Trump in Iowa, GOP gubernatorial debate, 4Q fundraising
Feb. 2 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"
I had a long Tuesday at the state capitol, so this recap is reaching you later than usual.
The audio file from the Groundhog Day edition of “KHOI’s Capitol Week” is at the top of this message; you can also find it and subscribe through any podcast platform. Here’s the written recap, for those who would rather read than listen. If your email provider truncates this message, you can read it without interruption here.
There was so much news last week, we had to hold a bunch of legislative stories until our February 9 show. We also didn’t have time to discuss my latest post about Senator Chuck Grassley, which you can read here, or Friday morning’s court hearing in Donald Trump’s lawsuit against the Des Moines Register and Ann Selzer. I did spend a few minutes summarizing the Trump/Selzer hearing during the January 31 edition of the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. The judge is expected to rule on how the case will proceed in the next couple of weeks.
Here’s what Spencer Dirks and I discussed on Monday night:
Another federal government shutdown
Funding for many federal agencies lapsed on January 31, but we didn’t spend a lot of time on this partial government shutdown, since it seemed likely to end soon.
In mid-January, the U.S. House approved the six remaining funding bills for the 2026 federal fiscal year and left town, “jamming” the Senate. Their expectation was that the Senate would approve the package last week to avoid another shutdown. But Democrats held out on the Department of Homeland Security budget, demanding reforms that would rein in Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Patrol.
To my surprise, Senate leaders agreed on Friday to pass five of the six bills–stripping out the Homeland Security funding. Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst were part of the 71-29 majority that approved the five funding bills, but the House was out of session. So the government was shut down for the weekend and Monday, but the House approved the funding package today (February 3), and President Donald Trump has already signed it.
I have no idea how long it will take to negotiate a deal on Homeland Security funding. ICE has plenty of money to keep operating for a long time, thanks to last summer’s budget reconciliation bill. But if Democrats hold out, eventually there could be issues with other agencies under the Homeland Security umbrella, like the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Year-round E15 left out of funding bill
We’ll talk more about the federal budget next week, including earmarks for Iowa in the bills Trump just signed. We did flag one provision that didn’t make it into the funding package: permanent year-round approval for the higher ethanol blend known as E15.
Current federal law doesn’t allow E15 sales during the summer months, because it can cause higher smog levels. For the past six years, the federal government has issued waivers allowing retailers to sell E15 year-round. But corn growers and ethanol producers want the law changed, because they argue retailers won’t invest in pumps for E15 without that regulatory certainty.
Several members of the Iowa delegation have been complaining about E15 getting left on the cutting room floor. But one thing they aren’t telling you is that this policy was part of an omnibus budget bill in December 2024. President-elect Donald Trump and Elon Musk blew up that deal, and when it was renegotiated, E15 was no longer in the legislation. So it’s Trump’s fault they are still fighting this battle.
Trump headlines rally in Clive
At his rally in Clive last Tuesday, Trump promised to support year-round E15 and said House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune were “working on it.” Congress doesn’t pass many stand-alone bills, so it would have been easier to tuck this policy into the must-pass spending bill.
Trump also claimed (incorrectly) that bailout payments that will be going out this month to farmers affected by tariffs will be paid for by those same tariffs. He is really stuck on the idea that tariffs are bringing in a ton of extra money from foreign county, which is not how it works.
As for the $12 billion bailout for farmers affected by tariffs, all of the reporting I’ve seen has indicated that it’s not nearly enough to compensate for farmers’ losses. Also, the agriculture sector encompasses much more than farmers. Lots of employers and manufacturers are hurt by a weak farm economy, but won’t get the bailout.
Spencer and I were both struck by how effusively Trump praised John Deere during his speech. (You can find a transcript here under a video from the event.) He repeatedly claimed John Deere is expanding everywhere and building a new excavator factory in North Carolina. That’s a touchy subject for Iowans, given the thousands of layoffs at John Deere facilities in our state over the past several years.
During his speech (which went on for more than an hour) Trump touched on some of his “greatest hits,” like lying about the supposedly “rigged” 2020 election and calling former State Senator Brad Zaun “the Marlboro Man.” He is frustrated about being blamed for inflation and essentials being less affordable. He and Republicans are = worried about the November 2026 elections as well.
Three Iowans in Congress speak at rally—but not Feenstra
I saw a lot of chatter last week about how Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), and Zach Nunn (IA-03) all spoke to the crowd in Clive before Trump arrived. But Randy Feenstra (IA-04) wasn’t given a speaking slot.
