubs, last twelve months of bank statements, last twelve months of mortgage statements, vehicle titles, tax returns for previous five years, profit and loss statements for any business interests for the past twelve months.”
The other development was in a Polk County case, filed by Heartland Co-op against Shallow Creek Land & Livestock and Derek Wulf. On June 19 a Polk County judge issued an order for default judgment, noting that the defendants had not filed any response to the litigation. Heartland Co-op is seeking to collect $149,214.55 (as of April 20) plus monthly finance fees and court costs.
I asked the Lahn campaign if they had any comments or further details to provide about the refinancing. Deneen told me, “Nothing has changed since last we spoke, so we don’t have anything to add beyond what we’ve already said: Derek is in the middle of a routine refinancing. When it’s done, all creditors will be paid back in full.”
Both sides running attack ads in governor’s race
Some election years, we don’t see many TV ads before August or September. But both sides have been running ads in the governor’s race. Rob Sand’s campaign has a second ad on the air spotlighting “Zach Lahn’s private plane, with nonstop service to Iowa from Wichita, Kansas.” The ad notes that the plane has flown nearly 40 times since October, “because while Lahn wants to be governor of Iowa, he lives and voted in Kansas.” Records show Lahn voted in Kansas in the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections, but voted in Iowa in 2024 and 2025.
Sand is also informing voters about Lahn’s past political advocacy, saying the Republican “hit it rich trying to take health care from working people and bankrupt rural hospitals, all to cut taxes for his billionaire bosses. Fasten those seatbelts, air lane, first class for insiders, a bumpy ride for you.” That refers to Lahn’s work as state director for Americans for Prosperity in Montana, where AFP was opposing Medicaid expansion.
Meanwhile, the first attack ad from Lahn’s campaign accuses Sand of not doing his job. (I misspoke during the show, saying this was an ad from the Republican Governors Association.) With visuals of Sand skateboarding and eating pizza, the ad claims Sand’s office “took no action” when “millions went missing.” This refers to money the court system collected and allocated to the wrong state accounts due to coding errors. Republicans have signaled for years that the controversy would be central to their case against Sand.
Sand’s campaign already has an ad on the air responding to that attack, saying “the auditor’s office did their job,” the judicial branch “took full responsibility,” and “no money went missing.”
The spot features clips from a KCCI fact check saying “the ad leaves out some context” and says “next time Zach Lahn launches an attack from Kansas,” be careful and skeptical. You may recognize my Iowa Writers’ Collaborative colleague Dennis Goldford, a longtime political commentator for KCCI.
Republicans slam Sand’s comments on judicial appointments
Earlier this month, Republicans criticized Sand for saying that if he’s elected, Republicans will have to “take their medicine” before he will agree to change the judicial nominating process.
For decades, the State Judicial Nominating Commission (which sends the governor finalists for Iowa Supreme Court or Iowa Court of Appeals vacancies) had eight gubernatorial appointees, eight elected attorneys, and one Iowa Supreme Court justice (the most senior other than the chief justice).
In 2019, Republicans enacted a law removing the Supreme Court justice and giving the governor a ninth appointee on the commission, in order to give Kim Reynolds more power. Democrats strongly objected to the changes.
Now Sand says he would sign a bill reversing the 2019 changes, but only if the bill takes effect at the end of his first term.
“Because they need to take their medicine on that one, don’t they? You want to have a governor who has more impact on how the judges get appointed in Iowa? Well, we’re going to have that for a little while then, because that’s what you asked for, isn’t it? You can send me a bill and I’ll sign it, but the effective date is going to be after you’ve taken your medicine.”
Republicans accused Sand of trying to settle political scores. Lahn claimed Sand showed “contempt” for Iowans. Sand isn’t backing down. Speaking to reporters on June 11, he said Republicans know what they did was wrong. “And I’m literally out there saying, if elected governor, I will actually take away my own power before I would have a second term. I would say that’s a good thing to do. But I’m a big believer in accountability. If you say you want a thing, then let’s give it to you.”
Abortion as a potential 2026 campaign issue
This week marks four years since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade in its Dobbs decision, and two years since the Iowa Supreme Court cleared the way for this state’s abortion ban to take effect. So we’re going to take a minute to talk about how abortion may play out in this year’s campaigns.
Hundreds of anti-abortion activists gathered at Iowa’s state capitol on Saturday. Many who attended that “March for Life” said Iowa’s current abortion ban doesn’t go far enough. Attorney General Brenna Bird was one of the speakers, and Zach Lahn also attended, along with his wife and their seven children, according to the Des Moines Register.
Bird posted on Facebook that she was “honored” to be at the rally to “celebrate the work we’ve done to protect the unborn and create a culture of life in our state.” Bird added, “We still have work to do, and as your AG, I promise to always be on the frontlines. Because life is worth fighting for!”
Lahn also posted about the event on Facebook, saying, “Every life is precious because every life is created by God. From the moment of conception to natural death, human life carries inherent dignity, purpose, and worth.”
No doubt that’s a sincere belief for Lahn, but it also could be important for him politically. He needs to consolidate support among social conservative voters who favored other candidates in the primary, particularly Adam Steen and Brad Sherman.
Every Iowa Republican running for a state or federal office is anti-abortion, to my knowledge, but most aren’t emphasizing that issue. Lahn has called for banning all abortion from conception. In past campaigns, U.S. Representatives Ashley Hinson, Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and Zach Nunn have denied that they would ban all abortions with no exceptions.
