Breaking news about Israel, Trump back in Iowa, and more

Oct. 16 "Capitol Week" is online

As of today, this newsletter has 1,500 subscribers! Huge thanks to all who helped me reach this milestone. Many of you found my work through other members of the Iowa Writers Collaborative, and I strongly encourage you to check out some of the other authors in the group—two just joined within the past week. The full roster is listed at the end of this post.

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On to our regularly scheduled programming: the “Capitol Week” recap.

Monday night, Dennis Hart showed off the skills he honed over a career in broadcast journalism. I’ve always leaned into analytical writing more than breaking news coverage. But Dennis is a pro at handling a developing story. He revamped our format less than a half-hour before air time and kept an eye on his news alerts while we were on the air, so he could update partway through the program.

Topics we covered this week (remember, you can listen to past programs anytime on KHOI Radio’s website):

• We began with the situation in Israel and President Joe Biden’s possible visit to that country this week. We briefly discussed the Urbandale church group that was trapped in Tel Aviv after the Hamas attacks on October 7. They made it back to central Iowa;

• U.S. Senator Joni Ernst and U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks were visiting Israel and other Middle East countries as part of a bipartisan delegation. Ernst returned last week;

• Turning to Iowa caucus news: A new Iowa State University/Civiqs poll of likely Republican caucus-goers showed former President Donald Trump with the largest lead I’ve seen in an Iowa poll: 55 percent for the former president, 17 percent for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 11 percent for former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and 5 percent for Vivek Ramaswamy. I explained why the Iowa caucuses are so difficult to poll;

• The numbers are particularly brutal for DeSantis, who is not only falling further behind Trump but has failed to extend his own lead over the rest of the also-rans;

• Trump held a rally in Adel on Monday and vowed that if he becomes president again, “We aren't bringing in anyone from Gaza or Syria or Somalia or Yemen or Libya, or anywhere else that threatens our security.” He also promised to bar people with certain kinds of views from immigrating to the U.S., which presumably would not be legal;

• Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird endorsed Trump on Monday and introduced him at his Dallas County rally. To me, this was the most interesting part of her statement: “Iowans know he is the only candidate who can defeat Joe Biden and bring prosperity back to America.” Conservative groups have spent millions of dollars on direct mail and digital advertising trying to convince Iowa Republicans that Trump would lose to Biden and drag down the GOP ticket. Bird’s comment directly undercuts that argument, as well as the other presidential candidates who claim to be more electable;

• Trump continues to take shots at Governor Kim Reynolds, posting on his Truth Social network that he was “very sad to see Gov. Reynolds' numbers go down because of DeSanctimonious – I did so much for her.” Reynolds is widely expected to endorse DeSantis later this year, but now I am starting to wonder whether she will decide not to spend her political capital on a candidate poised to lose big;

• Watching Trump’s recent rallies in Iowa, I’ve noticed that his campaign is building a much stronger organization this year than he had before the 2016 caucuses. Thomas Beaumont wrote a good article on this for the Associated Press, with details on the new Trump ground game;

• Federal Judge Tanya Chutkan imposed a gag order on Trump Monday, saying that he’s free to criticize his prosecution but cannot attack witnesses, prosecutors and court staff involved the case brought by special counsel Jack Smith. I cannot imagine that Trump will comply with this directive, and I doubt any judge would try to revoke his pretrial release;

• Meanwhile, DeSantis has tried to score points with Iowa Republicans by saying the U.S. should not accept any refugees from Gaza. He’s also continuing to run an old-fashioned caucus campaign, most recently rolling out a list of 26 Iowa county sheriffs who have endorsed him. This year’s trajectory must be frustrating for DeSantis, but there’s no evidence the majority of GOP voters are looking for an alternative to Trump;

• We briefly covered Haley’s latest visit to Iowa and her comments about the situation in the Middle East. I think she is positioning herself well for a top-three finish in Iowa and New Hampshire;

• U.S. Senator Tim Scott’s campaign has not taken off, and his super-PAC seems to be throwing in the towel. Politico’s Natalie Allison reported Monday that the super-PAC is canceling about $40 million in air time reserved for this fall: “we aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative”;

• Dennis shared the breaking news that Biden will visit Israel this Wednesday;

• We returned to the controversy surrounding Ramaswamy’s recent visit to Grinnell. I highly recommend Grinnell student journalist Zach Spindler-Krage’s essay about the incident and how many media ran with a misleading narrative;

• U.S. Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania will headline the Iowa Democratic Party’s Liberty and Justice Celebration on November 4. This strikes me as a good choice for the party; Fetterman’s an entertaining politician with a growing national profile;

