Two more candidates for governor; news about Iowa's Senate race

June 9 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

Photo of Eddie Andrews at his June 4 event is by Greg Hauenstein. Find more of his work at Moonshot Images and GregHauenstein.com

It’s a busy month for Iowa candidates, and for me! Here are a few of my upcoming public appearances:

On Saturday, June 14, I’ll be discussing advocacy at the statehouse on a panel at the Iowa Secular Summit. The event starts at 10 AM at the Stine Barn, 400 Turnberry Drive, West Des Moines; my panel will be in the afternoon. Click here for more information.

On Wednesday, June 18, Women for a Stronger America has invited me to speak and take questions about Iowa politics, starting at 9:30 AM at Temple B’nai Jeshurun (51st and Grand in Des Moines).

On Saturday, June 21, I’ll be at the Grassroots Iowa Network Leadership Retreat & Boot Camp at the Monticello High School (850 East Oak Street). The event runs from 9:30 AM to 3:30 PM; click here to RSVP. My session is scheduled to start at 10.

I have an event in Sioux City scheduled for Thursday, June 26. Contact me for more details about the place and time. This is a fundraiser to support my work, but no donations are required to attend. All are welcome to come hear me speak about my reporting journey and ask me anything about Iowa politics.

Spencer Dirks

and I had plenty of 2026 campaign news to discuss on Monday night’s edition of “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The audio file is at the top of this post. The full show archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website. Here’s your written recap for the June 9 show.

Eddie Andrews launches campaign for governor

We mentioned last week that Republican State Representative Eddie Andrews had decided to run for governor. I attended his launch event in front of the state capitol on Wednesday. On my YouTube channel, I posted videos of his prepared remarks and his comments to reporters afterwards.

Andrews talked about some of the issued he has worked on in the legislature: mental health care, autism services, private property rights, and “medical freedom” (a euphemism for the anti-vaccine agenda). As governor, Andrews wants to work on all forms of education, including homeschooling, as well as property taxes and landowner rights.

Asked to introduce himself to Iowans outside the Des Moines metro, Andrews said, “I’m all about helping people. Full stop.”

He and other speakers portrayed him as an electable candidate. To me this seemed like a contrast to former State Representative Brad Sherman, who is running for governor and championed some of the same issues. Sherman represented a heavily Republican rural area, whereas Andrews represents a swing district. He was the only Republican to win an Iowa legislative race in 2024 in a district that voted for Kamala Harris, and the only GOP lawmaker to win a 2020 race in a district that voted for Joe Biden.

He criticized money in politics, which we don’t often hear from Republicans. He told reporters, “It should be we the people, not we with money.”

He surprised the reporters by mentioning that he and a contact started “praying” about running for governor before Kim Reynolds announced in April that she wouldn’t seek a third term.

Andrews mentioned more than once that he and his wife (Betty Andrews, the longtime president of the Iowa/Nebraska NAACP) disagree politically. I don’t know he got this statistic, but Andrews claimed that 35 percent of couples are members of different parties. He described his wife as a “lovely” woman and “very passionate,” saying I think a lot of people look to us as an example of how love can conquer differences sometimes.”

I see two big challenges for him in a Republican primary. He’s not a big fundraiser and alluded to the fact that he won’t raise as much money as some of the other candidates. He claimed some group has pledged to spend “seven figures” in support of his campaign, but I don’t know who that would be. The second issue is that he’s not well known outside the Des Moines metro area. That could be a challenge, because so many Republican voters are in smaller towns and rural areas.

Andrews admitted that a political consultant probably wouldn’t advise him to get into the race but said, “We don’t see obstacles. We see opportunities.”

With Andrews seeking higher office, Democrats feel very good about their chances to pick up that Iowa House seat based in the suburb of Johnston.

The Republican field for governor is far from set. Sherman and Andrews are officially running, U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-04) is almost certainly running, State Senator Mike Bousselot is “exploring,” and we don’t know what is going on with Attorney General Brenna Bird. She seems to be holding out for Donald Trump’s endorsement.

Julie Stauch joins Democratic field for governor

You’ll never find a first-time candidate who knows more about running for office than Julie Stauch, who launched her campaign for governor last Tuesday. She was a field staffer for Michael Dukakis in Iowa in 1998 and has worked on or advised many campaigns since then. More recently she was political director for Pete Buttigieg’s Iowa caucus campaign, managed Mike Franken’s U.S. Senate campaign in 2022, and was a strategist for the Warren County auditor’s special election, which we covered in the summer of 2023.

I forgot to mention during the show that Stauch managed the Democratic coordinated campaign last fall in Nebraska’s second Congressional district, which delivered an electoral vote to Kamala Haris.

