Today’s Iowa poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points supports Laura's recent analysis. Through some of my work with grassroots groups and North Central Iowa political parties, there may be further surprises ahead. Margaret Liston, running for an open State Senate seat in Ogden, has built a strong ground game, as have House candidates Vosler (Boone) and Ryan Condon (Nevada).
If Harris wins Iowa, it could signal a shift in the state’s political landscape, making it less predictable. Down-ballot effects could also impact Republican-held seats in unexpected ways. Pollster J. Ann Selzer notes that the tightening race reflects shifting support among women and younger voters, demographics where Harris has particular appeal.
In addition to relatively unpopular Republican policies, including recent abortion restrictions and private voucher initiatives, pipeline and eminent domain issues have also stirred opposition. This has played to the advantage of candidates like Ryan Melton, running a strong campaign against Feenstra in the 4th Congressional District. Like Trone Garriott and others, Melton has reached out to independents and R's and refrained from focusing exclusively on Democratic voters—a tactical misstep for some campaigns and party structures.
I have trouble believing Harris leads Trump in Iowa. Even the best pollsters can have an off sample. But even if Trump leads by 5-6 points statewide, Harris is very likely ahead in all of these battleground Iowa Senate districts, which is good news for Democrats.
Today’s Iowa poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points supports Laura's recent analysis. Through some of my work with grassroots groups and North Central Iowa political parties, there may be further surprises ahead. Margaret Liston, running for an open State Senate seat in Ogden, has built a strong ground game, as have House candidates Vosler (Boone) and Ryan Condon (Nevada).
If Harris wins Iowa, it could signal a shift in the state’s political landscape, making it less predictable. Down-ballot effects could also impact Republican-held seats in unexpected ways. Pollster J. Ann Selzer notes that the tightening race reflects shifting support among women and younger voters, demographics where Harris has particular appeal.
In addition to relatively unpopular Republican policies, including recent abortion restrictions and private voucher initiatives, pipeline and eminent domain issues have also stirred opposition. This has played to the advantage of candidates like Ryan Melton, running a strong campaign against Feenstra in the 4th Congressional District. Like Trone Garriott and others, Melton has reached out to independents and R's and refrained from focusing exclusively on Democratic voters—a tactical misstep for some campaigns and party structures.
I have trouble believing Harris leads Trump in Iowa. Even the best pollsters can have an off sample. But even if Trump leads by 5-6 points statewide, Harris is very likely ahead in all of these battleground Iowa Senate districts, which is good news for Democrats.
Yes, great analysis, Laura. So appreciated.
Great analysis. Thank you.