• U.S. House Republicans will vote Tuesday on a new speaker. Amazingly, Jim Jordan (who has huge baggage related to the January 6 coup attempt and a sexual abuse scandal at Ohio State University) is favored to win the election. We talked about the state of play in the speaker’s race. Note: I mentioned that Iowa Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), and Zach Nunn (IA-03) had indicated they would support Jordan. After our show, I saw that Miller-Meeks told reporters in Washington that she was undecided. Randy Feenstra (IA-04) posted on X/Twitter after our show aired that he is for Jordan;

• Speaking of Miller-Meeks, her Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan outraised her by a lot during the third quarter, even though Bohannan was only a candidate for about half of the reporting period. I went through the noteworthy numbers from the campaign finance disclosures at Bleeding Heartland. In case you missed it, a few weeks ago I wrote about what needs to happen for Bohannan to win this race;

• Last week, the state revealed that nearly 19,000 students were approved for “education savings accounts,” far more than anticipated. We don’t know yet whether all of those students were able to enroll in private schools. If they are, the first-year cost of the school voucher program would be around $144 million (the legislature budgeted for about $107 million);

• Iowa’s Revenue Estimating Conference rolled out new projections last week. State Revenues are expected to fall by about 1 percent as tax cuts continue to phase in. Republicans are spending so much less than projected revenues that we’re not likely to face any immediate shortfalls. But I still believe that in the medium term, Iowa is headed toward a revenue crash like what Kansas experienced last decade;

• We had just a minute or two to discuss new data on Iowa’s family planning program, which has been a disaster ever since Republicans revamped the program to exclude Planned Parenthood. I wrote much more about this at Bleeding Heartland, and that piece has resonated with many readers (it may end up among my ten most-viewed posts of the year);

• We wanted to acknowledge the award recently presented to retired Drake Law Professor Russell Lovell, who has spent decades working on important civil rights cases and devotes countless pro bono hours to the NAACP.

Dennis and I didn’t get to all the topics we had planned to cover, but we will be back next Monday evening. Thanks for reading or listening!

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Welcome to Nicole Baart and Arnold Garson, the newest members of the Iowa Writers Collaborative:

Nicole Baart: This Stays Here, Sioux Center

Laura Belin: Iowa Politics with Laura Belin, Windsor Heights

Doug Burns: The Iowa Mercury, Carroll

Dave Busiek: Dave Busiek on Media, Des Moines

Steph Copley: It Was Never a Dress, Johnston

Art Cullen: Art Cullen’s Notebook, Storm Lake

Suzanna de Baca: Dispatches from the Heartland, Huxley

Debra Engle: A Whole New World, Madison County

Julie Gammack: Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck, Des Moines and Okoboji

Arnold Garson: Second Thoughts, Okoboji and Sioux Falls

Joe Geha: Fern and Joe, Ames

Jody Gifford: Benign Inspiration, West Des Moines

Nik Heftman: The Seven Times, Los Angeles and Iowa

Beth Hoffman: In the Dirt, Lovilia

Dana James: New Black Iowa, Des Moines

Pat Kinney: View from Cedar Valley, Waterloo

Fern Kupfer: Fern and Joe, Ames

Robert Leonard: Deep Midwest: Politics and Culture, Bussey

Letters from Iowans, Iowa

Tar Macias: Hola Iowa, Iowa

Alison McGaughey, The Inquisitive Quad Citizen, Quad Cities

Kurt Meyer: Showing Up, St. Ansgar

Wini Moranville, Wini’s Food Stories, Des Moines

Jeff Morrison: Between Two Rivers, Cedar Rapids

Kyle Munson, Kyle Munson’s Main Street, Des Moines

Jane Nguyen, The Asian Iowan, West Des Moines

John Naughton: My Life, in Color, Des Moines

Chuck Offenburger: Iowa Boy Chuck Offenburger, Jefferson and Des Moines

Barry Piatt: Piatt on Politics Behind the Curtain, Washington, D.C.

Dave Price: Dave Price’s Perspective, Des Moines

Macey Spensley: The Midwest Creative, Iowa

Larry Stone: Listening to the Land, Elkader

Mary Swander: Mary Swander’s Buggy Land, Kalona

Mary Swander: Mary Swander’s Emerging Voices, Kalona

Cheryl Tevis: Unfinished Business, Boone County

Ed Tibbetts: Along the Mississippi, Davenport

Teresa Zilk: Talking Good, Des Moines

To receive a weekly roundup of all Iowa Writers’ Collaborative columnists, sign up here (free): ROUNDUP COLUMN

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