Stauch was a senior staffer for Planned Parenthood of the Heartland during the 2000s and has advised other nonprofits.

Stauch has said she’s approaching the race like a job interview, and we talked about what that means, her top issues, and how she plans to structure her campaign. She told me Democrats “should have primaries at every level” to get voters more engaged. I wrote more about her campaign as well as the Democratic front-runner, Rob Sand, at Bleeding Heartland.

The Cedar Rapids Gazette’s Erin Murphy asked Stauch how should would compete with the millions of dollars Sand has raised. She replied,

“Having worked in them, I’ve watched campaigns often not use money well. So I know that having money is not an assurance of a win. It does make things easier, but it doesn’t mean you win,” Stauch said.

“So I’m not really competing with (Sand) on money. I’ll never be able to do that because I don’t have millionaires in my family,” Stauch said. “But I will have money (and) resources. And I am going to beat him on the messaging and on how I’m connecting with the voters.”

Rob Sand highlights state economy, small town’s water problems

Sand seems to be running more of a general election strategy, focusing on Republican leadership failures rather than on his Democratic rival. Last week, his campaign was all over a report from WalletHub, which looked at 28 metrics and found, “Out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, Iowa is ranked last in economic activity, 48th in economic health, and 29th in innovation potential.”

Sand said in a statement, “Decades of one-party rule and leaders answering to powerful insiders over Iowans has been failing our state, and it shows in this new report,” He said “Iowa families are being left behind. It’s time for new leadership in our state that puts Iowans first and politics last.”

Sand was also on the road last week in Exira—a town of about 800 people in western Iowa (Audubon County) where people have been dealing with water restrictions for years, and had a boil advisory for several weeks.

He’s been emphasizing his small town background and set up an event at the Exira public library. It fits with his broader message about government focusing on solving problems rather than partisan politics.

Ernst hires 2026 campaign manager

Senator Joni Ernst hasn’t made her re-election bid official, but she did announce last Wednesday that she hired Bryan Kraber “as campaign manager for her 2026 re-election.” He worked on Ernst’s 2020 campaign as well as for several other GOP candidates and for the Koch-funded group Americans for Prosperity.

I suspect she wanted to head off speculation that this uproar over her comment that “we all are going to die” had discouraged her from running. My guess is, she will formally kick off the campaign at her Roast and Ride fundraiser, which is happening in October.

It’s worth noting that Governor Reynolds had hired a campaign manager and supposedly even a finance director before she announced in April that she wouldn’t seek a third term.

Dave Price, Kathie Obradovich, and I talked about the Senate race on the latest “Iowa Down Ballot” podcast.

Jim Carlin running against Ernst from the right

Former State Senator Jim Carlin finally confirmed last Friday that he will run against Ernst in the Republican primary. In a statement, he said, “Joni Ernst said she would go to D.C. and make them squeal […]After a decade, it’s clear it was a clever campaign commercial, not conviction. Rather than making them squeal, Joni has joined The Swamp."

I’ve been waiting for this, since Carlin filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission months ago. He ran against Senator Chuck Grassley in 2022 and received about 26.5 percent of the GOP primary vote despite raising very little money.

Speaking to Iowa Capital Dispatch last week, Carlin “said Ernst is not reflecting Iowa Republicans’ values in Congress. […] He pointed to her support for money to aid Ukraine in its war against Russia and her vote in favor of the Respect for Marriage Act as examples of Ernst not voting in line with conservative values.”

I found it interesting that he criticized Ernst’s town hall comment, characterizing it as flippant—even though he supports cuts to federal spending.

Ernst’s campaign manager Bryan Kraber wished Carlin “Good luck trying to take on this combat veteran.” He said “Senator Ernst has a proven record of conservative leadership” and predicted Iowans would reject what he called Carlin’s “desperate attempt at relevance again in 2026.”

Certainly Carlin will be the underdog against Ernst. But I could easily see him getting 30 to 35 percent of the vote.

I was intrigued to see that four Republican legislators are listed as speakers at a Carlin campaign event this week: State Senators Kevin Alons and Doug Campbell (leaders on the eminent domain issue) and State Representatives Eddie Andrews and Samantha Fett.

Fun fact: Carlin is indirectly responsible for the only warning I ever got from YouTube. He’s a big 2020 election denier and had given a speech on the Iowa Senate floor full of false claims about the 2020 election being stolen from Trump. When I tried to upload the clip to YouTube, the video was flagged as disinformation. I appealed that but YouTube rejected my appeal and I didn’t push it.

