I think abortion could be a key issue in all of those races.
Iowa Senate President Jake Chapman should have moved to a safer GOP district, rather than staying put to run against Senator Sarah Trone Garriott in a swing district. Chapman could get through if it turns out to be a GOP wave election, but this isn't a district he can comfortably hold for a decade. And he's one of the most extreme anti-abortion legislators, having sponsored "personhood" bills for years.
The Ankeny races will depend a lot on turnout, and both sides have a good ground game there. The district where Heather Matson is running is a bit more favorable to Democrats than the district where she narrowly lost in 2020. Again, the overall political environment will be a factor here.
One advantage Republicans have in Ankeny that Jake Chapman doesn't have: none of their candidates were around to vote for the near-total abortion ban that passed in 2018. That law was struck down in 2019, but Governor Reynolds is trying to revive it.
I think Garriott is going to win. She fits the district pretty well, and Jake has some 'out there' votes that can be exploited. Being Senate President isn't that big a deal to voters - see New Jersey for an example.
I wouldn't consider that an upset. That's a toss-up race in my mind. The voters of Iowa Senate district 14 don't support Jake Chapman's vendetta against public schools or banning abortion with no exceptions.
Being in the chair in the Iowa Senate can be a bigger deal than in the House, because the unwritten rules of the Senate mean there are no appeals of the ruling of the chair (mainly around germaneness) or votes to suspend the rules. Even so, if both parties are in lock step, that doesn't matter much. 'Back in the day' when things weren't so lock-step, being in the chair was a bigger thing. I could tell stories . . .
Question about Iowa Politics...how will Iowa ballots be different in November than in past elections (not including candidate names). Ballot initiatives, ability to split ticket, etc.
Republicans eliminated straight-ticket voting prior to the 2018 election. So there is no longer an oval to mark near the top of the ballot allowing people to choose either straight Democratic or Republican. That may lead to more split tickets, because some voters who lean Republican may mark their ballots for well-known statewide Democratic officials as they work their way down the ballot.
As many people have pointed out, State Senator Roby Smith was the architect of the election bill that eliminated straight-ticket voting. He could be hurt by that now, as the GOP challenger to State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.
Iowa will vote on a gun-related constitutional amendment this year. For most people, that will be near the bottom of the ballot, on the reverse side.
The judges up for retention this year will include two Iowa Supreme Court justices: Dana Oxley and Matthew McDermott. Other judges on the ballot will vary for Iowans, depending on where they live, since District Court judges are only up for retention in their own region.
One of the things that I always liked about Iowa is we didn't have ballot initiatives. In many states, these end up being campaigns dominated by corporate money or poorly written initiatives with unclear meaning where the electorate effectively flips a coin. On the other hand, a number of states (including red states like Montana and Alaska) legalized recreational marijuana that way. In fact, nearly all the early legal marijuana states did it that way (Colorado, Washington, Alaska, Oregon, Nevada, California, Maine, in that order). Western states have tended to be more ballot initiatives states. Sometimes they get it right (marijuana legalization) but sometimes they get it super-wrong (Taxpayer Bill of Rights in Colorado, Proposition 13 in California).
I know. Hard to remember to put buttons on...when I first started, I forgot to put a subscribe button on a column that was shared widely and went viral. Sigh.
What's your take on some of the DSM suburban state legislative races - Garriott v. Chapman, the Ankeny House and Senate races?
I think abortion could be a key issue in all of those races.
Iowa Senate President Jake Chapman should have moved to a safer GOP district, rather than staying put to run against Senator Sarah Trone Garriott in a swing district. Chapman could get through if it turns out to be a GOP wave election, but this isn't a district he can comfortably hold for a decade. And he's one of the most extreme anti-abortion legislators, having sponsored "personhood" bills for years.
The Ankeny races will depend a lot on turnout, and both sides have a good ground game there. The district where Heather Matson is running is a bit more favorable to Democrats than the district where she narrowly lost in 2020. Again, the overall political environment will be a factor here.
One advantage Republicans have in Ankeny that Jake Chapman doesn't have: none of their candidates were around to vote for the near-total abortion ban that passed in 2018. That law was struck down in 2019, but Governor Reynolds is trying to revive it.
I think Garriott is going to win. She fits the district pretty well, and Jake has some 'out there' votes that can be exploited. Being Senate President isn't that big a deal to voters - see New Jersey for an example.
I wouldn't consider that an upset. That's a toss-up race in my mind. The voters of Iowa Senate district 14 don't support Jake Chapman's vendetta against public schools or banning abortion with no exceptions.
Whitver is the leader. Being Senate President is pretty meaningless in Iowa.
Being in the chair in the Iowa Senate can be a bigger deal than in the House, because the unwritten rules of the Senate mean there are no appeals of the ruling of the chair (mainly around germaneness) or votes to suspend the rules. Even so, if both parties are in lock step, that doesn't matter much. 'Back in the day' when things weren't so lock-step, being in the chair was a bigger thing. I could tell stories . . .
Agree it matters in the chamber. Don’t think it matters much in the election.
Thanks for the insights!
Question about Iowa Politics...how will Iowa ballots be different in November than in past elections (not including candidate names). Ballot initiatives, ability to split ticket, etc.
Republicans eliminated straight-ticket voting prior to the 2018 election. So there is no longer an oval to mark near the top of the ballot allowing people to choose either straight Democratic or Republican. That may lead to more split tickets, because some voters who lean Republican may mark their ballots for well-known statewide Democratic officials as they work their way down the ballot.
As many people have pointed out, State Senator Roby Smith was the architect of the election bill that eliminated straight-ticket voting. He could be hurt by that now, as the GOP challenger to State Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald.
Iowa will vote on a gun-related constitutional amendment this year. For most people, that will be near the bottom of the ballot, on the reverse side.
The judges up for retention this year will include two Iowa Supreme Court justices: Dana Oxley and Matthew McDermott. Other judges on the ballot will vary for Iowans, depending on where they live, since District Court judges are only up for retention in their own region.
One of the things that I always liked about Iowa is we didn't have ballot initiatives. In many states, these end up being campaigns dominated by corporate money or poorly written initiatives with unclear meaning where the electorate effectively flips a coin. On the other hand, a number of states (including red states like Montana and Alaska) legalized recreational marijuana that way. In fact, nearly all the early legal marijuana states did it that way (Colorado, Washington, Alaska, Oregon, Nevada, California, Maine, in that order). Western states have tended to be more ballot initiatives states. Sometimes they get it right (marijuana legalization) but sometimes they get it super-wrong (Taxpayer Bill of Rights in Colorado, Proposition 13 in California).
Put a Comment button on the bottom of the post.
Done--thanks! I am a Substack rookie. My website automatically has a space for comments under every post.
I know. Hard to remember to put buttons on...when I first started, I forgot to put a subscribe button on a column that was shared widely and went viral. Sigh.