I believe Trump’s people didn’t want to create the impression the president was endorsing Feenstra for governor. A large MAGA contingent does not want Trump to endorse in that primary. But MAGA Republicans are not united behind anyone else.
Feenstra flew to Iowa on Air Force One and stuck close to Trump at a pre-rally event at the Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale.
Trump and the members of Congress who did speak at the rally all emphasized that they need a strong GOP turnout in November. Turning out those newer Republican voters, who were activated by Trump, will be critical for Nunn and Miller-Meeks, who are in toss-up U.S. House races. It’s a priority for Hinson as well, though she is favored in the U.S. Senate race. Republicans don’t want a repeat of 2018, when Democrats won three of Iowa’s four U.S. House seats.
Other takeaways from Trump’s visit
Will Trump come back to Iowa before November? I would guess so. He did a big rally for Kim Reynolds in northwest Iowa shortly before the 2018 election, when polls showed her running neck and neck with Fred Hubbell.
I don’t know whether Trump will come to the Des Moines metro area again this year, though. Frankly I don’t think it’s helpful for Nunn to be campaigning with the president, who is unpopular in Polk County. (Trump’s approval is almost certainly underwater in the third Congressional district as a whole.)
Perhaps we’ll see Trump in northeast Iowa this fall. It didn’t happen at the rally, but on Tuesday evening, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was supporting “MAGA Patriot Joe Mitchell” in Iowa’s second district. (As we mentioned on last week’s show, State Representative Shannon Lundgren just dropped out of the IA-02 race, leaving Mitchell as the front-runner for the GOP primary.) Hinson will also want high turnout in the House district she’s vacating.
Dave Price, Kathie Obradovich, and I discussed Trump’s latest Iowa visit from some other angles on the Iowa Down Ballot podcast.
Final note: I was struck by the large number of protesters (at least 2,000 people) who spent hours outside the Clive venue on an extremely cold day. Many thanks to Iris Frasher for allowing me to publish some of her photos from the protest.
Four GOP candidates for governor debate—but not Feenstra
Last Tuesday evening, Moms for Liberty organized a debate for Republicans running for governor. Four of the five contenders showed up, and you won’t have trouble guessing who was missing.
Of course, Feenstra had been in the area for Trump’s rally just a few hours before. One of the organizers, State Representative Samantha Fett, commented on the extra podium on stage, for someone who was invited but didn’t attend.
According to Althea Cole, the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s conservative columnist, one Republican activist told her Feenstra said he couldn’t be at the debate because he had to fly back to Washington on Air Force One. Why on earth? The House of Representatives was not in session at all last week. There was no reason for Feenstra to leave Iowa.
Here’s a video of the debate, for those who would like to watch. Brooklyn Draisey covered the event for Iowa Capital Dispatch.
Moms for Liberty asked for “no personal attacks,” and the candidates (Eddie Andrews, Brad Sherman, Zach Lahn, and Adam Steen) mostly stuck to that, but they did aim some zingers at Feenstra.
This was the first time I had seen Lahn speak for any significant length of time. I was struck by his unorthodox comments on several topics. For instance, when talking about Iowa’s cancer problem, he said, “We have to confront the biggest issue: we are being lied to by big agricultural companies” trying to protect their bottom lines. In his view, those companies know their products are harmful. That’s not rhetoric you hear often from a Republican.
The four candidates outlined somewhat different approaches to property taxes, but otherwise agreed on most issues that came up during the debate. For instance, they all believe life begins at conception, and would therefore support a total abortion ban. Equally disturbing, all supported banning mRNA vaccines. (Republicans seem to think mRNA vaccines were only used during the COVID-19 pandemic, but they are also among the most promising approaches for treating cancer.)
Where things stand in the GOP race for governor
At some point I need to write a deeper dive about the Republican gubernatorial primary, which is one of the weirdest things I’ve seen in Iowa politics.
Feenstra still seems heavily favored to me, given his lead in fundraising and name recognition. He ended 2025 with about $3.2 million cash on hand.
Lahn has loaned his campaign $2 million and had about $2.1 million cash on hand, as of December 31. I question whether there’s enough time for him to make himself known to GOP voters before the June primary. He has received very few donations from Iowa residents.
At this time, Feenstra and Lahn are the only candidates with the capacity to run a strong statewide campaign before the June primary. That matters. Steen raised about a half-million dollars last year but had only about $336,000 in the bank at year-end.
