Zach Nunn's narrative arc and lots more Iowa campaign news

July 14 edition of "KHOI's Capitol Week"

President Donald Trump with Representative Zach Nunn on July 3. Photo originally published on Nunn’s campaign Facebook page on July 5

Heads up to readers in southeast Iowa: I’m giving the keynote at a fundraiser for the League of Women Voters of Southeast Iowa on Wednesday, July 23. Come to the Cornerstone Event Center in Burlington (1204 Washington St.) from 4-7 PM for a light supper, decadent desserts, and my review of Iowa’s 2026 campaign landscape.

For those within striking distance of Ames: friends are hosting an event for me on Tuesday, July 29, at Alluvial Brewing (3715 W 190th St in Ames), from 5-7:30 PM. Although this is a fundraiser to support my work, no donations are required to attend. All are welcome to hear me talk about my reporting journey and take questions about upcoming elections, the state legislature, state government, or anything else happening in Iowa politics.

Let’s get to the July 14 edition of “KHOI’s Capitol Week.” Spencer Dirks and I spent most of our time discussing news from the campaign trail. The audio file is at the top of this post. You can also find the show through podcast platforms or smart speakers. The full show archive (going back to February 2021) is available on KHOI’s website.

Here’s the written summary, for those who would rather read than listen. If your email provider truncates this post, you can read it without interruption here.

Zach Nunn’s bizarre trial balloon

Representative Zach Nunn (IA-03) had an entire narrative arc since our last show. Last Monday evening, the Des Moines Register reported that Nunn was reconsidering whether to run for governor. In a sense, that wasn’t surprising. When he ruled out running for governor in the spring, most people (myself included) assumed Attorney General Brenna Bird would run and would land Donald Trump’s endorsement. That would have closed the door for other Republican contenders.

So when Bird ruled out running for governor in early July, that changed the equation. The Register’s story cited “a senior source within Nunn's operation” who said Bird’s decision “changes the dynamics of the race tremendously," adding that “in our view, the primary is reset."

Side note, because this is a pet peeve for me: I don’t like the “on background” sourcing that is prevalent in conventional journalism. If you want to talk to me off the record, that’s fine. But if you want your viewpoint reflected in my story, you need to give me something on the record. I don’t like quoting “a senior source” or “someone familiar with so-and-so’s thinking” or whatever. This wasn’t a topic that would require shielding someone’s identity for their protection.

Anyway, several national media reported last week that senior Republicans didn’t like the idea of Nunn turning the third Congressional district into an open seat. Here’s Axios with more of that “on background” sourcing I hate: “The White House is expected to deliver a strong message to Nunn, emphasizing the importance of holding the House, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.”

On Friday, President Donald Trump broke the news about Nunn’s plans on Truth Social:

Just spoke to Great Combat Veteran Zach Nunn, and he is committed to the mission of, HOLDING THE MAJORITY. He is a team player, with a tremendous future — And 100% MAGA. Zach needs our full support to win Iowa-03. He is fighting for the Farmer, and everything else that Iowa stands for, including, of course, Lower Taxes, and our always under siege Second Amendment. Zach Nunn has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!

I had to laugh, seeing Nunn described as “100% MAGA.” He backed Jeb Bush for president in 2015, and did not endorse any candidate before the 2024 caucuses.

Nunn’s campaign quickly confirmed he’ll seek a third term in IA-03.

Let's be clear: Nunn was never going to win a GOP primary for governor. I don’t understand who would be his constituency in a statewide primary. So I can’t fathom why his team would put this idea out there, only to have Nunn back down as soon as Trump told him what to do.

My read is that Nunn’s internal polling must be pretty bad. Last week some of the national media referenced a rumor I heard in the spring, but didn’t mention on the show (because I didn’t have it on the record). After Representative Randy Feenstra made clear he was planning to run for governor, Nunn seriously considered moving to the fourth Congressional district, perhaps to Fort Dodge.

I didn’t know why anyone would think Republicans in northwest Iowa would nominate a carpet-bagger from Polk County. But Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections, Kate Santaliz of Axios, and Ally Mutnick of Punchbowl News all noted that Nunn had thought about bolting for IA-04.

That idea, combined with last week’s trial balloon about running for governor, suggests to me that Nunn is not confident he can be re-elected in IA-03.

I haven’t seen any recent polling from that race. Most forecasters currently rate the third district as “lean Republican.” I see it as more of a toss-up race. Three-quarters of the voters are in Polk and Dallas counties, where Democrats are well-organized. Nunn didn’t overperform the top of the ticket in 2024, which suggests he could be in trouble if the national environment favors Democrats next fall.

To me, the head fake on running for governor makes Nunn look worse than if his team had never suggested he might seek that office.

