More Iowa election takeaways, reaction to Trump nominations

Dec. 2 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

Voter casting an early ballot in Johnson County on October 22 (photo published on Facebook by the Johnson County auditor’s office)

This recap is coming to you later than usual. I had a few other projects to finish Monday and Tuesday as well as a nice diversion—speaking with YouTuber Phil Edwards about my undergraduate thesis, “Secret Agents 301, 329, and 345: The Introduction of Hybrid Seed Corn in the USSR.” It’s been more than 30 years since I immersed myself in that subject, and I am still so grateful for the experience.

My advice to college students is to do a senior thesis or capstone project. Doesn’t matter what you’re majoring in or what topic you choose, or whether you plan to do any writing after graduation. Learning to do in-depth research and organize your thoughts about it will help you grow.

I am rarely speechless, but on Tuesday evening I learned that Abshir Omar, who was Bernie Sanders’ Iowa political director before the 2020 caucuses, is now a MAGA Republican activist in Minnesota. I wanted to let you know because some of you probably knew him when he lived in Iowa.

Moving on to Monday night’s show: the audio file is at the top of this email, or you can listen to “KHOI’s Capitol Week” on any podcast platform. The full archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website. Here’s what

Spencer Dirks

and I discussed:

ELECTION RESULTS FINALIZED

Iowa’s State Board of Canvass met Monday morning to certify the 2024 general elections. You can find final results for all the races here. The most surprising thing I learned was that for the first time in recent memory, Iowa Republicans mobilized more early voters than Democrats.

At Bleeding Heartland I wrote more about the grim picture facing Democrats looking for a way back. A particularly discouraging fact: by my calculations, Donald Trump carried 20 of the 25 state Senate districts that were on the ballot in 2024, and 71 of the 100 state House districts.

That piece also put Iowa’s presidential voting in historical context. After six straight elections where our popular vote for president was not far off the nationwide popular vote, we’ve had three elections in a row where Iowans voted 12 or 13 points to the right of Americans generally.

TAKEAWAYS FROM LAST TWO RACES TO BE CALLED

Last Wednesday, Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan conceded in the first Congressional district, where she finished 799 votes behind U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks. I said on the program that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bohannan run for Congress a third time, since she was one of the most over-performing Democratic candidates for U.S. House in the country. On Tuesday morning, Bohannan wrote in an email blast to supporters, “Let’s hold our heads high, regroup, and carry this momentum forward. Our work isn’t done – it’s just beginning.”

I think Miller-Meeks should be worried about a GOP primary challenge in 2026. Whoever ends up being the Democratic nominee needs to find a way to do better in the mid-sized counties.

The last Iowa legislative race to be finalized was House district 98 in Davenport, where Democratic State Representative Monica Kurth defeated Nathan Ramker by just 45 votes. Ramker has said he plans to run again in two years. I expect both parties to pay more attention to the race at that time, though it’s not clear whether the GOP candidate can do as well when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Redistricting played a role in this race being unexpectedly close. Most of Kurth’s district is in Davenport, but she picked up two precincts covering Buffalo and Buffalo township, where Ramker netted about 800 votes.

Quick reminder: Iowa has a fair redistricting process. So even though the maps adopted in 2021 did create problems for some incumbents, that wasn’t due to gerrymandering.

LEGISLATORS WHO WON UNDER DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES

I have been doing the tedious work of calculating the Trump/Harris votes in many of the Iowa House and Senate districts. Only six state House members and one state senator were re-elected in districts that voted for the other party’s presidential candidate. We spent a few minutes talking about these election results:

• Josh Turek (House district 20, Council Bluffs)

• Rick Olson (House district 39, eastern Polk County)

• JD Scholten (House district 1, Sioux City)

• Eddie Andrews (the only Republican on this list, House district 43 in Johnston)

• Monica Kurth (House district 98, Davenport)

• Heather Matson (House district 42, Ankeny)

• Sarah Trone Garriot (Senate district 14, Dallas County)

I’m working on a separate piece about these seven races, so stay tuned.

TAKEAWAYS ON IOWA’S 2024 TURNOUT

About 1.67 million Iowans cast ballots in the general election, which was only about 1.5 percent below the record-setting 2020 turnout level. Some of the most interesting details (turnout rates by age group, gender, and party affiliation) won’t be available until January, when the Iowa Secretary of State’s office publishes the statewide statistical report.

But I wanted to flag a few points to put Iowa’s turnout in a national context (we’re no longer in the top four or five states for turnout), and to highlight the Iowa counties with the highest and lowest turnout. If Secretary of State Paul Pate wants to do something useful, he could have his staff focus on increasing voter engagement in areas where turnout is consistently low.

You can read more of my thoughts about Iowa’s 2024 turnout at Bleeding Heartland.