I don’t see how Andrews can run any kind of statewide campaign. He raised around $40,000 last year—I’ve seen better fundraising from many state legislative candidates. His campaign spent around $35,000 and closed out the year with only around $5,000 cash on hand.
Sherman raised around $200,000 last year, which was more than I was expecting. But that’s not enough for a paid media strategy before a statewide primary. And he only had around $85,000 on hand as of December 31.
By the way, Sherman’s campaign announced last Thursday that he was the first GOP candidate for governor to attend events in all 99 counties.
Poll tests messages about Democrats running for governor
We spent a couple of minutes talking about the poll I covered last week, which is targeting Iowa Democrats to test messages about State Auditor Rob Sand and Julie Stauch. For more details, check out that piece:
We don’t know who paid for this poll, but it looks like it came from either Stauch’s campaign or someone considering spending money to encourage Democrats to vote for Stauch.
Sand is the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination. Not only did his campaign have more than $13 million in the bank as of December 31, they claim that more than 7,000 people have signed up to volunteer. Sand’s campaign just opened a field office in Des Moines last week.
That said, there certainly are a lot of Democrats who aren’t wild about how Sand runs away from his party label. I don’t know how many are open to an alternative, but some of the messages on the poll questionnaire could encourage voters to support Stauch in the primary.
John Norwood running for state treasurer
It’s hardly an episode of “KHOI’s Capitol Week” without at least one new candidate to cover, and this week was no exception. John Norwood announced on Monday that he’s running for state treasurer. Norwood is an adviser to small businesses and was the Democratic nominee for secretary of agriculture in 2022. He was previously elected to the Polk County Soil and Water Commission and has traveled to all 99 Iowa counties, through his work and his past campaigns.
The Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller interviewed Norwood and wrote about his campaign launch:
In an interview, he said his three priorities as treasurer would be protecting the Iowa Public Employees’ Retirement System (IPERS), providing independent oversight of Iowa’s finances and expanding retirement options for Iowans.
Norwood said IPERS is key to recruiting and retaining Iowa’s public employees, including teachers, firefighters and others.
“I’m going to protect IPERS,” he said. “You know, there’s been talk, Republican talk about privatizing IPERS or privatizing part of IPERS or let’s give current or future employees other choices. We don’t want to undermine the integrity of IPERS.”
The state treasurer doesn’t set state policy on IPERS or the budget, but Norwood would be outspoken about those issues: “I think Iowans deserve a fiduciary who’s going to tell them the facts.”
Kim Reynolds endorses Ashley Hinson
Governor Kim Reynolds has said she won’t endorse in the GOP primary for governor, but last Thursday, she backed Hinson for Senate. Honestly, I thought she had done that already, because so many big names are already behind Hinson.
The endorsement was no surprise, but Reynolds did send a message by holding the event in Sioux City, which is former State Senator Jim Carlin’s home turf. Carlin is the MAGA insurgent running against the establishment’s choice in the Senate primary.
What happens at off-year precinct caucuses
One drawback to having a live radio show at 7:00 pm on Mondays is that I’m no longer able to attend my precinct caucus. As we recorded the show, Democrats and Republicans gathered in all 99 counties. (The Iowa legislature conducted no business on February 2 to allow state lawmakers to attend their own caucuses.)
What happens at an Iowa caucus when there’s no presidential election? It’s mostly party business. Electing precinct delegates to the county central committee can become important if there is a vacancy to fill. After State Senator Claire Celsi passed away, precinct delegates across Iowa Senate district 16 chose Renee Hardman among the five Democrats seeking the nomination.
Choosing county convention delegates is probably the most important function of the precinct caucuses. Those attending county conventions will elect district and state convention delegates this spring.
Why does it matter? If there’s a primary where no one receives at least 35 percent of the vote, a convention will decide the nomination. That’s how Steve King became the GOP nominee in what was then Iowa’s fifth Congressional district in 2002, and how David Young became the nominee in the third district in 2014.
If no one gets 35 percent in this year’s GOP primary for governor, the state convention in June will select the nominee—and that could be a tough sell for Randy Feenstra.
I forgot to mention on the show that off-year caucuses can also be helpful to candidates who need signatures from multiple counties on their nominating petitions.
If you attended your precinct caucus on Monday night, tell us about anything noteworthy that happened there.
