Ernst in the hot seat, lands first GOP primary challenger

Dec. 9 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

Senator Joni Ernst in photo first published on her official Facebook page on November 14

The Iowa Writers’ Collaborative holiday party is coming up this Friday, December 13. Julie Gammack has arranged for us to gather at the Harkin Institute on the Drake University campus (2800 University in Des Moines) from 5 pm to 8 pm. Come for appetizers, a short program, and a chance to meet some of our writers. A donation will be accepted at the door for partners or guests; please mention on the RSVP form if you plan to bring a guest.

Every Monday afternoon since the election, I’ve checked my email a zillion times wondering if that lieutenant governor announcement will upend our format for the radio show. It hasn’t happened yet! But there was some breaking news from Senator Joni Ernst’s office.

Here’s what Spencer Dirks and I discussed on Monday night’s episode of “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” The audio file is at the top of this email, or you can listen on any podcast platform. The full archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.

Joni Ernst facing MAGA pressure campaign

MAGA world is not happy that Senator Ernst hasn’t committed to voting yes on Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s unqualified pick to be secretary of defense. This one is not just a big Iowa politics story; it’s getting a lot of national media coverage.

Spencer read out the statement Ernst’s office released on Monday:

I appreciate Pete Hegseth’s responsiveness and respect for the process. Following our encouraging conversations, Pete committed to completing a full audit of the Pentagon and selecting a senior official who will uphold the roles and value of our servicemen and women — based on quality and standards, not quotas — and who will prioritize and strengthen my work to prevent sexual assault within the ranks. As I support Pete through this process, I look forward to a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources.

That sounded to me like she’s going to vote yes, but she and her staff refused to confirm that when asked by other reporters, saying only that she supports the process.

Ernst’s vote is particularly important because she serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Any Republican who joins Democrats to oppose Hegseth could keep his nomination from coming out of committee in the usual way.

The Hegseth drama isn’t the only reason conservative influencers have been calling Ernst a “RINO.” I explained some of their other complaints and shared more of the negative comments posted online at Bleeding Heartland.

Joshua Smith launches GOP primary challenge to Ernst

Speculation is growing that Ernst may face a GOP challenger in 2026. One person has already thrown his hat in: Joshua Smith, a podcaster and longtime Libertarian activist, recently switched his registration to Republican and has been trying to drum up support for his campaign on X/Twitter.

I spoke to him on Monday afternoon and shared his comments as well as his social media comments about the Senate race at Bleeding Heartland.

Conservative radio host Steve Deace has said he would be willing to run for Senate or would step aside for a primary challenger backed by Trump.

Charlie Kirk has floated the idea of Kari Lake (who grew up in Scott County) moving back to Iowa to run for Senate. That seems far-fetched to me.

Reminder: Matt Whitaker, who ran for Senate in 2014 and lost to Ernst in a five-way primary, is likely headed to Brussels next year, assuming the Senate confirms him to be U.S. ambassador to NATO.

I doubt Ernst can be beaten unless Trump endorses some other Republican. And I doubt that will happen, because I think Ernst will end up voting for all of his nominees. On Monday, she posted pictures of herself with Kash Patel, saying he “will create much-needed transparency at the FBI,” and with Tulsi Gabbard, whom Ernst described as “a strong and proven leader!”

Other possible U.S. Senate candidates for 2026

No Democrat has gone public about plans to run for Senate in Iowa or seriously consider the race. I think recruiting may be a problem, since national groups are unlikely to target the race after Ernst won in 2020 by more than 6 points and Senator Chuck Grassley won by 12 in 2022.

I did touch base with Thomas Laehn over the weekend. He confirmed he is still exploring a Senate campaign as a Libertarian and expects to decide sometime next summer or fall.

Bird, Hinson, Grassley comments on Trump nominees

Attorney General Brenna Bird, one of Trump’s early Iowa endorsers, wrote in a guest column for the Breitbart website, “What we’re witnessing in Washington right now is a Deep State attempt to undermine the will of the people. We must not let Washington kill nominations before the Constitutional confirmation process even begins.” It sounded like a warning to all Republican senators (she didn’t single anyone out).