State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott, one of the Democrats running against Nunn, sent out an email to supporters on Saturday with the subject line, "Errand boys do what they’re told." She wrote, “Let’s call it what it is: a signal that Nunn’s marching orders come from Trump — not from the Iowans he’s supposed to represent. And now, national Republicans are going to do whatever it takes to keep this seat red.”

The other Democratic candidate in IA-03, State Representative Jennifer Konfrst, reminded her supporters in an email that she drove the Iowa House majority leader to move to another district in 2018 to avoid running against her.

The only plus I see for Nunn is that Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” neutralizes the threat of a serious GOP primary challenger.

Aboard Air Force One on July 3 (from Nunn’s campaign Facebook page)

Joni Ernst retirement watch

We spent some time on the story Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade published in Politico last Thursday: “Senate Republicans are bracing for another one of their colleagues to possibly call it quits: Joni Ernst.” The same article cited two unnamed sources as saying, “Rep. Ashley Hinson is highly likely to enter the race if Ernst bows out.”

We’ve mentioned before that Ernst delayed her Roast and Ride event (usually held in June) until October. She hasn’t been scheduling as many events around the state this summer, compared to last year. Bade mentioned on the MSNBC program “Morning Joe,” “Behind the scenes, I’m hearing from Senate Republicans that they just don’t see the fight in her anymore.”

I wrote about this in more depth over the weekend. Politico mentioned several reasons many people believe Ernst won’t seek a third term:

• she lost her role on the Senate GOP leadership team last November

• she faced an intense pressure campaign after she didn’t immediately commit to supporting Pete Hegseth as defense secretary

• she aligned herself closely with Elon Musk and his DOGE project, but now he’s on the outs with Trump and threatening to primary Republicans who voted for the budget reconciliation bill

• she has received an avalanche of negative attention since her fateful town hall in Parkersburg and subsequent non-apology video

I would add two more points. She’s going to face at least one GOP primary challenger, maybe two. Furthermore, ProPublica’s blockbuster investigation (about ethical concerns surrounding Ernst’s personal relationships with military liaisons) didn’t reach a mass audience in Iowa after its publication in March. But if Ernst runs for Senate again, outside groups may feature the allegations in television or digital advertising.

Spencer and I talked about Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) as a possible replacement candidate in the Senate race. I wrote more about that scenario over the weekend. She would be the early front-runner in a GOP primary, but if a MAGA candidate runs with Trump’s support (perhaps Matt Whitaker, currently the U.S. ambassador to NATO), Hinson might have a tough race for the the nomination.

Jim Carlin releases first digital ad

Former State Senator Jim Carlin, who is running for U.S. Senate again, released a digital ad last week, which you can watch here. In that spot, Carlin says, “Iowa doesn’t need another senator who says one thing and does another. I think people are tired of phony politicians. […] We need straight shooters. We need reformers. We need men and women with a spine.”

The video features four current Republican legislators: State Senators Doug Campbell and Kevin Alons and State Representatives Eddie Andrews and Samantha Fett.

I still see Ernst heavily favored to win the GOP primary, if she seeks another term. The Right Side Broadcasting Network interviewed Carlin at Trump’s July 3 rally in Des Moines. He voiced a lot of right-wing “America First” talking points, but the bottom line is that he was in the audience. Carlin wasn’t invited to speak at Trump’s rally, whereas Ernst was one of the warm-up speakers. That suggests to me that the president does not intend to endorse a primary challenger against Ernst.

I could easily see Carlin getting 30-40 percent of the primary vote (he received 26.5 percent against Chuck Grassley in the 2022 primary), but it’s very hard to see him beating Ernst. Especially since Joshua Smith (who launched the “You suck, Joni!” digital ad) still plans to seek the GOP nomination, according to his social media posts. That would splinter the vote on the right, making it easier for the incumbent to win with a plurality of the primary vote.

A quick reminder: three Democrats are actively campaigning for that U.S. Senate seat: Nathan Sage, State Representative J.D. Scholten, and State Senator Zach Wahls. Des Moines school board member Jackie Norris and State Representative Josh Turek haven’t ruled out running in the Democratic primary.

Randy Feenstra lines up more support for governor

Randy Feenstra id officially still “exploring” the governor’s race. But landed a bunch of endorsements last week, including from Ernst and Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01).

I found it strange for Ernst to wade into the wide-open GOP primary, and wonder whether she spoke out to discourage Nunn from running for governor.

Lieutenant Governor Chris Cournoyer, a former state senator who is running for state auditor in 2026, also endorsed Feenstra for governor. So did 22 current members of the Iowa House and Senate. I read this as a strong message to State Senator Mike Bousselot: many Republicans who have worked with him would prefer not to see him become governor.

Bousselot hints he’s running for governor

Undeterred, last Friday Bousselot shared the Des Moines Register story about Nunn deciding to stay in Congress. He commented, “It’s almost time. Iowa First, Iowa Always,” with the hashtag for the governor’s race.

