This Substack hit the 150-subscriber mark today. As promised, here is another “ask me anything about Iowa politics” discussion thread.
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I will try to check back regularly over the next couple of days to answer your questions. Feel free to talk among yourselves as well!
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Drawing upon one of your other areas of expertise, I read “The Future is History” this summer. Putin called upon scholars from Hillsdale College when he wanted to foment opposition to western values, specifically, by enacting anti-LGBTQ laws. Does Governor Reynolds also consult with people from Hillsdale?
I just listened to the Fresh Air interview about the Arizona GOP, which has censured/evicted anyone who didn’t endorse the big lie. I wondered how the Iowa GOP compares with Arizona
There are quite a few elected Republicans who have endorsed the Big Lie. But that wasn't the main fault line in our recent GOP primaries. Rather, it was more about whether they supported the governor's school voucher plan or whether they weren't extreme enough in wanting to ban abortion.
Ask me anything ? What was Rick Santorum doing on the main drag at the Fairgrounds on Thursday? What is he up to ? There is no lane for him in Trump Republicanland.
That's a tough one! There are a lot of legislative races where there could be an upset. I have my eye on Mike Heaton, the Democratic challenger to Jeff Shipley in House district 87.
Really hard to say without knowing more about the national environment and the early vote numbers. If Democratic turnout collapses like in 2014, all the Republicans will win. But if there is a strong Democratic turnout like in 2018, Cindy Axne will get through and Bohannan/Mathis can't be counted out.
I can't make that prediction more than two months out! I don't even know where the parties are going to be spending money on legislative races.
Currently, the House is 60R-40D. I think either party could pick up seats, depending on the national environment and whether Democratic turnout collapses like in 2014 or is strong like in 2018. Today I would guess 62-38, but that's subject to change once I see spending levels and early voting numbers.
Terry Branstad defeated Jack Hatch by 59.0 percent to 37.3 percent. I think Deidre DeJear will do significantly better than that.
I really need to see the spending and early vote numbers in that district. It is slightly more favorable than the 2020 version, but the turnout may favor the GOP more this year than in 2020.
That's definitely a competitive district. No one should write it off.
Drawing upon one of your other areas of expertise, I read “The Future is History” this summer. Putin called upon scholars from Hillsdale College when he wanted to foment opposition to western values, specifically, by enacting anti-LGBTQ laws. Does Governor Reynolds also consult with people from Hillsdale?
Great question. I don't know the answer. There are a lot of influential Hillsdale alumni in Republican circles.
I just listened to the Fresh Air interview about the Arizona GOP, which has censured/evicted anyone who didn’t endorse the big lie. I wondered how the Iowa GOP compares with Arizona
There are quite a few elected Republicans who have endorsed the Big Lie. But that wasn't the main fault line in our recent GOP primaries. Rather, it was more about whether they supported the governor's school voucher plan or whether they weren't extreme enough in wanting to ban abortion.
Ask me anything ? What was Rick Santorum doing on the main drag at the Fairgrounds on Thursday? What is he up to ? There is no lane for him in Trump Republicanland.
No clue! Does he have a new book or tv show he's hawking?
What's your Iowa upset pick for the Iowa November elections (state or federal elections)?
That's a tough one! There are a lot of legislative races where there could be an upset. I have my eye on Mike Heaton, the Democratic challenger to Jeff Shipley in House district 87.
Liz Mathis over Ashley Hinson
Sara Trone Garriott over Jake Chapman
I wouldn't consider Sarah Trone Garriott winning an upset. In my mind, that's a toss-up race.
Hinson is favored but I wouldn't count Mathis out at all. It would be an upset for her to win, though.
I hope so on both - Chapman and Hinson are little more than far right Republican tools. Not a clear-headed thought between the two of them.
Who wins the 4 US House races, particularly the 3 with the potential to be closer?
Really hard to say without knowing more about the national environment and the early vote numbers. If Democratic turnout collapses like in 2014, all the Republicans will win. But if there is a strong Democratic turnout like in 2018, Cindy Axne will get through and Bohannan/Mathis can't be counted out.
Dear Laura Belin:
Q1. How many D’s will be in the Iowa House in 2023? Exact number please.
Q2. - DDJ over or under Jack Hatch’s percentage from 2014? Put a number on it, if you care to.
I can't make that prediction more than two months out! I don't even know where the parties are going to be spending money on legislative races.
Currently, the House is 60R-40D. I think either party could pick up seats, depending on the national environment and whether Democratic turnout collapses like in 2014 or is strong like in 2018. Today I would guess 62-38, but that's subject to change once I see spending levels and early voting numbers.
Terry Branstad defeated Jack Hatch by 59.0 percent to 37.3 percent. I think Deidre DeJear will do significantly better than that.
I really need to see the spending and early vote numbers in that district. It is slightly more favorable than the 2020 version, but the turnout may favor the GOP more this year than in 2020.
That's definitely a competitive district. No one should write it off.