The FAMiLY Leader wants to influence lieutenant governor pick
We’ve mentioned on past shows that some of the Republican candidates for governor encouraged their supporters to attend the caucuses. Last week, the social conservative organization The FAMiLY Leader sent out an email blast urging followers to try to become county delegates. What are they up to? Quoting from their email:
Most of the time, the gubernatorial nominee announces who they want to be their running mate, and the delegates formally nominate that person without much fanfare. However, that is not always been the case. The most recent example of this occurred in Indiana during the recent election. With 52% of the vote, a pastor became the Lieutenant Governor nominee, even though the Gubernatorial nominee and President Trump wanted someone else!
How would you like to be a part of that process in Iowa this year? You can begin that journey next Tuesday by attending your caucus and becoming a delegate to the county convention.
Here’s some Iowa political trivia: there was an effort at the 2010 GOP convention to choose Bob Vander Plaats (who now heads The FAMiLY Leader) for lieutenant governor. The convention delegates went with Terry Branstad’s pick, Kim Reynolds. And guess who formally nominated Reynolds for lieutenant governor at that convention? Then U.S. Representative Steve King.
4Q fundraising for Iowa’s U.S. Senate candidates
January 31 was the deadline for U.S. House and Senate candidates to report on their fundraising and spending for the fourth quarter of 2025. We spent several minutes talking about the highlights, but campaign finance stories aren’t ideal for the radio, and I didn’t want to throw a lot of numbers at listeners.
You can read some summaries of the latest fundraising totals at the Des Moines Register (Senate and House candidates) or the Cedar Rapids Gazette. I’m going to link to each candidate’s Federal Election Commission filing, so you can dig deeper into the numbers.
Big picture on the Democratic race for Senate: there was a reversal of fortune. In the third quarter, Josh Turek raised the most money and was the only Democrat who raised more than his campaign spent. Zach Wahls also raised a lot of money in the second and third quarters, but in the third quarter his campaign spent more than it brought in.
But from October through December, Wahls raised more than Turek (around $742,000 to $678,000), and his campaign spent far less. Turek’s campaign actually spent around a quarter of a million more than it raised. That’s usually not a good sign. The upshot is that Wahls has raised the most money overall and also has the most cash on hand now (around $733,000 to just under $400,000 for Turek as of December 31).
Nathan Sage has a big problem. He raised the most money in the second quarter because for about six weeks he was the only declared Democratic candidate. During the third quarter, he raised a lot less and spent more than he raised. That trend continued in the fourth quarter, when Sage raised nearly $230,000 and spent close to $412,000. At year end, his campaign had about $86,000 cash on hand. It will be extremely difficult to run a statewide effort before the primary.
On the Republican side, Ashley Hinson has a commanding money lead, with more than $5 million in her campaign account. She raised nearly $1.7 million of that in the fourth quarter, roughly half from individuals and the rest from political action committees and transfers from other Republican committees. (It’s nice to be an incumbent and the establishment favorite.)
Hinson’s primary opponent, Jim Carlin, missed the deadline and hasn’t filed a year-end report yet. As of September 30, his campaign had less than $2,000 cash on hand.
Libertarian Thomas Laehn raised nearly $10,000 and has about $5,500 cash on hand.
FEC reports for Senate candidates:
no report online for Jim Carlin (R)
4Q fundraising in the first Congressional district
Big picture: Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan out-raised GOP incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Bohannan raised more than $1.1 million in the fourth quarter, mostly from individual donors. Miller-Meeks raised almost the same amount, but only about 40 percent of her fundraising came from individuals, and the rest from PACs or transfers from other Republican committees.
Miller-Meeks still has more cash on hand (around $3.35 million), but Bohannan has about $2.3 million in the bank, which is a very solid amount. Outside groups will likely spend more on this race than the candidates before November.
The other candidates are far behind. Democrat Travis Terrell didn’t file a year-end report; at the end of the third quarter, his campaign had less than $7,000 cash on hand.
Republican David Pautsch loaned his campaign another $16,500 in the fourth quarter and raised a little more than $2,000 from other donors. He closed out the year with a little more than $11,500 cash on hand. Worth remembering, though: Pautsch spent very little during the 2024 primary campaign but managed to receive about 44 percent of the vote against Miller-Meeks.
FEC filings:
no report from Travis Terrell (D)
Taylor Wettach (D) is now running for state auditor, not Congress
4Q fundraising in the second Congressional district
Big picture: It’s no surprise GOP State Representative Shannon Lundgren dropped out last week. She only raised around $83,000, which isn’t enough when you are facing a well-funded primary opponent. At year end, her campaign only had about $53,000 cash on hand.
Former State Representative Joe Mitchell raised nearly $300,000, and some campaign committees of senior U.S. House Republicans donated. As of December 31, his campaign had around $576,000 cash on hand, which includes a $100,000 loan he made to his campaign in September.
