Laura - You did an excellent job of documenting the consistent movement of voters away from the Democratic Party in Iowa. I would like to add some thoughts on the reasons for the shift.
Coincidentally, today's DMR containing an opinion piece why Mickey Slout, an Iowan who graduated from John Hopkins and is now a Med student at Harvard. She powerfully explains - with great data - why she won't be coming back to Iowa. We have seen this trend of a significant portion of new college grads leaving the state for decades. An Iowa Community College study several years ago agreed with Micky's observation that they were going to Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin and the Community College study also showed very significant differences in compensation in the receiving states. Iowa is a low wage state, even with low unemployment. Minimum wage hasn't changed since the federal change in 2009. Wealth in the Iowa economy has become centralized and inequality has increased. Many Iowans have been left behind and they feel that the national government has been terribly unresponsive . They see perpetual, self serving gridlock in Congress and have yet to feel (or acknowledge) the direct benefit of recent policy gains in infrastructure. What they have heard over the years from the Democratic Party is a great deal about gender issues with which they have little familiarity. They see enormous sums dedicated to wars in other countries that resonate little with their own dilemmas. Those feelings have been exploited by those on the right that simply want to disassemble government services for the gain of those who fund them.
It will take time and concentrated effort to change this shift and it will involve better tracking and better communication of the negative impacts of the policies to come.
Thanks, Ted. When you say "What they have heard over the years from the Democratic Party is a great deal about gender issues with which they have little familiarity," are you talking about abortion rights?
Because if you are talking about LGBTQ issues, it's not Democratic politicians who have talked a great deal about them. Republicans have spent millions of dollars in Iowa and nationally on ads that try to associate Democrats with transgender people and undocumented immigrants.
Many Democratic candidates have talked about economic issues but those messages have not broken through.
I insist in Iowa, every other state and on a federal level, the Democrats biggest problem is not offering an opportunity of good governance. Consistently nominating the wrong candidate and never offering best policy practice doesn't help either.
But hey, what do I know? I'm just a hayseed with no Greek ...,
When communities like these have drifted toward Republicans across the country, over an extended period of time, the explanation can't be as simple as "Iowa Democrats nominated the wrong candidates."
Many of these state legislators or legislative candidates were deeply rooted in their communities and were talking about the bread and butter issues voters supposedly care about.
Please understand I'm not disparaging what you do. I think you are amazing. I'm pointing out what the party apparatus needs to do. It's a ubiquitous dynamic across the constituency. You're not gonna flip GOP voters. The numbers of independence and undecided are insignificant compared to the registered non-voters and the obvious unregistered eligible voters. That's gonna be a different crowd to get but I am positive the registered non-voters is someone you can get to show up to the poll if you improve their life with your policy in a statistically significant
Out of the 2.25 million registered voters in Iowa 1.66 million of them cast the ballot leaving almost 600,000 people who were already registered didn't show up. Then I'm sure a statistically significant number of eligible non-registered voters and you can sway any election in the state. Probably with just the registered non-voters. That's how black man became president of this racist shit hole. He motivated 7% of the 40 to 80,000,000 registered non-voters to come out and vote. 94% of them voted for him.
That's not gonna happen as an ancillary side effect. That's only gonna happen if it's a goal and believe you made the DNC on a national level is not gonna let that dynamic exist their goal is to make sure the donor class benefactor people are happy
Well they're not entirely stupid I mean it was a bunch of lip service obviously you cannot enforce or implement a real high-quality policy government governance on a state level with the DNC money and support going to the state candidates that totally carry their water
I'm not saying that at all I'm saying that happened on a federal level no doubt on state level and everything drift down. Because you're tied into what's up above you, please.