FOLLOW-UP ON THE POLICY TARGETING “NON-CITIZENS”

The Des Moines Register’s chief political reporter Brianne Pfannenstiel followed up last week on Pate’s last-minute effort to prevent suspected “non-citizens” from casting ballots. Nearly 90 percent of the 2,176 people on the list he sent to county auditors were in fact naturalized citizens. Pfannenstiel learned,

Of the nearly 600 people who voted, 87%, or 506 people, provided the necessary documentation to prove their citizenship and have their vote counted by local and state election workers.

But another 13% of those votes, which came from 74 people, were rejected — primarily because those voters cast an absentee or provisional ballot and did not return with the necessary citizenship documentation by the deadline, auditors said.

Until those voters are analyzed further, they said, it’s impossible to know how many could have proven their citizenship under different circumstances.

It’s a disgrace that Pate’s attempt to hype a Republican talking point led to dozens of ballots not being counted. It’s very likely that nearly all of those 74 thwarted voters are naturalized citizens.

Pate plans to ask the legislature to take action on this supposed non-citizen voter problem. I explained in this piece why “proof of citizenship” bills could create barriers not only for immigrants who are entitled to vote, but for many natural born citizens who can’t easily locate the needed documents.

IOWA SENATE COMMITTEE LEADERS ANNOUNCED

Last week, Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver released the full list of committee chairs for 2025. I mentioned a few details that caught my attention:

• Jason Schultz moves from State Government to Judiciary (the outgoing chair Brad Zaun lost his re-election bid)

• Chris Cournoyer to lead State Government

• Mike Bousselot will chair the Commerce Committee, if he isn’t selected as lieutenant governor (the previous chair Waylon Brown resigned from the Senate over the summer)

• Mike Klimesh will lead Health and Human Services (Jeff Edler retired)

• former superintendent Lynn Evans will lead the Education Committee (former chair Ken Rozenboom moved up to Senate president pro-tem)

• Jesse Green replaces Jeff Taylor as head of the Education Appropriations subcommittee (not sure why Taylor was frozen out; would welcome tips)

IOWANS AND THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

We talked about Trump’s nominee for FBI director, Kash Patel, and why that could be one of the toughest confirmation battles. Senator Chuck Grassley hasn’t expressly endorsed Patel, but he is on board with Trump replacing the current FBI Director Christopher Wray. Once upon a time, it would have been unheard of for the president to fire an FBI director years before the end of his ten-year term, but all norms are out the window now.

Grassley and Governor Kim Reynolds praised Trump’s pick for secretary of agriculture, Brooke Rollins. We talked about her background and why she may not look favorably on the biofuels industry.

According to other news reports (I’m never allowed to participate in Grassley’s press calls), Grassley thinks Trump may be using tariffs “as a negotiating tool.” I do think Trump will look for ways to save face and not tank the economy with 25 percent tariffs.

Senator Joni Ernst wrote to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy last week with what she described as “a trillion dollars’ worth of ideas for trimming the fat and reducing red ink.” I explained briefly why her suggestions don’t add up to nearly that much in savings. You can read her letter and more of my thoughts in the update to this post.

Iowan Alex Latcham, a political operative who has worked for the Iowa GOP and for the Trump campaign in various roles, “will return to the White House to work as deputy assistant to the president and director of the Office of Public Liaison.”

STATE GOVERNMENT NEWS

Reynolds has said she’ll name a new lieutenant governor soon. Some people believe she will choose a state legislator, like Senator Mike Bousselot (who worked in the Branstad/Reynolds governor’s office for years) or even a leader like Senate President Amy Sinclair or House Speaker Pat Grassley. Former Iowa House Speaker Kraig Paulsen, who now leads the Department of Management, may be another contender.

The governor plans to ask the legislature to pass a law restricting cell phone use in schools.

Reynolds will also ask the Trump administration’s USDA to approve her food box distribution plan for next summer, instead of the Summer EBT program that provides money to all families with kids who qualify for free or reduced-price school lunches. My money’s on the feds saying yes, but Iowa Hunger Coalition chair Luke Elzinga is skeptical: “The state’s asking to waive 29 separate pieces of federal code […] They’re essentially saying, ‘We would like this money. We don’t want to participate in this program.’”

I was intrigued that the governor appointed former State Representative Dustin Hite as a District Court judge on the day after Thanksgiving. I explained at Bleeding Heartland why I think the story is newsworthy. Reynolds endorsed Hite’s 2022 GOP primary challenger after he refused to move her school voucher plan through the House Education Committee, and passed him over for a judgeship in 2023.

We wanted to mention an Iowa Supreme Court ruling from before Thanksgiving that was related to the Summit Carbon Solutions CO2 pipeline. You can read more about that case here. This addressed only a narrow issue (access to land for pipeline surveyors). I expect the Iowa Supreme Court will at some point decide the biggest legal question: is Summit Carbon a “common carrier” that can legally use eminent domain in Iowa?

Thanks for reading or listening.