State Senator Charlie McClintock raised only around $800 during the fourth quarter and had less than $14,000 cash on hand at year-end.
On the Democratic side, State Representative Lindsay James raised the most money and had the most cash on hand (around $300,000). Clint Twedt-Ball has also raised six figures and has around $153,000 on hand. The two other Democrats, Kathy Dolter and Guy Morgan, are far behind in the money race, as is Dave Bushaw, an independent candidate.
FEC filings:
4Q fundraising in the third Congressional district
Big picture: Incumbent Zach Nunn raised the most money and has the most cash on hand, partly because he’s an incumbent, and partly because he has no primary opponent.
Nunn is a classic example of the advantages of incumbency. He reported raising around $535,000 total, but only around $116,000 came from individual donors. The rest came from PACs and political committees (around $177,000) and transfers from other fundraising committees ($237,000).
Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott would have out-raised Nunn, if not for those transfers. She raised just under $430,000 in the fourth quarter, with $390,000 coming from individual donors. She ended the year with nearly $847,000 in the bank.
The FEC filings show why State Representative Jennifer Konfrst ended her campaign last week. She raised far less than Trone Garriott, spent about 90 percent of what she raised in the fourth quarter, and ended the year with only about a quarter of Trone Garriott’s cash on hand.
I haven’t seen a campaign finance disclosure from Xavier Carrigan, who is also seeking the Democratic nomination.
FEC filings:
no report yet from Xavier Carrigan (D)
4Q fundraising in the fourth Congressional district
Big picture: Chris McGowan (who has the most establishment endorsements in this field) still leads the money race for Republicans, with Ryan Rhodes not far behind and State Representative Matt Windschitl a distant third.
I don’t recall seeing this before: Windschitl’s campaign reported zero dollars raised during the fourth quarter. You would think someone would have donated something. I don’t know whether that was a filing error or he really raised no money. Either way, I question whether he will pursue this race. His campaign had less than $47,000 in the bank as of December 31.
On the Democratic side, no candidate has raised a lot of money, but Dave Dawson has far more capacity to pay for direct mail or digital advertising before the June primary.
FEC filings:
Stephanie Steiner (D) did not file a report
News from the legislature
We only had a couple of minutes to talk about what’s happening in the Iowa House and Senate, so we brought listeners up to date on two of the biggest issues of the session: property taxes and eminent domain.
On Thursday, House Republicans advanced the governor’s property tax bill and the House GOP proposal in separate subcommittees. Democrats voted against both bills, and representatives of local governments expressed concerns about the provisions, especially the 2 percent revenue growth cap.
The Senate GOP property tax proposal hasn’t had a subcommittee yet.
I don’t know whether the House Ways and Means Committee will move both bills or adopt some compromise amendment before moving one bill to the floor. Tax bills are not subject to funnel deadlines, so there’s no huge urgency to get a property tax plan out of committee. On the other hand, the House and the governor may want to get on the same page sooner rather than later.
In an unusual chain of events, Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Klimesh’s proposed bill on eminent domain and hazardous liquid pipelines advanced twice last week.
Last Tuesday, Klimesh held an early morning subcommittee on the House bill banning eminent domain for CO2 pipelines. It was in the smallest room for such meetings, and he pulled a “bait and switch” by announcing he would amend the House bill to conform with his own proposal. The Senate Commerce Committee approved the plan to amend the House bill, making the Klimesh bill eligible for floor debate.
That didn’t go over well with landowners. So on Thursday, there was another Senate subcommittee on the Klimesh bill, with lots of testimony on both sides. I was there and posted the video on my YouTube channel.
It’s still not clear whether Klimesh has 26 votes to get his bill out of the full Senate. I asked State Representative Steven Holt about it last Wednesday, and I got the impression House Republicans aren’t ready to accept anything resembling the Klimesh plan.
That’s all for now. We’ll be back next week with much more news from the statehouse.
Thank you for the broadcast, Miss Belin I believe we have two weeks until the vote for ice. I hope the democrats hold the line and it fails. DHS has enough money as far as I am concerned.
The democrats missed an opportunity to ask the Reynolds about the failure to capture any business from John Deere with the respect to acquiring a new factory in Iowa instead of North Carolina. Their always talking about how their creating jobs. Did Reynolds even try? Then on top of that John Deere CEO May showed up for the Trump at the rally in Clive. Pretty arrogant considering the support Iowa has given John Deere over the years.