Did I provide so little of context that's what you glean from my comment? That sucks
There's another dynamic without doing any research that I am nearly positive is that play. You addressing the GOP constituents that is a not a dead horse that's a pile of bone dust. Wasted time and energy. I am sure that the number of registered non-voters and non-participants who are eligibleis significant. That's who the Democratic Party has to involve on a federal level nearly every state level especially the GOP ones
Let's put it this way I will simplify immensely. If you want to win state elections make sure you nominate the candidate that the DNC is not supporting. Guarantee that would work
You do such good work Laura! I can tell you from on the ground in Cedar County that Bohannon abandoned this county months before the election. I suspect she did the same in all the other rural counties, like almost every Dem (except Loebsack) in Iowa has done for decades. They show no interest in reaching Independents or even caring about rural poverty, alcoholism, battered women and god forbid, farming! As far as I can tell, working for a state rep challenger out here, Bohannon's strategy was to get registered Dems out to vote and that's it. Until Dems grow a spine and an inspiring vision that includes rural people, they won't win Iowa or the most of the country...and it could be too late now.
Laura, thank you for your deep research, your data, and your analysis. This is a great resource for our Democratic leadership as we move into the future, more informed by your work. I have so many more thoughts swirling around inside me that I hope in some restorative way I can learn from and come to grips with. Your Bleeding Heart will help guide me. Thank you.
Some final, comments, about where we are in 2024 Iowa and the United States.
One commentator, herein, makes the following remark about the Iowa Economy: "Iowa is a low wage state".
Please think long and hard about that remark. Think about what that statement implies, regarding the resulting "low" "quality of life" of all Iowans--men, women, and children---compared to the "high wage" "quality of life" offered in other U.S. states.
In my view, the above "inequality"---"low wage quality of life in Iowa", compared to "high wage quality of life", in other U.S. states--- is the result of a malfunctioning, American economy and a malfunctioning American Democracy. The fundamental principles of U.S. Constitution and Declaration of Independence support that conclusion.
Further, "Franklin Roosevelt, at the end of WW II, proposed a "Second Bill of Rights"--an "Economic Bill of Rights", which offered a new, post-war, standard of life, a "new basis for security and prosperity", for all Americans. He was serious about these "Rights", and this new, higher standard of life. These are "economic rights" that, by law, cannot be taken away by the private sector, and that give all Americans a "new stake" in American Democracy---health insurance, education, homes, etc.
In 2024, like past years, the Democratic Party has forgotten and set-aside Roosevelt's above new, economic agenda for the United States----and--- coupled with a failure to develop a realistic, coherent, long-term economic agenda, to restore American Industry (and failure to defeat the "America First" agenda)---has paid the political price for that neglect, over the years, including, the General Elections of 2024!
Finally, in my view, to win elections, again, and to move the United States forward, again, the Democratic Party must offer a new economic-social agenda---one that can defeat the Republican Party's "America First" economic-social agenda; and one that offers all Americans---in Iowa and all states---a new, more secure, more prosperous, and more equitable standard and quality of life.
The "West" did not end in American History, in the 1890s, with the passing-away of free lands. In 2024, it is still there-- but in a new form-- for us and our children and grandchildren---our "New West" is before us-- the new, unexplored, wilderness-frontier of tomorrow and the future! Each new day is a "New West!"
All of these communities have been hit hard with a loss of population and jobs. A lot of rural Iowa sees the growth in the Des Moines metro and blames them for their losses. It's difficult for any Democratic candidate with ties to Des Moines to get support in these areas.
Thanks for another excellent, in-depth presentation about Iowa Politics and the current political predicament of the Democratic Party, including, the Iowa Democratic Party.
In response, I would like to offer the following remarks:
The journalist, Theodore H. White, in the "Author's Note" of his book, "The Making of the President 1964", describes his "image of politics", as "an endless wagon train", which is on "an enormous trek" or journey, where, "at the head of the advance column, the leaders quarrel", and "debate and argue" "about the route" for tomorrow--- "to find where they should go".
At present, after the 2024 General Election, the Democratic Party's political "wagon train" is now engaged in its own debate, about its political route for tomorrow---"to find where they should go".
At the end of the above article, appears the following remark: "Whatever the reasons for the decline, Democrats need to find their footing in Iowa's mid-sized cities...".
