A surprising Iowa poll, Congressional campaign intrigue, and more
September 16 "Capitol Week" is online
The last week has been a fun one for Iowa Democrats, who haven’t had much to celebrate in recent years. Even in red counties, people are fired up. Unfortunately, I heard that there was a mass theft of Harris/Walz signs in Algona over the weekend. If Democratic yard signs have been disappearing in your area, please let me know.
and I didn’t spend a lot of time talking about the presidential debate, which happened six days before Monday night’s radio show. But along with several other Iowa Writers’ Collaborative columnists, I shared my debate takeaways on last week’s Iowa Down Ballot podcast. We’re recording new episodes every week through the November election. Also, check out the Iowa Revolution podcast, co-hosted by Spencer and .The audio file for the latest “KHOI’s Capitol Week” is at the top of this message, or you can find it on podcast platforms and smart speakers. The full radio show archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.
Here’s the rundown, for those who would rather read than listen:
We began with what we know about the second apparent assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, and the early reaction from Iowa politicians. I expect to hear more from Senator Chuck Grassley about this later in the week;
It’s extraordinary to have two assassination attempts in such a short time span, but not unprecedented: two women tried to shoot then President Gerald Ford in 1975;
We spent some time on the latest Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, which showed a surprisingly close presidential race. You should read Brianne Pfannenstiel’s write-up if you haven’t already. The always insightful Dan Guild wrote about the poll at Bleeding Heartland and explained why it’s a mistake to focus only on the margin between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris;
For me, the most important point is that if Harris is only 4 points behind statewide, she’s probably ahead in the third Congressional district and roughly tied in the first. Over the weekend I wrote more about what needs to happen for Lanon Baccam to beat Zach Nunn in IA-03. Last week I wrote about some encouraging signs for Christina Bohannan in IA-01;
The Selzer poll was mostly in the field before the presidential debate. I haven’t seen any data on whether numbers for Harris improved on the last day of sampling (after the debate). The survey indicated that Harris supporters were more enthusiastic than those who favor Trump, and I would guess that trend continued after the debate;
There weren’t a lot of silver linings for Republicans in this poll. Some people pointed out that Selzer has sometimes found races to be much closer in September and October than they ended up being in November;
The Selzer poll found the majority of likely Iowa voters believe Trump would do better than Harris on six of seven issues they asked about. Harris led on just one: how the candidates would handle abortion. The fact that she’s only 4 points back suggests to me that abortion is a highly salient issue for Iowa voters;
The poll is more bad news for Iowa Libertarians, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is pulling 6 percent, and Libertarian Chase Oliver just 1 percent among likely Iowa voters. Libertarians will lose their major-party status if Oliver doesn’t hit the 2 percent mark;
The Iowa Supreme Court ruled unanimously last week that a state panel acted correctly when it removed three Libertarian Congressional candidates from the ballot. We touched on the main legal issues in the case;
State Auditor Rob Sand (who dissented from the panel’s decision striking the Libertarians off the ballot) and Iowa’s highest-ranking elected Libertarian, Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn, both suggested the Iowa Supreme Court ruling would disadvantage third parties;
Although the court’s ruling could be construed narrowly, I expect more challenges to Iowa candidates in the future, arguing that the candidates did not strictly comply with some little-known aspect of Iowa Code;
The three Libertarians (Nicholas Gluba in IA-01, Marco Battaglia in IA-03, and Charles Aldrich in IA-04) plan to run write-in campaigns. I reviewed recent Congressional election results in Iowa and found third-party candidates listed on the ballot usually get at least ten times as many votes as write-ins;
Ryan Foley and Brian Slodysko had a great scoop for the Associated Press on Monday, about how a “shadowy group, the Patriots Run Project,” recruited pro-Trump candidates to run for Congress in several battleground districts, including IA-03 and IA-01. They didn’t collect enough signatures for their contender in the first district. The third district candidate withdrew his nominating papers after realizing he had been tricked;
It’s not clear who was behind the effort. Some of the companies and consultants involved have done work for Democratic candidates and causes. As for possible laws broken, it’s not illegal to help someone collect signatures. However, some of these groups may have provided in-kind campaign contributions that should have been reported to the Federal Election Commission;
U.S. Representative Zach Nunn was outraged by what he called a plot “to steal this election.” He didn’t complain when Republican operatives got involved in his race to knock a Libertarian off the ballot;
Sarah Watson reported on new questions surrounding the residency of U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks. A Le Claire resident has asked the Office of Congressional Ethics to investigate the matter. That will probably take years and may not be the right agency to investigate this kind of thing. Two years ago, I was not able to find any evidence Miller-Meeks actually lived at the address she listed on her voter registration. She has since changed her address to Davenport, but her staff won’t say whether she has bought or is renting a place;
Two proposed state constitutional amendments will be on Iowa’s ballot in November. We briefly explained what they’re about;
A quick reminder, because I get this question often: Iowans can’t force a statewide vote on abortion rights, because we don’t have citizen-led ballot initiatives;
Over the past week, four groups of plaintiffs filed lawsuits challenging the Iowa Utilities Commission’s approval of the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline project, which will use eminent domain. I summarized the main legal arguments and explained why it might be advantageous to have separate lawsuits, rather than combining them all into one case.
Thanks for reading or listening! You may enjoy
’s latest post: Why women are wearing pearls.We didn’t get into this on the show, but the Miller-Meeks story reminded me of one of the funniest experiences of my career: reading the Office of Congressional Ethics report on then U.S. Representative Rod Blum in December 2018. Supporting materials included a transcript of a phone call in which someone referred to me as “this crazy blog lady” and “this Bleeding Heartland bitch.”
It can be hard to keep track of what everyone in the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative is writing. Our Sunday morning roundup links to everyone’s posts over the past week, so you can quickly review what may interest you. You can sign up for the roundup here, for free.
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Speaking of Harris/Walz signs, a family member traveled to and from eastern Iowa to Storm Lake over the weekend. She noted a significant number of Harris/Walz signs in NW Iowa, Buena Vista county--indicating more democratic support than in the previous eight years her daughter has lived in the area. It's possible, too, that more NW Iowa Democrats feel comfortable displaying their candidate support.
Regarding the epithets tossed at you during the the Rod Blum ethics episode: Wear them as badges of honor!