Sizing up the Iowa primary results; state defends immigration law in court
June 10 "Capitol Week" is online
I spent most of Monday morning at the federal courthouse in Des Moines, watching the hearing on two lawsuits seeking to block Iowa’s new immigration law, Senate File 2340. Hundreds of people gathered outside the building to protest the law, which is causing a lot of fear and anxiety in immigrant communities. I always like hand-made signs, and there were dozens of good ones on hand.
After having to cover two weeks of Iowa political news in last week’s show, it was a relief to do a more “normal” show with Spencer Dirks at 7:00 pm on Monday.
You can listen to the show on any podcast platform by subscribing to “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The full archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.
Here’s the audio from our June 10 program:
Spencer and I spent most of the show talking about the notable results from the June 4 primary elections and my takeaways. You can find unofficial results for all of these races on the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.
Overall impression: a low turnout primary across the board, which wasn’t surprising, given the lack of a race for governor or U.S. Senate;
Turning to specific races, we began the Congressional race in KHOI’s listening area: in the fourth district, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra prevailed over GOP challenger Kevin Virgil by roughly 60 percent to 40 percent. Although he hailed the “clear message” from voters, I found his spin about “strong support” unconvincing. I had more to say about this result at Bleeding Heartland;
Moving from the northwest to the southeast, U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks had an even less impressive victory in the first Congressional district. She defeated little-known first-time candidate David Pautsch by roughly 56 percent to 44 percent. I see this as a warning sign for Miller-Meeks; you can read more about the campaign and the issues Pautsch highlighted at Bleeding Heartland;
I spoke to Pautsch by phone not long before Spencer and I went on the air. He confirmed what he’s told other reporters: he will not vote for Miller-Meeks in November (he sees her representing “the uniparty” rather than Republicans). He hasn’t ruled out running for Congress again—and incidentally, Kevin Virgil is open to that possibility as well;
We spent a couple of minutes talking about prospects for Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan against Miller-Meeks in November. Although the district leans Republican, Bohannan has almost as much money in the bank as the incumbent. If thousands of GOP voters follow Pautsch’s lead, Miller-Meeks could be in real trouble. Sometime this summer I will write an updated version of this post from last September: “What needs to happen for Bohannan to beat Miller-Meeks in IA-01”:
A quick reminder: all four Republicans who represent Iowa in the U.S. House have endorsed Donald Trump for president, but none did so before the Iowa caucuses in January. Miller-Meeks has a particularly troubled relationship with Trump; she was the only Iowa GOP member of Congress he did not endorse in 2022;
In the Democratic primary to represent IA-03, Lanon Baccam received about 84 percent of the vote against Melissa Vine. Although he was favored to win the primary, that was a wider margin of victory than I expected for Baccam;
Most forecasters consider IA-03 a “lean Republican” district, which is probably the right rating. But it’s clearly the best pickup opportunity for Democrats in the Iowa Congressional races—especially if one or more third-party candidates qualify for the ballot. I will write more about this race at Bleeding Heartland soon;
Moving to state legislative primaries, all of the incumbents who faced challengers won their party’s nomination again. But I was surprised by Republican State Representative Mike Sexton’s narrow escape in House district 7 (the margin was about 51-49). More about that campaign in this post;
GOP State Senator Waylon Brown won by about 53-47 in Senate district 30. I profiled that race in more detail here;
House district 51 (covering large areas in Story and Marshall counties) is an open seat, and Brett Barker won the two-way GOP primary convincingly. He will face Ryan Condon in November;
One more notable race involving an incumbent; State Representative Jane Bloomingdale, the only Republican still serving in the legislature who voted against multiple abortion bills, won easily by about a 61-39 margin. I covered that campaign here;
In the open Iowa Senate district 26 (Story and Marshall counties), Kara Warme defeated Gannon Hendrick in the GOP primary. She will face Mike Wolfe in November;
Samantha Fett, best known as a leading figure in Moms for Liberty, defeated former State Representative Garrett Gobble in the GOP primary for House district 22 in Warren County. Gobble moved from Ankeny to Norwalk in search of safe Republican territory, but it didn’t work out. Fett will face Rory Taylor in November;
Near Gobble’s old turf, Ryan Weldon won the GOP primary in House district 41, covering part of Ankeny. He will face first-term State Representative Molly Buck in November;
There weren’t nearly as many Democratic primaries for legislative seats this year, but we briefly touched on a few races. Rob Johnson edged out Samy El-Baroudi in House district 34, one of the bluest districts in the state, covering part of Des Moines;
In House district 44, covering most of Urbandale, Larry McBurney defeated Jason Menke for the Democratic nomination. Republicans aren’t currently fielding a candidate here, but that could change over the summer. Jake Heard is running as a Libertarian;
State Senator Claire Celsi dispatched her Democratic challenger by about an 80-20 margin in Senate district 16, covering part of the western suburbs of Des Moines;
Finally, Tommy Hexter had a big win in the three-way Democratic primary for House district 53, covering Tama and Poweshiek counties. He’ll face GOP State Representative Dean Fisher in November;
Although it wasn’t a competitive primary, I wanted to highlight Aime Wichtendahl’s race in House district 80, covering part of Cedar Rapids and the suburbs of Robins and Hiawatha. She has a good chance of becoming Iowa’s first transgender legislator; you can find my full profile here;
We spent a few minutes talking about that federal court hearing I mentioned at the top. U.S. District Court Judge Stephen Locher heard arguments on two lawsuits challenging Iowa’s Senate File 2340, which creates a new state crime of “illegal re-entry.” Judge Locher didn’t consolidate the cases, but he did consolidate the hearing, because the federal government and private plaintiffs are seeking the same remedy (declare this law unconstitutional);
Although Judge Locher asked tough (and very specific) questions of both plaintiffs and defendants, I had the impression that at least part of Senate File 2340 will be found to violate the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The judge said he will issue a decision well ahead of July 1, when the law is scheduled to go into effect. He may render a final judgment on the law, rather than a preliminary injunction, to speed up the inevitable appeal to the Eighth Circuit;
A big of news from Congress: U.S. Senate Democrats tried to advance a bill on access to contraception last week. Iowa’s Senators Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley joined the filibuster that blocked debate. Ernst is promoting her own (much more limited) contraception bill, which would apply only to hormonal birth control pills, and only to women age 18 and up. The Democratic proposal covers a wide range of birth control methods and would guarantee access to teenagers as well as adults.
Thanks for reading or listening! Next week Spencer and I will be talking about news related to Iowa’s law banning school library books. We should have a few state government or election-related stories in the mix as well.
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