Clearly Bousselot wants to get away from his Ankeny-based Iowa Senate district 21, a swing district that will be a top target for Democrats in 2026. Early this year, Bousselot seemed to be gearing up to run for state auditor. But Cournoyer decided to run for that office after Kim Reynolds ruled out another term as governor. I saw Bousselot as a likely contender for attorney general before Bird opted out of the governor’s race.

Former Governor Terry Branstad has reportedly been helping Bousselot raise money. Althea Cole, a conservative columnist for the Cedar Rapids Gazette, pointed out on last week’s “On Iowa Politics” podcast that the font on Bousselot’s campaign logo is the same font used for Branstad’s signs during his last two campaigns for governor.

I don’t see Bousselot getting much traction in a statewide primary.

To recap the GOP field for governor: Feenstra is obviously running, even though he is technically in the exploratory phase. Bousselot is also exploring, while former State Representative Brad Sherman and current State Representative Eddie Andrews are running. (Incidentally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Andrews decide next year he’ll run for the Iowa House again.)

State Representative Bobby Kaufmann officially ruled out running for governor a few days ago, when he confirmed he will seek the position of House majority leader. (As we mentioned last week, Matt Windschitl is running for Congress in IA-04.) House Speaker Pat Grassley confirmed in late June that he won’t run for governor either.

Bob Vander Plaats sees Sand as “compelling” candidate

Brianne Pfannenstiel wrote up Bob Vander Plaats’ remarks to a conservative audience last week.

“Rob Sand is a compelling Democrat candidate,” Vander Plaats told members of the Westside Conservative Club on Wednesday, July 9. “Churchgoer, gun toter, state auditor, taxpayers’ watchdog. Sounds a little bit like us, right? And he's going to have kind of this commonsense message as well. And he's going to be exceptionally well funded.”

Some of my Republican sources agree that Sand would be a formidable candidate for governor. Others are confident the GOP nominee will win. Election forecasters rate this race either lean Republican or likely Republican. I see it as likely Republican because of the GOP’s massive voter registration advantage and history of higher turnout in Iowa midterms.

I don’t know whether Vander Plaats (who heads The FAMiLY Leader organization) will endorse a candidate in the GOP primary for governor. He did support Feenstra in the 2020 primary against Steve King in IA-04, but there is no obvious favorite for social conservatives in the governor’s race. I don’t think a Vander Paats endorsement carries a lot of weight with MAGA voters anyway.

Democrat Taylor Wettach running in IA-01

A fourth Democrat is running against Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s first district. Taylor Wettach is a seventh-generation Iowan who grew up in Muscatine. He has been practicing law on the east coast but moved back to Muscatine a few months ago after resigning from one of the big law firms that capitulated to Trump to avoid punitive executive orders.

I shared some highlights from my interview with Wettach, which you can watch here:

Wettach kept returning to the idea of a “fresh voice” and turning the page on what has happened in IA-01.

The other three Democrats running in IA-01 are Christina Bohannan (the nominee in 2022 and 2024), Travis Terrell, and Bob Krause. Bohannan is clearly the front-runner.

Wettach claims to have raised more than $175,000 already, most of which can be spent before the primary. So he should be able to compete district-wide. He repeatedly referred to new perspectives, along with paying attention to smaller cities and rural areas. That seems to be his angle, rather than highlighting any substantive differences with Bohannan on the issues.

Travis Terrell is running a more progressive campaign, with a platform similar to issues Bernie Sanders has championed. He’s been active in protests against ICE.

I haven’t seen much activity from Krause since he launched his latest campaign.

Democrat Lindsay James may run in IA-02

State Representative Lindsay James of Dubuque told reporters last week that she’s seriously considering running for Congress in the second district. Democrats haven’t had a declared candidate here since Kevin Techau suspended his campaign on June 30.

James is serving her fourth term in the legislature, representing part of Dubuque. She first ran for the Iowa House in 2018, the same year Abby Finkenauer ran successfully for Congress. She’s an ordained Presbyterian pastor and chaplain, very well spoken, and has been House minority whip. This spring, she competed to be House minority leader. She has more experience with fundraising than Techau.

Speaking to the Cedar Rapids Gazette and Des Moines Register, James harshly criticized Hinson’s vote for the budget reconciliation bill, framing it as tax cuts for billionaires at the expense of other people’s health care.

Having a strong base in Dubuque could be helpful for Democrats. It’s the third largest county in the Congressional district and an example of a longtime Democratic stronghold along the Mississippi River that has drifted toward Republicans during the Trump era.