Readers/listeners may remember that late last year, Joshua Smith announced that he would run against Ernst in the GOP primary. He even put up a (crude) digital ad. I looked at his social media after Carlin’s move and didn’t see any announcement that he was no longer running for Senate. But Smith hasn’t been as active lately, and I didn’t see any posts about the Ernst comments that made so much news ten days ago.

Ernst stands by controversial town hall remarks

Ernst was on Jeff Angelo’s WHO Radio show last Thursday. He asked her whether she would have done things a little differently with hindsight, given all of the controversy. She said, “No, I don’t think so.”

This was very on brand for Republicans of the Trump era. Never apologize, just attack. Speaking to Angelo, Ernst said she respects public discourse, which is why she holds town halls. But she said she doesn’t respect “the fearmongering that’s coming from the radical left.” She also doesn’t respect the way people in the audience were yelling at her and calling her a liar throughout that town hall. She said it was “abusive,” including f-bombs.

Listening to the interview reminded me of another bit of Iowa political trivia: if not for Jeff Angelo, Ernst might not be where she is.

Here’s why: Angelo decided in 2008 not to run for a fourth term in the Iowa Senate. Kim Reynolds (then the Clarke County treasurer) ran successfully in that district. After Terry Branstad picked Reynolds as his running mate and they won the 2010 governor’s race, Republicans recruited Ernst (then the Montgomery County auditor) to run in the special election for the Iowa Senate. From there she ran for the open U.S. Senate seat in 2014.

If Angelo had decided to make a career out of legislative work, maybe Ernst would still be a county auditor. We’ll never know.

Jackie Norris confirms she’s “seriously considering” Senate race

A couple of weeks ago we mentioned widespread speculation that Jackie Norris might join the field of Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. In a Facebook post last Friday, Norris wrote that she is “seriously considering” running against Ernst.

Our kids and families are stuck in the crosshairs of partisan politics," she said in a statement. "Depriving human beings access to critical programs like Medicaid and SNAP and treating people like bargaining chips is cruel. As a mom, community leader, school board member and small business owner, I cannot sit by.

Democrats Nathan Sage and J.D. Scholten are already running. I would guess that if Norris runs, she will announce after July 1. A lot of candidates like to launch early in a fundraising quarter rather than near the end of one (which would be June 30).

State Senator Zach Wahls is also expected to seek the Democratic nomination, and State Representative Josh Turek has said he isn’t ruling this race out.

Democratic poll sees Ernst potentially in trouble

Public Policy Polling conducted an Iowa poll last week for the Senate Majority PAC and found some alarming numbers for Ernst.

Only 39% of voters approve of the job Ernst is doing to 47% who disapprove. Just 38% say they want to reelect her to 52% who prefer someone new, and a match up with a generic Democratic opponent is virtually tied with Ernst getting 45% and her hypothetical foe 43%.

This is a Democratic survey, but PPP uses solid polling methods.

I was struck by this funding: “69% of voters have heard about Ernst’s recent comment that we’re all going to die, and she’s facing fallout from it. By a 37 point margin those familiar with what she said report being less likely to vote for her next year.”

I would have thought even more voters had heard about what she said at the town hall. That suggests to me there is still room to educate the electorate about the comments.

PPP found, “Ernst fares poorly on several other measures we tested in the poll. 35% characterize her as a strong leader, while 47% call her weak. And only 31% consider her to be an independent voice for Iowa, while 53% say she’s a ‘partisan voice for Donald Trump.’" The polling memo concluded, “Joni Ernst is unpopular and could face a tough fight for reelection next year.”

Those numbers are pretty bad for an incumbent, but keep in mind that a lot of the people who may tell a pollster they don’t like Ernst are Republicans. They may not be open to voting for a Democrat in the general election.

Woman who shouted “People will die” at Ernst now running for the legislature

India May is not a household name, but her outburst at Ernst’s town hall in Parkersburg prompted the infamous reply, “Well, we all are going to die.” May confirmed last week that she’s running for Iowa House district 58, which covers most of Floyd County, all of Chickasaw County, and parts of Bremer County (but not Waverly).

May is a registered nurse and a death investigator for Chickasaw County, as well as director of the Ionia Public Library. She’ll be the underdog against two-term Republican State Representative Charley Thomson.

This part of northeast Iowa has swung heavily toward the GOP over the past decade. Last November, Trump got around 65 percent of the vote in the precincts that make up House district 58, while Kamala Harris received around 33 percent.

Iowa loses seat on powerful DNC committee

The Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel reported last week that Iowa “has lost its longtime seat on the influential panel of the Democratic National Committee that oversees the presidential nominating calendar. […] An Iowan has held a spot on that committee for at least the last four presidential election cycles.”

