Recap of another red wave election in Iowa

Nov. 6 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

Laura Belin

Nov 06, 2024

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*View of Donald Trump from behind at one of his last campaign rallies in Reading, Pennsylvania on November 4. First published on the Trump campaign’s Facebook page*.

Six of the last eight general elections in Iowa, six have been GOP landslides. At Bleeding Heartland, I kicked off the “Lessons of 2024” series with my first look at the results in the campaigns for president, Congress, and state legislature.

Spencer Dirks

and I convened at noon on Wednesday for a special post-election edition of our weekly radio show.

The sound file is at the top of this message. You can also subscribe to “KHOI’s Capitol Week” on any podcast platform. The full archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.

Topics we covered:

Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by a 13-point margin with 97 counties reporting, a more convincing win than he managed in Iowa before. Turnout was not quite as high as in 2020, but was well above the 2016 level. He also flipped Scott County (Quad Cities area), giving him 94 out of 99 counties. That’s the worst showing for a Democratic presidential nominee here since George McGovern in 1972. We talked about the vote shift in his direction;
The final Iowa Poll by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom made news worldwide, but turned out to be way off. We shared the statement Ann Selzer released on election night, and I talked about where things may have gone wrong;
Selzer made time for Julie Gammack’s Iowa Potluck on Monday, and I asked about her methodology and the findings at the Congressional district level, which were a red flag that the poll had too many Democrats in the respondent pool. You can listen to that podcast here (my question starts around the 7:30 mark);
I didn’t mention this on the radio, but in 2018 I interviewed Selzer about her sampling methods, and she explained why she doesn’t look backward, adjusting her data based on partisanship or recalled vote from past elections. Here’s that link;
We walked through the results from all four Congressional districts, starting with how Zach Nunn won in the third district. Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam appears to have held his own, but the top of the GOP ticket was a lot to overcome;
In the first district, Christina Bohannan massively outperformed Harris and as of this morning, trailed by about 400 votes. Since we recorded the show, the last county finished reporting, and unofficial results now show Mariannette Miller-Meeks ahead by 799 votes (50.0 percent to 49.8 percent);
It’s worth remembering that Miller-Meeks was finally elected to Congress on her fourth attempt. Given the incumbent’s weakness with a segment of the GOP base, Bohannan may want to consider a third campaign in 2026, when Trump won’t be on the ballot;
The Selzer poll raised hopes for some Democrats in the second Congressional district, but Ashley Hinson defeated Sarah Corkery by more than 60,000 votes (a margin of more than 15 percent);
The IA-04 results were similar to 2022, with a 2:1 win for Republican Randy Feenstra over Ryan Melton. His margin of around 126,000 votes reflects the enormous GOP voter registration advantage in the area. I was intrigued to see that even though two candidates (conservative Republican Kevin Virgil and Libertarian Charles Aldrich) were encouraging voters to write in their names, the total write-in vote across the 36 counties was only 1,112 (0.3 percent);
An equipment malfunction in a dozen or so precincts delayed the tabulation of ballots in Story County. Auditor Lucy Martin plans to conduct an administrative recount later this week;
Senator Chuck Grassley is in line to chair the Judiciary Committee again, now that Republicans won a majority of seats. He described his priorities in social media posts the morning after the election;
Senator Joni Ernst confirmed earlier this year that she plans to seek the third-ranking Senate GOP leadership position. Her main competition is expected to be Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas;
We walked through the most important Iowa Senate race results. Check out my Bleeding Heartland article for more details. Two close elections are headed for recounts, but if the results hold (they usually do in Iowa legislative races), the Senate would move from a 34-16 GOP majority to 35-15 next year;
We covered some important Iowa House election results. I have more on those at Bleeding Heartland and previously covered each district’s political profile and main campaign themes. If all current results hold, Republicans would move from a 64-36 majority to 67-33 next year;
Republicans targeted six Democratic-held Iowa House districts and captured three of them, winning an open seat in Mason City and defeating incumbents Molly Buck (Ankeny), Sue Cahill (Marshalltown), and Chuck Isenhart (Dubuque);
Two targeted Democrats won another term last night: Heather Matson in Ankeny, and Josh Turek in Council Bluffs. I haven’t crunched the numbers yet, but I would guess Turek will turn out to be this year’s legislative candidate with the most crossover appeal. Trump carried his district in 2020 and surely expanded that margin this year;
We touched on what Republicans may do with their larger legislative majorities, and will talk more about that next week. Tips are welcome, and I’ll keep them confidential;
Iowans approved two constitutional amendments by large majorities;
Since our neighbors in Missouri just approved an abortion rights amendment, and Nebraskans voted against a school voucher program, we explained why Iowans can’t force a statewide vote on those issues;
All 69 judges up for retention will keep their jobs. Iowa Supreme Court Justice David May received about 63 percent yes votes, which is not unprecedented but much lower than usual. I suspect that’s mainly because of his position on recent abortion cases;
Of the four Iowa Court of Appeals judges, Samuel Langholz received the lowest percentage of yes votes (just under 65 percent). I didn’t mention this on the radio, but I voted against Langholz for reasons discussed here;
I wonder whether Governor Kim Reynolds will consider State Senator Brad Zaun, who lost his re-election bid and has a good relationship with Trump, as her new lieutenant governor. No matter whom she picks, I expect her to seek another term in 2026;
Total turnout in Iowa is in the 1.65 million range, which is a bit below the 2020 level of 1.7 million, but is considerably higher than the turnout in 2016. Kudos to Substacker Michael McDonald, who forecast turnout in all 50 states and was remarkably close to the mark for Iowa;
Spencer pointed out that the 2028 presidential race begins today. I think Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro will be a Democratic contender, but I doubt we’ll see much of him in Iowa. The DNC is “not going back” to putting the caucuses at the front of the nominating calendar.