Regarding "the reasons for the decline", and the above "footing" problem, I recommend the following articles, and the Report, mentioned therein, which discuss the historical erosion of the manufacturing and industry-related base of "Midwestern 'Factory Towns''. (See articles in Google):
(1) The New York Times, "Democrats Lost the Most in Midwestern 'Factory Towns' Report Says", October 8, 2021
(2) The New Republic, "How Iowa Fell in Love With the Republican Party", June 28, 2022
Bottom line lesson of above articles: The rise and growth of economic stress, uncertainty, and insecurity, in mid-sized and small-town Midwestern cities, like in the United States, generally, parallels with the rise/success of the "America First", and "Make America Great Again" political movement of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Democrats, now engaged in their above "wagon train" debate, about the political route, need to be willing to learn from the above lesson.
Briefly, in my view, the Democratic Party, to win again, must create/offer a new economic agenda---one that is politically popular; one that can successfully engage, counter, and defeat the "America First", "Make America Great Again", economic agenda; and one that can successfully engage, counter, and defeat the economic problems of our times.
That, in my view, is the challenge of the Democratic Party, and of American Democracy--going forward!
Nice read. I think u are losing sight of the why. Dems big push on abortion has irritated many. Putting Harris in at last minute, poor choice. Dems ignoring problem with old Joe. Immigration was huge. Illegal drug control, major problem to society. Knowing Dems want more of costly programs. More taxes. Blaming voters without college degrees was bad, no, totally stupid. I can show numerous very successful prosperous businesses with no college degrees employing many WITH college degrees. This one height of stupidity.
The past added to the present. U spent a lot of time putting numbers together but it's almost a waste if you don't get out and find out why, and not with other Dems.
Iowa Democrats have proposed tax policies that would help middle-income people, as opposed to what Republicans have passed which give the lion's share of the benefits to the wealthiest people and corporations.
Nice photo of the courthouse. I can just barely see the Messenger building too.
I can't take credit for it but I appreciate that the photographer made it available to the public.
My first newspaper job was at the Messenger so I have an abiding interest in Fort Dodge.
Excellent, detailed analysis, as always.
Laura - You did an excellent job of documenting the consistent movement of voters away from the Democratic Party in Iowa. I would like to add some thoughts on the reasons for the shift.
Coincidentally, today's DMR containing an opinion piece why Mickey Slout, an Iowan who graduated from John Hopkins and is now a Med student at Harvard. She powerfully explains - with great data - why she won't be coming back to Iowa. We have seen this trend of a significant portion of new college grads leaving the state for decades. An Iowa Community College study several years ago agreed with Micky's observation that they were going to Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin and the Community College study also showed very significant differences in compensation in the receiving states. Iowa is a low wage state, even with low unemployment. Minimum wage hasn't changed since the federal change in 2009. Wealth in the Iowa economy has become centralized and inequality has increased. Many Iowans have been left behind and they feel that the national government has been terribly unresponsive . They see perpetual, self serving gridlock in Congress and have yet to feel (or acknowledge) the direct benefit of recent policy gains in infrastructure. What they have heard over the years from the Democratic Party is a great deal about gender issues with which they have little familiarity. They see enormous sums dedicated to wars in other countries that resonate little with their own dilemmas. Those feelings have been exploited by those on the right that simply want to disassemble government services for the gain of those who fund them.
It will take time and concentrated effort to change this shift and it will involve better tracking and better communication of the negative impacts of the policies to come.
Thanks, Ted. When you say "What they have heard over the years from the Democratic Party is a great deal about gender issues with which they have little familiarity," are you talking about abortion rights?
Because if you are talking about LGBTQ issues, it's not Democratic politicians who have talked a great deal about them. Republicans have spent millions of dollars in Iowa and nationally on ads that try to associate Democrats with transgender people and undocumented immigrants.
Many Democratic candidates have talked about economic issues but those messages have not broken through.
I insist in Iowa, every other state and on a federal level, the Democrats biggest problem is not offering an opportunity of good governance. Consistently nominating the wrong candidate and never offering best policy practice doesn't help either.