New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will all have two seats on the Rules and Bylaws Committee.

It’s a sign Iowa will not be one of the early states for Democrats in 2028. The big problems are that Iowa is no longer perceived as a swing state, the state’s population is not demographically representative of the party, and many Democrats around the country see caucuses as disenfranchising.

I’ve seen some chatter on social media that the Iowa Democratic Party could defy the DNC calendar and hold early caucuses. But which presidential candidates would actually campaign here? We had a good run, but it’s past time for Democrats to accept the reality that they cannot recreate the Iowa caucus magic.

Iowa DOGE task force considers county consolidation

The DOGE task force that Governor Reynolds created in the spring held its second meeting last week. One idea floated at the meeting was consolidating some of the state’s 99 counties to avoid duplication of services. And Reynolds didn’t rule that out, telling reporters on Friday, “We have to take a look at everything.” She added, “Iowans are going to have to decide if they truly do want their property taxes reduced, then we probably are going to have to think about how we deliver services a little bit differently, a little bit more efficiently.”

The original idea for having 99 counties was to allow every Iowan to get to the county seat and back in a single day. Using that criteria, we could have far fewer counties now. But of course, people don’t want to spend all day getting to a government office and back anymore.

I’m skeptical this will make it into the final DOGE recommendations. If it does, I doubt the legislature will act on the constitutional amendment that would be required to change the number of counties.

Spencer shared his perspective, as someone who lives in a smaller county. Marion County has already seen some consolidation of state or federal services. But it’s like closing down a school—it would really affect the community. County government entities are large employers, so eliminating them could lead to a death spiral for some of the smaller county-seat towns. Spencer pointed out that many locally owned businesses support people who work at the courthouse.

The DOGE task force has another meeting set for August and is supposed to finalize its recommendations in September. It sounds like they are going to propose consolidating workforce programs and making some changes to technology used by state government.

Reynolds stacked this task force with people from the private sector. It would be interesting to hear the ideas that would have come from a group of state employees, but they were not included.

More notable bill signings

The governor continues to sign lots of bills. We are going to cover more of them on next week’s show, since Reynolds only has a few more days to make her final decisions on what to sign or veto. We had time for a couple of important new laws on Monday.

Senate File 615 would impose new work requirements for many Iowans on Medicaid, if the federal government approves a waiver. (Obviously the Trump administration would do so.) Medicaid recipients would have to work at least 80 hours per month unless they are in one of the exempt groups: younger than 19, older than 64, primary caregiver for a child under age 6, going through a high-risk pregnancy, or receiving treatment for a substance abuse disorder.

A lot of people are left out of those exemptions, such as college students and parents caring for older children or adults with disabilities. They would be at risk of losing coverage.

The Iowa Department of Health and Human Services did not provide information to the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency when analysts were trying to calculate the impact of this bill. But based on what happened in Arkansas after a similar law was enacted, LSA calculated that some 32,000 Iowans may lose Medicaid coverage because of the work requirements.

When the House and Senate debated this bill, Democrats strongly objected to a provision that said Iowa would terminate its Medicaid expansion program (the Iowa Health and Wellness Plan) if a future federal administration revoked the waiver for Iowa’s work requirements. Around 180,000 Iowans are now part of that Medicaid expansion program.

If large numbers of Iowans lose access to Medicaid, that would affect not only the people who lose coverage, but also hospitals that would be dealing with more emergency room visits and uncompensated care for the uninsured.

Senate File 607 is the governor’s proposal to reduce the amount businesses pay into Iowa’s unemployment trust fund. It lowers the tax rate as well as the amount of wages that employers have to pay tax on. It’s expected to result in businesses paying $1 billion less into the fund.

Reynolds has claimed the state is “overcollecting” from businesses, and the balance of nearly $2 billion in the unemployment trust fund is far more than we need. What she didn’t say: she used around $700 million in federal pandemic relief funds to support the unemployment trust fund. That money isn’t coming back. So if we have a recession and unemployment goes way up, we may have some problems.

Democrats will certainly cite this bill in many state legislative campaigns next year. Here’s a preview, in the form of a written statement from Democratic State Representative Dan Gosa last week:

While Iowa families struggle and Iowa’s economy ranks dead last, Governor Reynolds and Republican lawmakers are handing out a $1 billion tax break to big corporations, paid for by raiding funds meant for laid-off workers.

In 2022, Iowa Republicans slashed unemployment from 26 weeks to 16. Now they’re handing out tax breaks to corporations that lay off workers and ship jobs overseas. Iowa workers shouldn’t be footing the bill for corporate tax breaks.

Thanks so much for reading or listening!