I mentioned on the show that Kathy Dolten recently filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission indicating that she’ll run as a Democrat in IA-02. When we recorded, she hadn’t announced. But I saw Tuesday morning that Dolten confirmed to the Cedar Rapids Gazette that she’s running for Congress. She was a Lt. Colonel in the Army Nurse Corps for many years and retired last year as Dean of Nursing at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids.

As mentioned above, we assume Hinson is running for re-election in IA-02, but there’s a chance she will run for U.S. Senate instead. I haven’t heard about other Republicans who would run here if it becomes an open seat.

Lynn Evans rules out running in IA-04

We called it last week: State Senator Lynn Evans seemed unlikely to be able to raise enough money to be a serious contender in the IA-04 Republican primary. Indeed, Evans confirmed in a social media post that he will run for re-election to the Iowa Senate, not for Congress, in 2026.

As we’ve previously reported, Iowa House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl is running here, and I think he will be hard to beat in a primary. I was fascinated by Windschitl’s comment to one interviewer that he has never visited Washington, DC. That will provide a strong contrast to Chris McGowan, the longtime Siouxland Chamber of Commerce leader who’s also running for Congress in IA-04. McGowan has been to DC many times to lobby for area’s interest with members of Congress.

I mentioned on the show that I wasn’t aware of any Republican candidates other than Windschitl and McGowan. I saw later that Kyle Larsen, a farmer and land appraiser, is also running in IA-04. We’ll talk about him on next week’s show.

Ashley WolfTornabane running in IA-04

We reported in June that Democrat Ryan Melton was suspending his campaign in Iowa’s fourth district for personal reasons. But early this month, Ashley WolfTornabane of Storm Lake launched her own “grassroots campaign” in IA-04. In her official announcement, she thanked Melton for mentoring her. Excerpt from that statement:

"The Iowa we see today is not the Iowa I grew up in. We have fewer family farms, small towns are shrinking, rural healthcare access is inadequate, our economy ranks among the worst in the nation, and years of underfunding have taken a toll on our once-excellent education system. This is not the Iowa we know and love - it’s time for real change.”

Ashley WolfTornabane is a 35-year-old stay-at-home mother of two who previously served her public school system as an Instructional Assistant. Before that she was the Director of Christian Education at the church she was raised in and actively attends. Ashley understands that Iowans are tired of being ignored by politicians who serve billionaires instead of the people. That’s why she launched her campaign for Iowa’s 4th Congressional District for the U.S. House of Representatives in her hometown during Storm Lake’s beloved Fourth of July parade - a celebration of freedom, community, and hope.

I have heard that some other Democrats may be considering this race, but none have announced yet.

Parties select candidates for Iowa Senate district 1 special

Voters in Senate district 1, covering most of Sioux City, plus some rural areas and the small town of Lawton, will elect a new senator on August 26, following the untimely death of Republican State Senator Rocky De Witt. Last Tuesday, a Republican special convention nominated a young political consultant, Christopher Prosch. On Wednesday, a Democratic convention nominated community activist Catelin Drey.

I interviewed Drey last week, and you can watch our conversation here. She fell in love with Sioux City while attending Morningside College and plans to focus on bread and butter issues like affordable housing, child care, and education. She told me, "The number one issue in Sioux City right now is that we are a property tax poor district in terms of school funding."

I was surprised Republicans selected Prosch, who’s never run for office before, over Woodbury County Supervisor Dan Bittinger. Usually you want to field a candidate who’s previously won an election. In terms of candidate quality, this race reminds me of the Iowa Senate district 35 special election from January.

Prosch’s extremist views will be a central campaign theme for Democrats. Iowa Starting Line’s Zachary Oren Smith covered some of the ideas the Republican has promoted on social media or podcasts, from standard election denier fare to 9/11 conspiracy theories and abortion as worse than the Holocaust. (The candidate has taken some of those posts down.)

As I’ve written at Bleeding Heartland, Senate district 1 is a Republican-leaning district, but Trump only carried it by around 11 points in 2024. The Woodbury GOP has tried to depict Drey is an out of touch extremist who launched her campaign website too soon after De Witt’s passing. I’m skeptical that will be a winning message.

My impression from my recent visit to Sioux City is that local Democrats are fired up. If we see the same kind of overperformance here as in the three other special elections for the Iowa legislature this year, Drey should win. The fundamentals favor Prosch, though.

Grassley unaware of gambling tax change in reconciliation bill

We had just a minute to flag a follow-up to that big budget reconciliation bill. Igor Bobic reported for the Huffington Post that some Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee weren’t aware of language inserted to reduce how much people can deduct in gambling losses from 100 percent to 90 percent. The change could be costly for some gamblers.

Iowa’s own Senator Chuck Grassley told Bobic, “If you’re asking me how it got in there, no, I don’t know.”

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Republicans pass a stand-alone bill to fix that change.

Thanks so much for reading or listening! Spencer and I will be back next week.