But hey, what do I know? I'm just a hayseed with no Greek ...,
When communities like these have drifted toward Republicans across the country, over an extended period of time, the explanation can't be as simple as "Iowa Democrats nominated the wrong candidates."
Many of these state legislators or legislative candidates were deeply rooted in their communities and were talking about the bread and butter issues voters supposedly care about.
Please understand I'm not disparaging what you do. I think you are amazing. I'm pointing out what the party apparatus needs to do. It's a ubiquitous dynamic across the constituency. You're not gonna flip GOP voters. The numbers of independence and undecided are insignificant compared to the registered non-voters and the obvious unregistered eligible voters. That's gonna be a different crowd to get but I am positive the registered non-voters is someone you can get to show up to the poll if you improve their life with your policy in a statistically significant
Out of the 2.25 million registered voters in Iowa 1.66 million of them cast the ballot leaving almost 600,000 people who were already registered didn't show up. Then I'm sure a statistically significant number of eligible non-registered voters and you can sway any election in the state. Probably with just the registered non-voters. That's how black man became president of this racist shit hole. He motivated 7% of the 40 to 80,000,000 registered non-voters to come out and vote. 94% of them voted for him.
That's not gonna happen as an ancillary side effect. That's only gonna happen if it's a goal and believe you made the DNC on a national level is not gonna let that dynamic exist their goal is to make sure the donor class benefactor people are happy
I didn't say anything specifically about the state of Iowa until my last comment
Well they're not entirely stupid I mean it was a bunch of lip service obviously you cannot enforce or implement a real high-quality policy government governance on a state level with the DNC money and support going to the state candidates that totally carry their water
I'm not saying that at all I'm saying that happened on a federal level no doubt on state level and everything drift down. Because you're tied into what's up above you, please.
Did I provide so little of context that's what you glean from my comment? That sucks
There's another dynamic without doing any research that I am nearly positive is that play. You addressing the GOP constituents that is a not a dead horse that's a pile of bone dust. Wasted time and energy. I am sure that the number of registered non-voters and non-participants who are eligibleis significant. That's who the Democratic Party has to involve on a federal level nearly every state level especially the GOP ones
Let's put it this way I will simplify immensely. If you want to win state elections make sure you nominate the candidate that the DNC is not supporting. Guarantee that would work
You do such good work Laura! I can tell you from on the ground in Cedar County that Bohannon abandoned this county months before the election. I suspect she did the same in all the other rural counties, like almost every Dem (except Loebsack) in Iowa has done for decades. They show no interest in reaching Independents or even caring about rural poverty, alcoholism, battered women and god forbid, farming! As far as I can tell, working for a state rep challenger out here, Bohannon's strategy was to get registered Dems out to vote and that's it. Until Dems grow a spine and an inspiring vision that includes rural people, they won't win Iowa or the most of the country...and it could be too late now.
Laura, thank you for your deep research, your data, and your analysis. This is a great resource for our Democratic leadership as we move into the future, more informed by your work. I have so many more thoughts swirling around inside me that I hope in some restorative way I can learn from and come to grips with. Your Bleeding Heart will help guide me. Thank you.
Some final, comments, about where we are in 2024 Iowa and the United States.
One commentator, herein, makes the following remark about the Iowa Economy: "Iowa is a low wage state".
Please think long and hard about that remark. Think about what that statement implies, regarding the resulting "low" "quality of life" of all Iowans--men, women, and children---compared to the "high wage" "quality of life" offered in other U.S. states.
In my view, the above "inequality"---"low wage quality of life in Iowa", compared to "high wage quality of life", in other U.S. states--- is the result of a malfunctioning, American economy and a malfunctioning American Democracy. The fundamental principles of U.S. Constitution and Declaration of Independence support that conclusion.
Further, "Franklin Roosevelt, at the end of WW II, proposed a "Second Bill of Rights"--an "Economic Bill of Rights", which offered a new, post-war, standard of life, a "new basis for security and prosperity", for all Americans. He was serious about these "Rights", and this new, higher standard of life. These are "economic rights" that, by law, cannot be taken away by the private sector, and that give all Americans a "new stake" in American Democracy---health insurance, education, homes, etc.