I found it notable that Hinson, Miller-Meeks, Nunn, and Joe Mitchell (the GOP nominee in Iowa’s second Congressional district) did not attend the March for Life.
Democratic candidates for Iowa’s state and federal offices are all pro-choice, but most are talking more about other issues on the campaign trail. During the 2024 campaign, several Democrats running for Congress or the state legislature in Iowa ran TV ads about reproductive rights, and there’s a perception that was a mistake.
Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, argued in a post this week that Democrats “may have over-learned the lesson of 2024” and could still gain traction on the abortion issue. This post quoted two swing voters in Iowa focus groups, who supported Kim Reynolds for governor in the past but are now open to voting for Sand.
I think reproductive rights will be an issue in some of the legislative and Congressional races, but it won’t be at the center of the Democratic campaigns.
Searching for Iowa’s bellwether county
We took a minute to flag a good piece by Bill Bumgarner, which I recently published at Bleeding Heartland. He looked at general election results by county for the past five major Iowa statewide contests: the 2024 presidential election, the 2022 races for governor and Senate, and the 2020 races for president and Senate.
He found the top bellwether (that is, the county that most closely matched the statewide result) was Des Moines County in southeast Iowa, which includes the Burlington area. Honorable mention went to Clinton and Muscatine, which are also Mississippi River counties containing mid-sized cities.
Bill’s research doesn’t prove that Des Moines County will be a bellwether again this year—these patterns can change. But I will be keeping an eye on how the various campaigns seem to be doing in these and other “pivot” counties, which voted for Barack Obama twice and then Donald Trump three times.
Election forecaster moves IA-02 to “lean Republican”
Last Thursday, the Cook Political Report, one of the leading election forecasters, shifted its rating for Iowa’s second Congressional district from “likely Republican” to the more competitive “lean Republican.”
They are late to the party! We’ve been telling listeners to watch this race for months. IA-02 voted for Trump by a roughly 10-point margin in 2024—not much larger than his 8.5-point margin in the first Congressional district. Polling suggests the president is now underwater on favorability here.
In addition, IA-02 is an open seat, due to Hinson’s bid for Senate. The GOP nominee, Joe Mitchell, doesn’t have deep roots in northeast Iowa, while the Democratic candidate, Lindsay James, has a similar background to Abby Finkenauer, who flipped the northeast Iowa Congressional district in 2018.
Libertarian Rick Stewart and independent candidate Dave Bushaw have qualified for the ballot here and could be wild cards.
Zach Nunn highlights family role in first TV ad
Earlier this month, Zach Nunn’s Congressional campaign launched its first TV ad of this year. The 60-second ad purports to show “a day in the life of Zach Nunn,” starting with his morning routine and his role as a husband and a dad, helping get “six kids out the door.” There’s a lighthearted mention of how, as a father of five girls, he occasionally fishes a Barbie out of the toilet.
The ad goes on to show Nunn’s service as an Air Force officer and his effots in Congress, “working across the aisle, fighting to lower costs, taking on fraud and corruption, and delivering results for families. Dedication and hard work: it’s how Zach Nunn lives his life.”
There’s not much policy in the ad, and it reminded me of a biographical spot for a first-time candidate, as opposed to a commercial for a two-term incumbent. Obviously Nunn’s team sees a need to improve his favorability rating, especially with women voters.
June seems early for this kind of ad as well; we used to see incumbents start advertising on TV in August or September. That suggests to me that Nunn is very concerned about his prospects.
Nunn promotes self-published thriller
We didn’t have time to get to this story on last week’s show, and I wanted to flag a remarkable story by Josh Boswell for the U.S. edition of the British newspaper The Daily Mail. Boswell reported on June 11 that Nunn is self-publishing a “thriller about the threat of Chinese AI, espionage, and the future of warfare - despite missing several hearings on the real-life threats of China.”
The novel is called Stratagem. Boswell found Nunn “has promoted the book heavily online - soliciting payments via his personal Venmo account - and leaning heavily on his national security credentials to market the novel.”
However, since Nunn was appointed to the Congressional Select Committee to Counter China, he has missed hearings held in April 2025, July 2025, December 2025, and April of this year. On some of those dates, Nunn was in Washington and cast votes on the House floor, raising questions about why he missed the hearings.
Auditor issues new report about school voucher program
We only had a minute to talk about the report State Auditor Rob Sand released last Wednesday about Iowa’s Education Savings Account program. The report (not an audit) found that nearly 79 percent of students who used the accounts, more commonly known as school vouchers, were “already projected” to attend private schools. You can read the report here. Cami Koons wrote a good story for Iowa Capital Dispatch.
Here’s the official video from Sand’s news conference, which I was unable to attend.
Sand’s framing was a little confusing. The state is paying about $8,000 per student enrolled in private schools. But since four out of five would have attended private schools anyway, he argued that the state is in effect spending $38,000 per student for the 20 percent who otherwise would not be enrolled in a private school.
I think it would be easier for people to understand if framed another way: of the $330 million Iowa will spend on school vouchers this year, nearly $260 million will go to families who could afford to send their kids to private schools without any assistance.
Republican politicians including Governor Reynolds and Senate Majority Leader Mike Klimesh defended the ESA program and accused Sand of using the office of state auditor to boost his campaign for governor.
That’s all for now. Thanks for reading or listening!
Great update.
Info packed. Carlin's comments about political parties and voting ring reality and truth. I agree that Rob Sand used a convoluted anslysis.. The biggest takeaways from his report are the numbers of students using ESAs, growth of private schools, accreditation and blank check.