U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson defended Ernst’s approach to confirmations, while also clarifying that she supports Hegseth to run the Pentagon. Hinson’s staff don’t allow me to participate in her conference calls with reporters, so I had to rely on the Cedar Rapids Gazette’s coverage of her remarks.

I haven’t seen any concerns from Republicans about Senator Grassley, and I expect him to vote yes on all of Trump’s nominees. On Monday he praised Patel, whose nomination to lead the FBI would go through the Senate Judiciary Committee, which Grassley will chair.

Over the past week, Grassley has also met with Trump’s personal lawyer Todd Blanche, who is the nominee for deputy attorney general, attorney general nominee Pam Bondi, Vivek Ramaswamy (the co-leader of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency), treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent, and Elise Stefanik, who will be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

More Iowa election takeaways

I’m still working on angles for my “lessons of 2024” series at Bleeding Heartland. We talked about one of those posts, which highlighted the downward trend in the number of women elected to serve in the Iowa legislature. Next year, 27 women will be among the 100 House members, down from 29 currently and significantly down from the high point of 34 after the 2018 elections.

In the Iowa Senate, there will be fourteen women out of the 50 senators next year. That’s down due to Senator Pam Jochum’s retirement. However, women’s representation in the chamber will still be higher than at any point prior to 2023.

I noticed while working on this piece that the swing toward Trump was much smaller in suburban areas than in the state as a whole. That could be important for state legislative races in 2026, because several of the suburban districts could be battlegrounds.

Although I wrote about the 2024 election turnout last week, I will have more to say when the Iowa Secretary of State’s office publishes its statewide statistical report in January.

Fallout from policy targeting suspected “non-citizens”

Secretary of State Paul Pate and Attorney General Bird sued the federal government last week for not promptly providing information about the citizenship status of 2,176 voters. It looks like a political stunt to me. The Iowa SOS only asked the feds for this information a few weeks before the election. Almost 90 percent of these suspected “non-citizens” on Pate’s list were in fact naturalized citizens.

Zachary Oren Smith interviewed State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott for the Cornhole Champions podcast about her efforts to help targeted voters cure their ballots. It’s an outrageous story that you can listen to here. The Dallas County auditor refused to release the names of voters whose ballots had been challenged until a couple of hours before the deadline for curing their ballots. Trone Garriott was able to help five more voters have their ballots counted, but several were not able to have their voices heard. One of them had voted absentee and then traveled to India, so was unable to produce proof of citizenship at the Dallas County auditor’s office.

I also talked to Trone Garriott about this ordeal and plan to write about it soon. Subscribe to my other free newsletter if you don’t want to miss any articles or commentary published on the main site.

Prospects for more Iowa tax law changes

While accepting an award from the Iowa Taxpayers Association last week, Governor Kim Reynolds said “the best is yet to come.” We talked about some of the tax cuts she’s already signed into law and what might be coming during the 2025 legislative session.

My impression is that Republican legislative leaders are more focused on cutting property taxes in 2025 (probably at the expense of local governments) rather than continuing to reduce individual income taxes.

Speculation about a new lieutenant governor

Two weeks have passed since Reynolds told reporters she was "really close" to deciding on a new lieutenant governor and expected to announce her choice “in the next couple of weeks.” The Cedar Rapids Gazette’s Erin Murphy interviewed a bunch of insiders about who might be on the short list, including several people outside government.

I don’t know why it’s taking Reynolds so long, but it underscores how insignificant the lieutenant governor’s role has been in her administration. It’s a huge contrast to how Terry Branstad relentlessly promoted Reynolds when she held that office.

Iowa’s physician shortage

We had just a little time at the end of the show to talk about Iowa Public Radio’s recent reporting about the state’s physician shortage, which is especially acute in rural areas.

In August, I wrote about Dr. Emily Boevers’ remarks on how abortion bans harm rural health care, and not only in the field of obstetrics.

Thanks for reading or listening!