In 2024, like past years, the Democratic Party has forgotten and set-aside Roosevelt's above new, economic agenda for the United States----and--- coupled with a failure to develop a realistic, coherent, long-term economic agenda, to restore American Industry (and failure to defeat the "America First" agenda)---has paid the political price for that neglect, over the years, including, the General Elections of 2024!
Finally, in my view, to win elections, again, and to move the United States forward, again, the Democratic Party must offer a new economic-social agenda---one that can defeat the Republican Party's "America First" economic-social agenda; and one that offers all Americans---in Iowa and all states---a new, more secure, more prosperous, and more equitable standard and quality of life.
The "West" did not end in American History, in the 1890s, with the passing-away of free lands. In 2024, it is still there-- but in a new form-- for us and our children and grandchildren---our "New West" is before us-- the new, unexplored, wilderness-frontier of tomorrow and the future! Each new day is a "New West!"
Richard Sherzan
All of these communities have been hit hard with a loss of population and jobs. A lot of rural Iowa sees the growth in the Des Moines metro and blames them for their losses. It's difficult for any Democratic candidate with ties to Des Moines to get support in these areas.
I should have mentioned the aging population in most if not all of these communities.
Thanks for another excellent, in-depth presentation about Iowa Politics and the current political predicament of the Democratic Party, including, the Iowa Democratic Party.
In response, I would like to offer the following remarks:
The journalist, Theodore H. White, in the "Author's Note" of his book, "The Making of the President 1964", describes his "image of politics", as "an endless wagon train", which is on "an enormous trek" or journey, where, "at the head of the advance column, the leaders quarrel", and "debate and argue" "about the route" for tomorrow--- "to find where they should go".
At present, after the 2024 General Election, the Democratic Party's political "wagon train" is now engaged in its own debate, about its political route for tomorrow---"to find where they should go".
At the end of the above article, appears the following remark: "Whatever the reasons for the decline, Democrats need to find their footing in Iowa's mid-sized cities...".
Regarding "the reasons for the decline", and the above "footing" problem, I recommend the following articles, and the Report, mentioned therein, which discuss the historical erosion of the manufacturing and industry-related base of "Midwestern 'Factory Towns''. (See articles in Google):
(1) The New York Times, "Democrats Lost the Most in Midwestern 'Factory Towns' Report Says", October 8, 2021
(2) The New Republic, "How Iowa Fell in Love With the Republican Party", June 28, 2022
Bottom line lesson of above articles: The rise and growth of economic stress, uncertainty, and insecurity, in mid-sized and small-town Midwestern cities, like in the United States, generally, parallels with the rise/success of the "America First", and "Make America Great Again" political movement of Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
Democrats, now engaged in their above "wagon train" debate, about the political route, need to be willing to learn from the above lesson.
Briefly, in my view, the Democratic Party, to win again, must create/offer a new economic agenda---one that is politically popular; one that can successfully engage, counter, and defeat the "America First", "Make America Great Again", economic agenda; and one that can successfully engage, counter, and defeat the economic problems of our times.
That, in my view, is the challenge of the Democratic Party, and of American Democracy--going forward!
Richard Sherzan
Nice read. I think u are losing sight of the why. Dems big push on abortion has irritated many. Putting Harris in at last minute, poor choice. Dems ignoring problem with old Joe. Immigration was huge. Illegal drug control, major problem to society. Knowing Dems want more of costly programs. More taxes. Blaming voters without college degrees was bad, no, totally stupid. I can show numerous very successful prosperous businesses with no college degrees employing many WITH college degrees. This one height of stupidity.
The past added to the present. U spent a lot of time putting numbers together but it's almost a waste if you don't get out and find out why, and not with other Dems.
Do Dems want more taxes though, or do they want income tax vs sales taxes and fees for example? I think they need to clarify this.
Iowa Democrats have proposed tax policies that would help middle-income people, as opposed to what Republicans have passed which give the lion's share of the benefits to the wealthiest people and corporations.
Why is it so hard to get the message out?